LC

Not sure yet. The namesakes (BRK & FFH) both look cheap. But I have hedges and some aggressive names already so I may hold cash or play some merger arb (ATCO, looking at you) until the next rate hike or two and see if Powell conquers his inflation nemesis. Also looking at property on vacation areas - stuff that I want to use myself and that is easy to Airbnb or rent weekly/monthly for when I am not there.

About two years ago I found out I have an old fixed annuity that's been earning 3% since the early 90s. Parents stuck 55k in a 3% fixed annuity back in 93. Worth about 100k now. If they bought SPY it would be 3.5M, Berkshire even more. Well I've been meaning to figure out the best way to move those funds into a market product, today is the day I'll be redeeming it. I'd rather pay the taxes & early surrender charges than keep earning a measly 3% for another 20 years, and it's a real PITA to transfer to a market product within an annuity contract.

What the Fed is doing will need more time to work. Prices do not equal affordability. Rates are down but actual affordability isn’t: I have a condo that I bought a year or so ago- 2.75% rate. An identical condo across the building from me (and it’s a 6 unit luxury condo building so very comparable) sold this month at almost the exact same price (new owner paid 1% more), but with rates at 5.8%, the new owner is paying quite a bit more per month than I am.

Just pull your funds. What is the point of the headache when alternatives easily exist?

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/smith-maneuver.asp#:~:text=Key Takeaways-,The Smith Maneuver is a legal tax strategy that effectively,tax-deductible investment loan interest.

I'm with you there Greg but I haven't seen much pricing power being exercised from the cable/telcos. If anything there's still downward pressure, which I think is why VZ etc are all nuked.

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Fairfax on the TSE

I think it's a likelihood that areas that you describe simply die out. Home prices remain elevated, families mature, the kids leave because they can't afford to stay, and nobody else can afford to move in. So you get a dying neighborhood of middle aged folks.

Billions has a special place in my heart because the first season or two features the empire racetrack in Yonkers (used to be called Yonkers raceway iirc). I grew up right around there and love that Woodlawn/south Yonkers area - tons of irish and Italian first gen immigrants having nothing but a good time. In fact all the young irish kids working the few pubs left in NYC all come over from Ireland and live in Woodlawn.

I joke with my girlfriend that we are going on costco dates where we buy $1.50 hot dogs/pizzas, get some ice cream, $5 rotisserie chickens, 1.5L of french vodka for <$20, etc. etc. She laughs but secretly I can't wait to do it.

Grantham is tough to like...I mean, the gall to post an article a week after a bear rally deflates and says, Only a few market events in an investor’s career really matter, and among the most important of all are superbubbles. 1 These superbubbles are events unlike any others: while there are only a few in history for investors to study, they have clear features in common. One of those features is the bear market rally after the initial derating stage of the decline but before the economy has clearly begun to deteriorate, as it always has when superbubbles burst." I too can write about last week's news and call it prescient...

Yeah, I agree. It's a little ridiculous. "We won't stop raising rates until some of you bastards are unemployed!" "Just stop eating and you won't get heartburn!"

Same. How far out with the calls are you going? I usually stick with about 6 mo and slightly OOM.

Could you share that? Would be interesting to hear Malone talk about AT&T...

Colorado is down too. Everything is dropping prices. Frankly, everyone who could afford to move or buy a first/second home already has.

I still work and I really enjoy my profession. I've been working with the same rotating cast of math nerds and general lunatics for over a decade, so it's always entertaining. A colleague is a 70+ year old greek woman who builds models by day and goes to Astoria and dances in these greek festivals and dance nights. And she's a genius. Another guy is an ex-cosmonaut/russian propulsion scientist...he says to me, "If you're ever in a field with an enemy sniper, don't run. You'll just be dead AND tired". So just a wacky crew, the work is rewarding and not stressful, the pay/benefits are good...I'll keep doing it for another 10 years I think.

My approach to Fairfax and Berkshire are slight different. Berkshire I generally only accumulate when it gets cheap, but I rarely sell. I should've sold at 360 but I'm OK not selling and holding that for a while, probably because I'm an idiot. Fairfax on the other hand I will trade in and out of.

Yeah I bought some oom 2 mo puts. wouldn’t have thought to but with Vix at 20 it’s relatively cheap for something asymmetric.

I think part of the problem is psychology - these guys get real rich, real famous...and what occupies their mind is losing it. Which is totally understandable. But I'd imagine the real smart move would be to just admit that and own a bunch of ultra conservative, pensioner/retiree type stocks.

My buddy tried to start a grow op up in New England and it was a total cluster. Dealing with the town, the people, vendors and permitting…his group sold out to operators and did decently on the deal, but the weed industry is hard enough as it is (this ain’t 2015), why make it harder?

Well dropping oil prices may bring down the dreaded “inflation” and which would give our federal banksters pause to continue raising rates…which would see equity/housing+consumer markets rise…could be a built in hedge but frankly the world never works so directly. So just something to keep in mind.

Create the problem, sell the solution.

Stuff everybody already knew: https://kdvr.com/news/data/wealthy-people-flood-colorado-2020/