LC

That is one of the dumbest things I have ever seen. America picked its administration like I pick disposable kitchen utensils on sale via Temu.

I don't think it's an issue. Remember that Charlie Munger line about having the guts to sit in cash for years? These guys will sit in cash for 5-10 years if they think it's appropriate, it's just their M.O. Who else in the world is willing to do that, especially with these sums? At least Buffett/Munger. No idea about these new guys. That said - I sold down to a single "participation trophy" share of BRK-B. Sure having 300+B in cash is nice, but at 530/share I agreed the folks saying it was closer to overvalued vs. under.

Agree there - Democrats did not vote. Trump won with 27% of the vote. You want to talk about a failure of democracy - only 27% of voters decide an election. Americans simply do not vote. I don't think the Biden admin screwed anyone, I think Democrats were sitting comfortable and didn't get off their butts and go vote. All that said - Trump policies are not pro-middle class.

This from the guy who - for years - resisted all argument to curb wealth inequality. Now you're suddenly concerned? Well, I don't buy it. Trump already played the middle class card. So this bad-faith argument is transparent, and the party-line shilling is no longer effective. Now the people see the reality: MAGA = Losers!

Speaking of G-dubs, who would've thought he was this prescient: https://www.c-span.org/clip/qa/user-clip-george-w-bush-on-dangerous-isms/5159236

I would expect Stumpy Trumpy to veto this bill, if it ever makes it to his golf cart. So they will need a lot of congressional support to pass it. May be difficult with proto-neanderthals like MJT who cling to their plate-gold MAGA ticket.

Bingo - certainly micro factors are at play (headcount reduction, management promising buyback, stable LOBs undervalued by market). But ultimately yes, we're just shooting for half-retarded here.

Welcome to Fraser-alley. Cheap prices but a sketchy neighborhood.

Yeah I kind of agree. Any attempt to 'peer behind the veil' for some 'deep insight' is wishful thinking. That said I design my "straddle" differently - not so much with options but a bit more qualitatively. For example I live in a ski town. If overall wealth and tourism fall - yeah my home price goes down, the pizzeria I own makes less money or just breaks even. But the straddle kicks in: less people skiing and more of the mountains to myself. Worth it for some valuation decrease on assets I don't plan on selling. Same with my employment: Put simply, I do math for a living. Less immigration from India/China, more "manufacturing" back in the US - just means less employment competition and more leverage for me to potentially exert.

The line I heard recently was - "you've made it when you choose what time to wake up every day" Well I schedule all my work shit for post-12pm, so I'll say I'm halfway there. Trump tariffs are knocking down my portfolio a bit, but I've skiied more days post-Jan 20 than Trump has golfed, so he can go screw off Buys today include: SPY (in some limited trading accounts) Fairfax & Fairfax India MGM NVO, RGEN MSGE CASH CPNG Ollamani (sold), CNC (sold)

https://www.latintimes.com/trump-accused-using-chatgpt-create-tariff-plan-after-ai-leads-users-same-formula-so-ai-579899 Trump Accused of Using ChatGPT to Create Tariff Plan After AI Leads Users to Same Formula

I imagine CCP would ignore this Trump proposal, and signal to the rest of the world how weakly it views US under Trump. That would do more to benefit China vs. short-term tariff relief.

No - Fairfax is by far my largest position (~40%). Aecon is/was around a 10-15% position, but the drop from CAD 28->17 has contributed most to the overall portfolio being down ~4%.

YTD down 3.8% - mostly Aecon, buoyed by FFH

@mcliu Oh I'm not disagreeing with you. Re: high value manufacturing - at the very least we could debate that, figure the best ways to promote those industries, even with tariffs (particularly against IP-stealing countries). But that's not what is happening - nor is it what MAGA voted for. Ultimately I think they just want to dish out pain, and they don't care if suffer themselves. I mean, they're practically frothing at the mouth like rabid wolves with imposing tariffs on allies, ICE raids, the about-face re: Ukraine war, "ending" DEI, firing tens of thousands of gov't workers, gutting national institutions...

What happens when a few people collude to ban people they disagree with?

The poor, dumb American minority wants vengeance. They don't want a better standard of living, they don't want peace in Ukraine nor America, they don't want to invest in their communities or country. They just want vengeance and the current GOP reflects this.

100% agree. People talk about things they are passionate about. Censoring the discussion only serves to make people feel like they cannot express themselves, which I think makes this community weaker. People should feel comfortable sharing their opinions- especially about cheap stocks which will make us all wealthier!

Can we please talk about AECON!

Ah, the siren sings yet again

Are our memories so short that we forget 5%+ inflation prints a few years ago? This is what caused FRB to raise rates. I still don't understand the criticism of Powell. He's done a great job IMO.

Powell managed to curb inflation while minimizing impact on employment. Actually he did (and is doing) a pretty good job if you ask me.

I think you'll have to parse any sales release carefully. I would imagine Elon would engage in some sale/repurchase agreement to juice numbers - similar to Tesla's fraud in Canada for 11th hour EV credits.

Sure - let's just ignore American society's massive wealth inequality and gutting of public educational and medical services. Ignore the 1% who are gutting this country for profit - it's all the pronouns fault!

How large did you size it initially? This is a very large, mature business - will take time to integrate and for positive developments to slowly trickle in. I have it sized at ~3.5% currently. The way I see it - there will be points to add on the way up, assuming the terminix integration goes well. Assuming the bull case, I would add 3-4x on the way up, up to a maybe 10% position. And if management is not able to restructure the business, should be able to exit the position without much of an overall portfolio impact.