Blake Hampton

+1

Only three more years of seemingly endless, ego-fueled risk taking. It seems to me that at some point Trump is going to overstep. Maybe Venezuela was a success, maybe Iran ultimately will be too, but we're certainly pushing our luck given our current economic position.

I'm thinking of writing a longer post about Kevin Warsh and the interesting things I see ahead concerning the Federal Reserve, credit markets, and the dollar. I'm hoping for a strong rebuttal from you @gfp. The simple idea in my mind is that Warsh is fundamentally different than Powell. And I'll also add that I think they're both brilliant, just in different ways. It's interesting how great minds can disagree on important, complex topics. I've honestly been surprised that the topic of Warsh becoming Fed Chair hasn't really been touched on here at COBF. It's part of the reason I wanted to come back a little; I wanted to write some about it. I'm think I'm going to try and be a bit nicer as well. There's zero reason for me to be an asshole when I'm talking to people on here.

But how big relative to total assets, if you don't mind me asking?

I agree. I also think 'panic higher' is pretty definitive.

I always thought the best way to navigate suffering was to appreciate how it strengthens you. Looking back, I believe that some of my hardest events have shaped some of my best qualities. Though it seems some get stuck in it, which is sad.

Just think about it some more.

"Terror over economic collapse drives individuals to currency-based assets, most particularly U.S. obligations, and fear of currency collapse fosters movement to sterile assets such as gold." - Buffett, 2012 Historically, currency collapse has almost always been preceded by economic collapse. I believe this is what the United States is heading for. It's basically my whole thesis.

I believe that a lot of the raging bull markets you're talking about are simply speculation. Buffett indicator is at 223%. Dot-com peak was 190%. Prices going up means zero. No one knows when the music is gonna stop. I know for a fact that oil will do well over the long-term, but I also think that there will be an enormous deflationary crash sometime in the near future. In that environment, everything will drop.

I imagine most on this board already know about this. Nonetheless, I'm excited to hear from Buffett:

One of the largest risks for the future that I see is political. Nowhere better in my mind to offset that risk than owning producers in Texas. I imagine that if the Feds ever really tried to go after Texas oil, it would be all-out war.

Even with record domestic production, the United States is still a net importer of crude to the tune of 2.2 million barrels a day: Occidental and Chevron alone account for roughly two-thirds of Buffett's net purchases since 2020. The Permian is depleting and has extremely high decline rates; when production finally begins to fall, it will happen rapidly. Global demand for oil will only continue to grow, and the world is discovering one new barrel of reserves for every six we're producing.

Old news: WSJ: Fed to Resume Net Asset Purchases With $40 Billion in Securities This Month So the Fed is doing "QE" again to "minimize repo-market strains," Trump is causing geopolitical chaos, and the size of outstanding Treasury basis trades are at an all time high: Seems healthy to me.

Thank God Trump is trying to save us from that damn Powell. Dude needs to lower rates; I can't afford my CC bill.

"BP is a shell of its former self." - Random WSJ comment

You can't capture in words how goddamn stupid this all is.

It doesn't even shock me anymore.

Our president is a convicted felon.

^ Notice the national debt clock lapel pin he’s wearing on his suit.

Behold one of the few republican congressmen who isn’t a bootlicking coward:

Arguing with righties anymore is like trying to convince someone that the sky isn't red. When you tell them to simply look up, they get mad at you and then say it's a hologram.

Oh and Facebook of course

X, Fox News, Trump himself, that one hot blonde chick married to the 70 year old

That book is indeed incredible. All corporate executives should be sent off somewhere where they're forced to read it. The concepts in that book aren't that complicated, but seemingly very few managers follow them. One of the primary things I've learned over the years is that most managers aren't worth a damn, yet most of them compensate themselves like there's no one better. It's something that makes me quite angry actually; I sort of equate it with theft but on a large scale.