longlake95

seems to be behind a paywall...

Under rated investor. I keep that book in my library and read it every couple of years.

I have noticed a pattern over many years - people react slowly to good news and quickly to bad news. Combine that with the heard mentality and you get the Morningstar’s of the world.

HTL

I used to focus too much on the “numbers”, while they are very important, and the price you pay is VERY important, I learned from WEB & Co, it’s EVEN MORE important to get the business right. That is Waaaay more crucial than your discount rate. SPEK, yes, looking backwards to see what growth rate is required to justify the current price, might be a better way to look at a DCF If you aren’t susceptible to creeping growth rates. Which I think most market participants waaay over estimate growth over the long pull.

Agreed, for me a DCF is just one arrow in the quiver. The world is far less linear than a DCF would suggest…lol… I do think it’s a great exercise for newer investors to do, to help wrap their head around absolute value of a business - to disconnect from the typical “ Lowe’s is 15x and the Depot is 20x, so Lowes must be cheap” mentality. try a DCF on HTL - it doesn’t work…lol…

It’s more about being right on the cash flow, less so on picking the perfect discount rate. Try using 10%, it’s your opportunity cost %. You have BRK available ( or the S&P 500, you can argue…) to buy which will give you 10% - it’s your hurdle. Whether you use 8.1, 8.9, 10.1, it doesn’t really matter, the value will scream at you. That’s my un-academic view. Others will chime in on risk premium, WACC, long bond rates….it’s all over kill.

TIKR.COM

CVE

Yes Xer, you’re right they are buying “options” on airframes in many cases. I do know (from industry contacts) between growth and a bulge of airframes reaching end of useful life globally, there’s a good chance they take delivery of these airframes or sell to someone else who takes delivery. Not withstanding COVID, airlines have sweat the hell out of these airplanes, there is now a trend to moving to “larger” narrow body airframes. So net net it looks favourable.

FIH is a beach ball under water that’s slowly being filled with air, eventually it will “pop” up. When that happens who knows? The BIAL is a direct beneficiary of India’s growth. Indigo airlines of India ordered 500 airplanes. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/airbus-wins-historic-500-plane-indigo-order-2023-06-19/

Sell slower than you buy.

50

Maybe, another player emerges…

TRZ - event arb

Same….most of my ideas revolve around what a business won’t do as opposed to what it will do. Many ideas have the same narrative: this biz doesn’t have to do much other than get back to “normal” (whatever that is) and we do ok. Any “growth” on top of that basic idea is gravy. Combined with a heavy does of common sense and basic probability.

yes, without dissecting this 10 ways to Sunday , WEB would have likely preferred not to have the B's, but was forced to jump onboard having 2 share classes - when some people were trying to flog a security/fund/LP etc, made up of just BRK sliced into smaller pieces. Then he split the B's to accommodate the small BNSF shareholders. I'd maintain $1000 is a small "price" to pay for entry into a diversified well run....we expect going forward, business. That's just one iPhone that lots of people carry around. but i'm probably wrong.

Viking - you're right that investors don't have the same relationship with Prem/FFH, due to some of the blighted history. This will take time to heal/prove. I'm just not sure that a split, why improving liquidity, changes much in how the stock tracks intrinsic value over time. It may add more volatility - as the renters busily buy and sell FFH - with every new twitter post. BTW, agreed on the Prem's answer on debt...i'd like to see lower leverage. FFH can/will do fine if they take a page out Omaha.

He's being Buffett like. Trying to attract true-owner mentality types - like this crowd. Can't say I disagree.

Really?

Welcome! Tulip

That royalty that Charlie receives, cost him $1000 back in the day.

+1

Trimmed just a little HPS.a