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longlake95

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Everything posted by longlake95

  1. I wouldn’t take the recent margin trend as any indication of Fever Tree’s future prospects. They have been hurt lately (last 24 months) with soaring shipping costs, high glass prices etc. those costs are likely to abate as inflation settles down and the new bottling plants are up and running. FEVR is a leader in the premium mixer category. Premiumisation, is a secular shift that is not stopping. People, particularly under 40 now drink/eat premium coffee, beer, spirits and food. Show me a Gen z that drinks Beefeater and cheap-ass grocery store tonic and I’ll show you a unicorn. They seem to have a long runway of growth outside the UK.
  2. I think the longevity/BRK connection is under-appreciated. It’s one of the many non-financial lessons I’ve learned from WEB/CTM. Living “simply”, minimizing harmful health habits, meaningful relationships with family/friends, minimizing stress and being happy. Stress is way worse for you than a few cokes once and a while. Of course, having a little $$$ helps with the stress factor. there seems to be alot of old value investors.
  3. Here's the buyback. 10% of the float and a bunch of the prefs. Also, an automatic share purchase plan so they can buy back even during blackout periods. https://www.fairfax.ca/news/press-releases/press-release-details/2022/Fairfax-Financial-Holdings-Intention-to-Make-a-Normal-Course-Issuer-Bid-for-Subordinate-Voting-Shares-and-Preferred-Shares/default.aspx
  4. Sold my last remaining position in SBUX last week at $92 1/4. The story here has changed quite a bit, enough for me to move on.
  5. 2 year treasury 12 months ago: 0.207 2 year treasury today: 4.259 remarkable
  6. seems like a tightly wound spring, with yields backing up. Solid CR's. Dry powder. 0.8X book... and Prem making better investments. Looks like a 1 ft hurdle. I still think the market penalizes Prem for his past mistakes.... my thesis is that putting 35B to work at 4% might change people's minds...
  7. Thanks. Okay maybe I will post a little more. Not sure I can add too much to the big brains around here.
  8. What’s the old saying….” If it flies, floats or f&%@s - rent it”
  9. I recently met with a friend who has worked in insurance her whole career, she is 53-ish…she is a senior underwriter in commercial lines, here in Canada. I asked her what inning of the ball game are we in the “hard market”, without missing a beat she replied “ the 7th inning”. yes, it’s anecdotal, but it’s real-time, from a source I trust.
  10. Added a little HPS.a on Friday. Still cheap.
  11. I believe that Apple Pay uses Visa tokens for transactions.
  12. I just learned over the weekend what a Fury was. My son has a couple that go to his school. The demographics looking forward look dismal.
  13. Gildan - low cost producers of socks and underwear. They gush cash doing it.
  14. I see the "Prophet" has moved on from SAAS -----> to TAAS (whatever that is? lol) --------> now to crashing real estate....next.... GOLD $5000/oz
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