LC

huh, can you elaborate? OK so this is a totally half-baked futuristic scenario, but what happens to the economy when the marginal cost of production approaches zero? Let's take Nike, in say 100 years (or however long). The world has fully transitioned to solar power and the price of oil has plummeted to practically nothing. The COGS of a Nike shoe is freakin' miniscule. They've got robots handling 99% of production at lightning fast speeds at mini-factories to minimize shipping costs. If the total cost of Nike shoe is $10 today, let's say its $0.25 in this futuristic world. And it's not just Nike with minuscule costs of production, it's across the whole developed world. Self-driving cars has ensured auto insurance doesn't exist. Insurance brokers? There's an app for that. Manufacturing is about as hands-off as it gets. Planes fly themselves. Improved satellites mean the cost for a cell phone carrier is practically nothing for incredible bandwidth. The advancement of technology has made the cost of resources and production super low. So a lot of people are not working in these areas, not making a salary, but on whole their quality of life is greater than it is today. But perhaps their wages are much lower. Does this mean the market price of a Nike shoe is going to drop from $150 to $20? Monetarily this reduces the discounted present value of Nike. But economically they are still just as valuable. On a whole what does that world look like on a monetary vs. economic level (price vs. value)? /super rambly post

"Value" functions in a world of classic macroeconomics: the distribution of limited resources. What happens when technology and society advances to the point where "limited" resourced become much less limited?

Buddy was a programmer for Rentech. Cited Simons as a total pr!ck based on a party he held for the firm on his yacht.

How well the private businesses function post-Warren.

Haha, sorry it came off like that, I wrote that last post after about 4 old fashioneds last night on an empty stomach! Much love, Nate!

Or perhaps he simply prefers to have a few cash sales because there's no traceable documentation which could trip him up when he fails to report the revenue from that job to the IRS. It's a nice little boon to his financial situation to charge you $5k to do your roof, not report the revenue and then apply the $3k of costs (for which he will certainly have documentation) against the revenue that he must declare from the clients who do pay him by cheque. But at least the explanation that he provided to you is less sleazy than the simpler alternative. Seriously, this is the correct reason. Supplier credit? Give me a break, that's being naive. He's worked with that same truck driver for months/years. He says listen, I'll pay you when I get paid. Either do the job and get paid after I get paid, or don't do the job and don't get paid at all. The truck driver knows that. And he's buying materials out of pocket from Home Depot, whether you pay him by cash or check. He's giving you a break on cash because it causes him less of a headache with taxes and dealing with cash flow. This guy is a contractor who would rather be on his couch than your roof. He looks you over once, and figures really quickly how much of a break he needs to give u to cough up in cash. I'm guessing on a 5K job it's about $200 bucks. $300 if you endeared yourself to him and asked about his family and shared a cigarette and beer with him. Supplier credit? C'mon now.

Let's be real, cash is less efficient in 99.9% of scenarios. Yes if civilization combusts MAYBE cash will be more useful, but really only for a week or two tops. In reality, the gov't will step in and stabilize things. Unless you think the Oregon militia is going to step into that vacuum of power. LOL.

Never use a debit card at a strip club. I had my Amex double-charged and had to send the Amex mafia after them. The only people I trust to go toe-to-toe with strip club operators are those responsible for managing large retail credit portfolios.

I use cash only for paying at restaurants because charge-backs kill the tip rate when using plastic. Bartenders/baristas tend to take better care of you due to this.

if they're up on the quality scale (GARPy), i'd be interested.

browse bizbuysell and see what u can find in terms of the private marketplace. i remember about a year ago seeing a concrete flooring company doing 1MM profits selling for 5MM. the owner was moving out of state and was willing to stay on a month to teach buyer. maybe 5x earnings is not a great price but at the least it tells the entrepreneur who wants to hire a few flooring guys, rent some equipment, etc. where opportunity exists. also if you know real estate but don't have the capital for a down payment, there are coffee shops/delis/etc for sale at decent prices. if you think the neighborhood is growing in population or income you can make a good deal, again with the work. then again a lot of people want to just get rich sitting in their armchairs.

They're not, in fact they help regulate proper androgen levels. I'd suggest examine.com for supplement/diet information: https://examine.com/faq/is-saturated-fat-bad-for-me/

if i win i'm buying all the growth stocks!

pricing power.

My vibe these days is to buy large-cap, mostly household name companies without huge valuations (30+ P/E), without massive, regular capital needs (think auto manufacturers, railroads, etc.) and without obsolete business models (think Pitney-Bowes). Set it and forget it. Not a lot of people are going to compound at 26%/year. Not born into the right decade, or have the single-mindedness, or connections, or plain luck. Buy Berkshire, the S&P, or maybe a basket of some quality S&P companies. Sit back, spend your time and effort on family, friends, career, hobbies, etc., and live a balanced and generally happy life.

LOL. Of course oil has intrinsic value: without oil nobody goes anywhere. If you believe that businesses have intrinsic value - and I guess you do because you mention "cash flows" - then you should realize that without oil pretty much all your businesses have no intrinsic value either (there are few exceptions perhaps). It's amazing how for people with a single hammer ("cash flows") everything looks like a nail... ::) I agree with Jurgis. Intrinsic value is not a PV calculation. Nike sells sneakers. Do the sneakers themselves have no value the same way oil has no value? Of course not, they make millions (billions?) of people's lives easier by protecting their feet.

Same for me, bought one for my sister-in-law as well because it's proved such a good value.

I find that the subject matter determines the comfort of the chair.

So I'll just give my thinking, I graduated ~6 months ago from a grad school with about 40K of "student debt". Now, I have cash in the bank to pay this off today if I wanted, I had the cash before I applied to school from saving for years. I said, screw paying for grad school in cash: I'm taking out loans, and sticking that money in the stock market. Turned out to be a good decision (probably 80% luck, 19% copying this board, 1% me being functional enough to navigate an online brokerage account). But now having graduated, it's apparently time to pay it back, and I'm in the same boat as your friends from the poker table. Heck I'm not even sure if I should pay it back. What are "they" going to do, come after me with a bat? Or maybe I just pay the minimum and kick the can down the road as long as possible. Maybe the gov't will eat the bill in 15 years. Why pay it back in that case? Maybe lock the interest rate, and sit on it. And you know, the only reason I'd consider this is because what you mentioned is so prevalent. NOBODY is paying these things, so the ones that do are the suckers at the table.

Are you talking about silicon valley bank? IIRC when they made loans to these tech co's they received warrants, which gave them exposure to tech equity valuations. Those valuations shot up in the 90s.

I'm not sure if they will, but they should. Government policy allowed banks to lend absurd amounts to anyone, because borrowers can't default on it. So the banks lent. And schools raised their prices in turn. Allowing more of a free market would have created a totally different landscape than what we have now. Everyone wanting to study 19th century poetry could still do it, just without 150K of debt. The government failed.

JBSS

What makes you think NYC RE prices need to correct, rather than wages? There is "tinder" on that side as well: record corporate profit margins (or so I hear), low tax rates paid by corporations/wealthy individuals, record high income-inequality, etc.

-8% I'm grateful it's not worse due to big losses on zinc, aiq, lukoy, fhco. I think I just suck at doing cursory valuation on small(er) caps. Didn't fully know the risks I was taking, pretty much, and how fragile the businesses of most small-caps are. Fiat carried the portfolio. well, prevented something like 40% losses haha. Thx again Sergio.

Hello, nice to have you here and thanks for introducing yourself. Happy new years!