LC

A novel use of sewage testing to track coronavirus density:

Yeah this is very surprising given how much he was talking about the Great Depression. He talks to Gates frequently. Gates initially thought 5 years of doom. Now Gates has changed his mind about it and thinks rich countries will be done with virus issue by the end of 2021. Range of outcome has become narrower. I am just speculating here. I agree with this

Curious where you've seen 'severity falling?' Awesome news if so. I'd read that it was unlikely for this virus to mutate/change too quickly (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01315-7) I meant "severity is falling" in regards to Portugal, as corroborated by this post: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/coronavirus/msg425878/#msg425878 No comment on the virus's severity, I am certainly not qualified to opine on that.

Congratulations, you have exhibited exactly why one needs to use data to inform and derive knowledge, rather than blindly follow.

As a Portuguese I can say there was a huge heat wave last month and even though I drank more water than ever I still was dehidrated. Old people tend to dye a lot in this circumpstances. Also the lockdown delayed other diseases management, so we will also have increased mortality for that reason. COVID is under Control except for some places in lisbon and even there it has been falling. We do have mandatory masks in indoor places...until recently there were no covid patients in our local ICU for over 2 months. Interesting, thank you for providing the context. I would imagine dehydration/weather-related items are (partially) controlled for when computing baseline weekly death rates - but as you mention if there are other medical emergencies which were delayed due to COVID, that would not be controlled for. Actually, I was going to ask, "If there is a boardmember in Portugal or Spain..." but I mistakenly assumed there was not. Thank you for correcting my misconception! ;D

Looks like there was some abnormal excess mortality in Portugal & Spain, based on Euromomo. However these statistics lag by aprox 2 weeks. Recent reports indicate COVID severity is falling: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-portugal/portugal-reports-no-coronavirus-deaths-for-first-time-since-march-idUSKCN24Z1VB

Oh buddy, if you know the instapot moves... :)

Hey, Fair enough! Whether it's real or placebo, like the saying goes..."if it's stupid and it works, then it ain't stupid" For me the biggest productivity booster has always been necessity. There's another saying which I love, and it took me a long time to learn: "Life's greatest shortcut is constant effort".

Cashed in my self-imposed last "average down" chip on WFC.

None of this stuff has ever worked for me. With the exception of chemical stimulants (coffee). I figure as long as you're reasonable in your diet, sleep, and health patterns, the rest of this is all placebo.

Ah sorry - I missed your post. I see, you are referring to Trump using "Deaths as a % of Positive Cases" compares to "Deaths as a % of Population". I agree, Trump's statistic is deceitful.

Can you expand on how deaths are being covered up? It's my understanding that individual States are responsible for reporting deaths to the CDC. We live in alternative world these days. ::) What I heard from a friend who is a San Diego ER doctor said his friend is an ER doctor in NY and that they were forced to write death cause to be COVID, for pretty much any death, even including gun shot death. The death number is inflated so the NY state can get more federal funding for this. I am not talking about cause of death, I am talking about number of deaths (used to determine excess mortality statistics which in my opinion are the best indicator of COVID's impact.) Is there any evidence of manipulation in the absolute number of all-cause deaths being reported, is my question.

Can you expand on how deaths are being covered up? It's my understanding that individual States are responsible for reporting deaths to the CDC.

I'm happy to participate in this poll but the question and options are poorly designed. I voted yes for the simple reason that "looking at charts" goes beyond just the market price chart. You can illustrate revenue trends, operating performance trends, profitability, financial structure changes...all over time and between industries, between competitors in the same industry...a large part of how I invest is by "charting" fundamental business performance and trying to understand (or guess) whether it is likely to continue or not, and how much or little the current market price values such performance.

My issue with owning Florida RE is everything is in the flood zone except I think St. Petes. I'm no expert but I think this means your flood insurance rates are astronomical.

Jain seems the closest to Munger out of that bunch. Insurance and fixed income investors are sharp, shrewd folks.

This is my thought as well. They already have a cash problem. Why add to it? I disagree for two reasons: First, I don't think this is a good reason to own an overvalued security. Assuming of course WB thinks Apple is overvalued. Secondly, I don't think they have a cash problem. Having loads of cash isn't a problem, the problem is WB did not use it a few months ago. So if you think they should hold Apple today, then you must also think WB made an error in Mar-Apr not diving into equities head first.

Every immigrant group from day 1 has used home ownership to build and store wealth. It makes sense for a lot of reasons but ultimately in my opinion is a less attractive investment, requiring massive leverage to match other asset class returns.

I think there is a greaterthanzero chance some Berkshire subsidiaries are wound down or divested after Warren. Simply put for a long time, Berkshire's acquisitions were personal commitments between Warren Buffett and the selling owner(s). With Warren gone, that commitment is weaker. Secondly, I think (hope?) there is a muchgreaterthanzero chance the buyback program is expanded. One criticism of WB is he has sheltered us shareholders from his potential replacements. We are only just now getting a feel for Greg Abel as a person, businessman, investor etc. How will he behave once WBCM are not looking over his shoulder? On Apple, this I think is essentially the big consumer staple to replace KO/PG in the Berkshire lineup. I know WB says he never trims positions, but I hope he does at these valuations. How many times has he reminded us about his mistake not selling KO back at 40x earnings or so?

Like a senior citizen without a commode, it depends. Some vacation homes literally pay the years bills in 3 months. Of course those are the most desirable months to live there yourself, so that’s the trade off.

its the mile marker as you drive down US 1 towards key west.

Off to a fly fishing trip, so: Coors light, tin cup & fireball “whiskey”

I recall about...15 or so years ago, AMD put out Intel-killer CPUs. At the time, they were unable to follow-up with enough scale and successive products to stay ahead. It could have been due to lack of capital (economic and human), perhaps that has changed as I know the Ryzen set of processors has been popular for some time, and ATI/Radeon line has always been a strong GPU. I think that was a pretty good acquisition from a tech standpoint from AMD as they brought on a lot of talent and as we have seen, GPU architecture became important for modern processing (bitcoin mining and similar crunching). However on the valuation side, it is a bit nuts. Being very conservative you can get to around 16-17x earnings multiple for INTC, compared to 100+x earning multiple for AMD? The market in my opinion is pricing in some gangbusters growth for AMD. I have not kept up with processing technology for some time so I am not sure what is on the market or what the roadmaps are, but it must be something pretty special to justify that valuation. Now that doesn't mean INTC is a great buy either. If there truly is some transformative event on the horizon where a lot of demand drops off for Intel's products, it could become value-trapish. That is what I would be careful of - personally I think this does need some product/tech expertise to navigate (which I do not have). Although if you put a gun to my head and made me choose, I'd put my money in Intel. The valuation mismatch seems to extreme in my uneducated opinion.

Bought some more Akamai

A great read if you have not done so already: https://edelweissjournal.com/pdfs/EdelweissJournal-019.pdf