longlake95

Trying to add to my ALA pref position

trying to buy more Canadian prefs, but can't get filled. hardly any liquidity...

LNR

bloom finally coming off the rose. https://www.thestar.com/business/mortgage-defaults-and-forced-home-sales-are-now-starting-to-climb-in-toronto/article_47169ce1-5cac-5355-bdad-a41b4f61b970.html

Ha. I guess not. Someday it gets some attention and more liquidity. It’s fertile ground.

Nope. Just a thin trader

Jaygo, this dog house portfolio probably does okay to well. It usually pays to be a bad news buyer on okay to goodish companies. It will interesting to watch. I bet it beats the s&p over the next few years.

Duran Duran. Saw them in concert last night in Toronto. Pretty amazing. And Niles Rodgers and Bastion were a nice surprise.

DG

yes the perpetuals will move more on rate changes. So you're playing the interest rate guessing game. I'm parking cash in the floaters - which won't react (the price) as much to rate changes. All I know is this whole asset class has done poorly for the past while - and there's value there. Again, this isn't a big idea, just a placeholder till the fat pitch comes along. There might even some issuer's surprise us by redeeming various series.

Thanks for the link. That was good for a laugh!

FFH.pr.D ALA.pr.H SLF.pr.J These are all floating rate resets. There are others series you can buy, with "better" features. example..SLF.pr.J is a non-cumulative....so it trades at even more of a discount because people deem the non-cumulative as a negative. The Canadian pref complex, is pretty washed out. Many retail investors have been killed over the past 5 years here....they threw in the towel. ZPR has been a disaster. This is a pretty inefficient market dominated by retail investors. It's a parking place for cash.... even if rates go down " a bit" I think we do okay here as a parking place for cash.

me too. and some Canadian prefs.

i worry more about tail risk at subs than tail risks in their marketable securities - like Apple. I don't think you can own something like BHE and not have the occasional - pardon the pun - flare up. Likewise, you can't own a re-insurer and not have some really bad hurricane years. While not fun to endure, I think BRK takes on water over the gunnels, but the ship doesn't sink. The earnings power is just so large. If there's anyone who would increase capex to fix the issues - it's BRK. We'll see what they do at Pacific Corp. Certainly no expert here - but there are now utilities installing fire prevention wrapped utility poles and using a gizmo on the pole that de-energizes the line if something touch it - to prevent fires. Burying lines is just too expensive.

FFH

Yes, got it. Thanks.

Thanks beach, I tried that, didn’t seem to work. I’ll keep trying. Thanks

seems to be behind a paywall...

Under rated investor. I keep that book in my library and read it every couple of years.

I have noticed a pattern over many years - people react slowly to good news and quickly to bad news. Combine that with the heard mentality and you get the Morningstar’s of the world.

HTL

I used to focus too much on the “numbers”, while they are very important, and the price you pay is VERY important, I learned from WEB & Co, it’s EVEN MORE important to get the business right. That is Waaaay more crucial than your discount rate. SPEK, yes, looking backwards to see what growth rate is required to justify the current price, might be a better way to look at a DCF If you aren’t susceptible to creeping growth rates. Which I think most market participants waaay over estimate growth over the long pull.

Agreed, for me a DCF is just one arrow in the quiver. The world is far less linear than a DCF would suggest…lol… I do think it’s a great exercise for newer investors to do, to help wrap their head around absolute value of a business - to disconnect from the typical “ Lowe’s is 15x and the Depot is 20x, so Lowes must be cheap” mentality. try a DCF on HTL - it doesn’t work…lol…

It’s more about being right on the cash flow, less so on picking the perfect discount rate. Try using 10%, it’s your opportunity cost %. You have BRK available ( or the S&P 500, you can argue…) to buy which will give you 10% - it’s your hurdle. Whether you use 8.1, 8.9, 10.1, it doesn’t really matter, the value will scream at you. That’s my un-academic view. Others will chime in on risk premium, WACC, long bond rates….it’s all over kill.

TIKR.COM