LC

Off to a fly fishing trip, so: Coors light, tin cup & fireball “whiskey”

I recall about...15 or so years ago, AMD put out Intel-killer CPUs. At the time, they were unable to follow-up with enough scale and successive products to stay ahead. It could have been due to lack of capital (economic and human), perhaps that has changed as I know the Ryzen set of processors has been popular for some time, and ATI/Radeon line has always been a strong GPU. I think that was a pretty good acquisition from a tech standpoint from AMD as they brought on a lot of talent and as we have seen, GPU architecture became important for modern processing (bitcoin mining and similar crunching). However on the valuation side, it is a bit nuts. Being very conservative you can get to around 16-17x earnings multiple for INTC, compared to 100+x earning multiple for AMD? The market in my opinion is pricing in some gangbusters growth for AMD. I have not kept up with processing technology for some time so I am not sure what is on the market or what the roadmaps are, but it must be something pretty special to justify that valuation. Now that doesn't mean INTC is a great buy either. If there truly is some transformative event on the horizon where a lot of demand drops off for Intel's products, it could become value-trapish. That is what I would be careful of - personally I think this does need some product/tech expertise to navigate (which I do not have). Although if you put a gun to my head and made me choose, I'd put my money in Intel. The valuation mismatch seems to extreme in my uneducated opinion.

Bought some more Akamai

A great read if you have not done so already: https://edelweissjournal.com/pdfs/EdelweissJournal-019.pdf

PDH bombed, for sure. You make a fair point - I must have selectively expelled it from my memory ;D

Pretty sure he isn't talking "outside money" shall we say lol. My second choice then would be Sanjeev. Two things matter to me, when selecting a money manager: A long time frame and honest personality.

Well take a look at Florida and Texas' excess deaths: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm They are certainly above the average. As of today, CDC estimates anywhere from 140,000-190,000 deaths associated with COVID, post Feb 2020.

Michael Larson

In vino veritas. Yes, I agree on some semblance of a valuation threshold. But how many times have we said and heard “ah if only”. 35 vs 30 times earnings is not going to make or break the outcome. And it wasn’t a huge purchase - like Greg said I buy often but in small quantities.

I bought a tiny bit of MSFT. Bit the bullet so to speak. Time will tell if it is closer to buying PG in the middle of the century or KO in the 90s

Buying during after hours directly after bad news is usually not a great move. I estimate more often than not, after hours price action lags rather than leads. Particularly during sensational timeframe (eg the day of earnings release).

I used to have a rule...never watch the evening news. yes, this dates me. now, with twitter, etc, you are bombarded with "what's going on in the world". and I am not even talking about finance... Everything new is old, everything old is new - as they say: You're right that news is bombarding both on TV and online - which means they need tons of news stories, every second of every day. Now, good journalists don't grow on trees. So they have junior people, freelancers, even artificial intelligence (and trust me, the intelligence is surely artificial) writing these "news articles". And so after reading some for a while, you realize it's just trash, so it becomes really easy to ignore because it's not really journalism, it's just tabloid-ism. You can tell the decent stuff because it's usually published by a reputable source and is relatively long-form. And within the first few paragraphs you can usually figure out if the writer is a twit or not.

1- Brk has never to my knowledge acted on political imperatives - and I think that is unlikely to change. 2- On the taxes, remember that one aspect of owning the utilities & BNSF is the ability to capture depreciation tax benefits. These are essentially bond like income with an added benefit of requiring large capital investments to upkeep - which allows WB to offset equity capital gain taxes and expand incomes at the same time.

https://www.ft.com/content/ccb46309-bba4-4fb7-b3fa-ecb17ea0e9cf Jim Chanos: ‘We are in the golden age of fraud’

You have my vote. Now, I am not on the Nobel committee, so my vote doesn't count. Alas! you say, hopes have been dashed. But not so soon! You see, all those on the committee do, in fact, vote. And as we have already established that I too vote, it can be shown that I am therefore on the committee. So, congratulations.

Given the price action today I would guess he is continuing to purchase.

Investment Ideas threads having a direct link to rocketfinance 10 year financials... I'd click on that all day. Save me the trouble of having to type, make some money for Sanjeev & the RF folks...win/win/win?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31604-4/fulltext

As the quoted section states, this is really a process vs. outcome question. Or put into COBF terms, investment (repeatable process) vs. speculation (outcome guessing). So, build a good process. Determine the inputs and estimate their value contribution. No practitioner is perfect, so leave room for mistakes. No process is comprehensive, so leave room for luck.

This has happened to me previously. Needed to call the broker and have them adjust my buying power as their programs are stupid and don't realize that spreads and other covered positions have limited exposure.

Lack of compelling investment alternatives, I would say is the largest factor.

WFC and V. Getting to a self-imposed limit on WFC (currently 3.75%; would go up to 4%), so maybe one more opportunity to average down and then we let it ride.

Two jokes from the pearly gates:

:-X What do you think would've happened without pardon power/AG saying can't be indicted by Mueller/not testifying/not allowing most witnesses/not providing financial information/not following subpoenas/no senate that doesn't do its job in trial/clearly telling his cronies they'll get pardoned if they don't cooperate with law enforcement? I accidentally posted in the wrong thread! My mistake!

:-X