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asterisk

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  1. I believe the concerns with her is that she is not going to be the one to have the willpower for a sustained fight for R&R. Additionally, to my knowledge Thompson has never really stated an interest in pursuing R&R. I agree that 2022 will be interesting and you provided a great concise summary. Part of me is hoping with get below $2 on the high dividends for purchases.
  2. FNMAT and soon other series. Guess I like the pain at this point.
  3. Sandra Thompson will be nominated by Biden. Shares sold off modestly yesterday and have continued today. The reality is admin hasn’t been on the table and likely never will be without being forced. I expect the shares to trade down and then we will rally up to Lamberth.
  4. Reports of future changes to the PSPA... https://www.americanbanker.com/news/lenders-urge-biden-to-remove-gse-cap-on-high-risk-loans Caps on certain loans answer cash window was insisted by Mnuchin.
  5. I didnt see this TV, can you provide link? https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-Authorizes-More-than-$1-Billion-for-Affordable-Housing-Funds.aspx While annoying, hasn't it becoming consensus that affordable housing will be the bargaining chip?
  6. Not sure the point of chasing the lower yields at this point in the game. IMHO positioning to the highest yield amid the JPS stack is the best position, although at a small premium.
  7. it's not a slam dunk and many will exit but the reasons would be a) the low price b) potential court victories and their impact on stock price even if still in conservatorship and c) Tsy might want to move the ball forward at some point for progress / collect their billions for pet projects. I have no intentions to exit my position. While Yellen/Biden were briefed on the LA, what's to say they don't decide to make another agreement?
  8. What are the reasons to stay in this investment? On a first look at what came out today there are a lot of roadblocks and we become dependent on two parties... treasury and JPS. Each with their own motivations. To me the whole the preferred shares could be worth $40 is dangerous. We currently have a FHFA who just got screwed by Mnuchin and was ready to make significant progress. We have less than 1/2 a year till we potentially have an unfriendly FHFA director.
  9. Good points. However, with the size of his investment it is doubtful there was enough volume to keep trading it. Also, Paulson per his prior investments (housing) is not afraid to stick it out. Good luck to all There is $16mm in ADV across the 2 most liquid preferreds (FNMAS and FMCKJ) before accounting for any of the other series. Over the course of 4 years, wouldn't be too difficult to make some $. Again - I have no idea and certainly not trying to accuse. I'm just starting to do a post-mortem on alternative explanations so I can at least learn something here. Ex-ante I think a lot of the "Mnuchin won't act" were surface level opinions that may prove to be correct, but never thought through specific incentives like the one I mentioned above. Right for the wrong reasons. But all that matters in this game is the result. Thats a valid point. Although seems like peanuts for the "potential" overall prize. I think a debt of gratitude is owed the significant contributors on here. This board could be used as a case study. Ahead of tomorrow I would like to thank you all for the insights.
  10. Good points. However, with the size of his investment it is doubtful there was enough volume to keep trading it. Also, Paulson per his prior investments (housing) is not afraid to stick it out. Good luck to all
  11. What value does this add? Unless you have skin in the game this type of post spams the board that includes incredible analysis by Midas, Luke, Chris, etc. No disrespect, but 4th quarter dunking adds nothing to the group. It does add value. He is making the right judgement call here. Mick Mulvaney just resigned. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/mick-mulvaney-resigns-from-trump-administration-expects-others-to-follow.html Okay- Mnuchin said he will remain. So I added value too. This is politics related, wrong forum.
  12. What value does this add? Unless you have skin in the game this type of post spams the board that includes incredible analysis by Midas, Luke, Chris, etc. No disrespect, but 4th quarter dunking adds nothing to the group.
  13. Also, Warner and Crapo took Mnuchin out to dinner Wednesday night, after the hearing in which Warner said nothing negative about GSE's and Crapo was positive. Forgot to give link: On Wednesday night, Senators @MarkWarner & @MikeCrapo took Secretary Mnuchin to dinner, two sources tell me. Among other topics, they discussed the bipartisan COVID relief framework. Warner is one of the Dems most involved - so here's another way lawmakers are working the WH. Thanks Luke! Likely GSE reform came up. As Otherpa has said very well, there is no reason for Mnuchin to care about GSE reform besides helping out some friends. We are seeing a slow burn of cards starting to play out. As Cherzeca said where there is smoke is indicating fire. The fire is getting bigger little by little.
  14. Calabria was a former chief of staff of the senate banking committee, to which he clearly maintains fealty. he will likely not be predisposed to accommodate Ms. Waters and the HFSC, especially when she notes that Calabria's tenure is soon to end...something that he has disputed and may resist next year. the HFSC is the very weak sister to the SBC, and the Chairman of the SBC as recently as Monday told Mnuchin to continue with important steps. but the takeaway as I think you allude to is that the smoke (such as this letter, Bright's letter and Warner/Rounds letter) would indicate that there is fire 100% agree. Exactly my point, it's a continuation of a trend in the last few weeks.
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