LC

What bothers me about the rates argument is, when does the equity yield become so low that it does not justify the risk you are taking? Ok in a world of sub 2% bond yields, sure I can understand why a 3.5% equity yield exists. But as an individual, why invest in that? Just to sell at a 2.5 or 3% yield? That strikes me as a bit of the “greater fool” angle. Prices just seem dangerously high to me.

Interesting...thanks both spek and mattee

Does anyone know sources of market inflows the past year? I have a hard time believing it’s all Robinhood traders, and in the context of what happened end of summer with tech co options, perhaps Chinese money is a big component? Just a theory...

I saw a headline out of england hinting exactly that... Also I agree w/ Greg on the valuation difference between "blue chips" and the market darlings. It's huge.

I’ve had difficulty buying in the recent 2 months. Everything just looks really expensive. I have cash + highly appreciated positions. I may sell and harvest some gains to redeploy into better priced companies but those are getting tough to find.

We started watching it this weekend and ended up watching all of it. Excellent. If you're a chess fan I recommend agadmator's youtube channel.

Incredible, from Picasso's posts I would not have imagined such a conclusion. Goes to show you how little an online persona can show. That said, I agree with Greg. Either you know what you're doing and you manage your own money (or at the very least know enough to weed out ratfucks - pardon the term), or you index. Seriously, just buy the index.

A white scientist is studying an African tribe. One day, the tribe leaders wife has a white son. The tribe leader approaches the scientist soon after. "Well, we both know what happened here. No one else could have done it. You slept with my wife, I have to kill you." The tribe leader says. The scientist's brow furrows as he is deep in thought. "No no no sir there's been a terrible misunderstanding!" The scientist exclaims. "Look out at the pasture." He points his index finger to the fields, where a flock of sheep are grazing. "Yes, what is the matter? It's just sheep." The tribe leader asks. "Do you see that sheep? It's black, while the rest of the sheep are white. The same can be said about your son, It simply happens sometimes in nature." The tribe leader grasps the scientists shoulders and stares him down intensely. "I won't say anything about my son if you don't say anything about that sheep"

Tracking stock, ala Malone? Doesn't really fit the profile & I'm largely ignorant of such issues. Yeah, there are definately lots of ways to surface value here, but he's not really playing that game, and I prefer it that way. Either way I think massive buybacks, even at fair value, is the way forward. The old man can't really defend hording more cash, and it's difficult if not impossible for him to find better risk/reward elsewhere. I agree. Particularly on the "old man" comment. I am curious to hear what additional responsibilities have been migrated to the senior mgmt team (Greg et al) over the year (this year in particular, given all the COVID uncertainty).

Two counterpoints: 1- capital allocation is a benefit across the LOBs. There is a benefit for railroads having access to insurance capital, for example 2- he will have to 'unwind' relationships which at his late stage in life (or if ever) he may be unwilling to do. what does his promise of a 'permanent' home really mean, then?

I lean towards Infoisone's observation that in many cases, AI & ML methods are essentially statistical methodologies re-branded and applied to a a large dataset (and for sure, it is applied in some novel ways). Look at the prototypical KNN algorithm: it is essentially a combination of OLS and the classification problem. The advancement is the computing power (and thereby application to "large data"), but not the methodology. Most AI/ML is simply a marketing term to MBA-educated senior management.

This was a good enough joke on its own :D

As have these: https://i.redd.it/mlwvk5015l261.jpg Both are sad. There must be a compromise solution.

To all the American members here, happy thxgiving!

Schwab for most of my accounts except the big ones @ IBKR solely for the margin rates.

Bad analogy. A vaccine is not inevitable. Sending bits between computers is. This reminds me of that Buffett quote about if hindsight was worthwhile, librarians would be the best investors.

To me - there is no acceptable commuting time. I have been WFH 100% for the past 5 years and would under no circumstances go back to a commute. I worked hard for 20 years to get to the point where I don't need a salary, I love my discipline and working with my colleagues. But if my employer asked me to commute at all, I would find another workplace or go back into academia. In fact the only way I would commute would be if I was teaching/lecturing in classroom.

Wait, there’s a 9th Avenue?

There’s a Russian saying to the effect of, if you are in an open field and a sniper has sighted you, do not run. You will be tired as well as dead.

Never manage money for people who have less of it than you. To address the original post - the most "legit" way is via RIA but this may be too formalized for your means. You can manage I think up to 15 friends/family accounts "informally".

And income mobility is better achieved through more regulations, more license, more barriers to entry, higher taxes, and more red tape? This is a very odd response to what I said. I was talking about income mobility, and you suddenly seem to believe that everything the government does is therefore about income mobility. (It isn't, you know. When the government prevents people from discarding cyanide into your drinking water, they're not doing so to increase income mobility.) That said, some government policies can help income mobility and some government policies can hurt it. Generally, America's pretty terrible at income mobility compared to almost all other western countries. I think it's a major contributor to the completely messed up political situation America is in right now. (If you like, read that to mean, "the rise of AOC" rather than "the rise of Trump". It's the opposite sides of the same "no income mobility" coin.) The correct response is “I have nothing to add”, because your initial post hit the nail on the head.

Well earned! I've had the pleasure of enjoying your posts here for years now, do you find writing a blog (and having readers) creates a feeling of obligation to publish? Wondering how you deal with that.

Most interesting aspect here is how he built it into a 200k subscription service. Any kickbacks to good ole' Liberty for some free COBF advertisement? Kidding :D

Change your mind on RTX?

You’ve slightly muddied the water because a team like the Mets generate earnings every year. A painting you is different as you only generate earnings upon sale. But still, all these generate cash flows albeit at different times (and therefore the discounting is different). How much would you pay for a gold bar which could Never Be Sold Again - ie guaranteed zero future cash flow.