Blake Hampton

- A $2.1 trillion fiscal deficit, a $39 trillion national debt - A $1.1 trillion current account deficit, a -$28 trillion international investment position - A system that's leveraged to the absolute fucking hilt, a lot of which was driven by low rates - The biggest stock market and real estate market bubbles in history And Trump is starting wars in the Middle East... Brilliant.

I drove an hour and half to vote for Kamala in a state where a Democrat hasn't won the electoral vote since 1964. Why? Because I knew Trump was going to be an absolute disaster.

Here's some interesting figures: - U.S. fiscal deficit: 6.5% of GDP, nearly $16,000 per household - U.S. current-account deficit: 3.5% of GDP, nearly $8,000 per household - U.S personal savings rate: 3.6% of PDI, about $2,300 of the median household income Only in the United States are we dumb enough to vote for a man who'd threaten to invade an NATO ally. Only in the United States are we dumb enough to vote for a man that would do his best at making the entire world hate us, that same world that in a large way subsidizes our living. This is wisdom at its worst, and I imagine it'll end quite badly. Though I also believe that we will have deserved it.

It's interesting how all of this works. Trump starts something that has the capability of creating chaos, it then scares a good amount of people, he ends up walking it back and declaring victory once we're close to the edge, and then he waits a while and eventually does it again. I read the WSJ, NYT, FT, and my local paper every single morning (it's all fake news, I know). I'm only 24 so I've only been doing this for a couple of years, but sometimes I like to reminisce on the dark days of our evil Biden overlord, and it's difficult for me to remember much. Of course the man was a business moron, so there was a lot of stuff that I found sort of dumb. But never anything that was truly shocking to me. Then comes Trump. One after another, unprecedented event after event, it never seems to end with this guy. It never seems to be enough. Every month seemingly there is some new, crazy thing that he's fixated on doing, all of which have the potential for causing serious problems in the future.

My TDS is near all consuming.

Tariffs as Trump implements them are illegal. In this case, the FY 2025 deficit was actually close to $2 trillion, which is about $15 thousand for each and every single U.S. household. That number is also growing quite quickly. Just the war in Iran is costing $1 billion a day. What about our interest expense, worsening demographics, and all the other stupid stuff that would take me all day to list? I guess money really does grow on trees.

It's gonna be interesting watching Trump try to dig his way out of this hole he's gotten himself into. I don't think he has the power to move the Straight of Hormuz someplace more safe, though some people on this board might disagree. Is Iran just strong enough to keep causing chaos in energy markets? Trump will have you believe that he's actually Iron Man, and that he alone will guide those tankers through to safety. I'm not so sure.

Do we own Greenland yet?

The war in Iran is costing the United States government about $1 billion a day. WTI is now running close to $89 a barrel. I'm just waiting for him to start draining the SPR lol.

6 for me and I'm 24: - Film camera - CD - VHS - Blockbuster - Dictionary - Paper check

China cares about China.

But the NYT is fake news after all.

Donald Trump is probably the single-most optics driven person I have ever seen. This man doesn't give a single lick about the long-term future of probably anything. Somehow, on a forum dedicated to the ideas of both Buffett and Watsa, two men driven almost entirely by the long-term view of things, there are still those here who've been caught hook, line, and sinker by this grifting moron we call a president. Did anyone actually read the article @dealraker sent earlier to this thread? Here it is again: NYT: How Donald Trump Bankrupted His Atlantic City Casinos, but Still Earned Millions How is this a person that anyone could hope to have as their leader? He's a fucking lying crook.

Also, I think the Social Security trust funds are simply another future financial disaster lying in wait. Once these funds are insolvent, the program will face a 24% cut to benefits by law. If Congress wants to avoid this, which I'm certain they will, that'll require massive amounts of additional debt issuance needed to finance that new funding gap. How long does money grow on trees?

So here's an interesting question, it's one of simple principle: Yes or no, do you believe that the U.S. government will face a crisis if we forever refuse to get control of the federal budget? Sub-question on that: If yes, is your argument then that we are nowhere near the point of crisis today?

You're correct. Just as he will do whatever he can to keep inflation at bay, interest rates low, the stock market booming, housing prices high, etc. But what about the long term? I post frequently about how global reserves are being replaced at only a small fraction of current global production. I also strongly believe demand will only continue to grow. What then will this situation look like in 10 years? What about in 20 years? I of course have the same concern with items like our national debt.

Are we still taking Greenland or no?

I believe the Federal Reserve is an extremely important aspect of our nation's financial future. But you're right. There is more to life besides understanding the Federal Reserve lol. I'm doing pretty good for myself, though I'm sure I could always be doing better. I'm getting married here in a couple months actually. Been with my now fiance for about five years.

I overall believe, deep in my bones, that Trump is bad for the long-term future of this nation. There are so many smart people who support this guy, some of whom I deeply love and respect, and it sort of baffles me. The liberal 'gotchas' don't really do it for me anymore. I'm starting to realize that he is the embodiment of something bigger than that. I've also found that most people don't care about politics nearly as much as I do. Nowadays, it seems to scare people to the point where they don't want to think about it anymore. And it's funny: I believe that the same time people so deeply want to look away is about the same time when they should be staring at it. It's kind of like with the stock market.

I think @wabuffo is brilliant. I've learned a lot from reading his previous posts. Please give me a list of the ideas that you believe I need to change my mind on here. I would appreciate it if @wabuffo might do the same.

It wasn't the Treasury that saved the bond market in March 2020; it was the Fed buying Treasuries in order to ensure people could actually trade their bonds for cash. How does a country like the United States, a country whose debt is denominated in its own currency, go broke? It prints the money needed to repay its liabilities when it can no longer do so through traditional methods, or in our case, printing endless amounts of new debt. Given that our government debt markets form the foundation of the global financial system, that our central bank is technically "independent," and that Trump just nominated a man whose most-important goal is to protect the value of our currency, this situation can get very complex, very fast. In a crisis, the Treasury is primarily there for stimulus, once Congress pulls their head out of their own ass that is. The Federal Reserve is there to make sure that the plumbing doesn't completely seize up. Given that most people don't know what an emergency fund is anymore, and I'm talking about both people and businesses here, this is an interesting role to have.

It's funny because I think the absolute opposite. I think you and @wabuffo underestimate the importance of the Federal Reserve. Like I said previously, I agree that they are unimportant 99.99% of the time, but during that 0.01% of the time that they are, they become all-important. They are the only source of liquidity during a panic. People generally have this view that the Fed will always be there for them when the economy seizes up. I disagree. While I don't think Warsh would let our economy collapse under the weight of bank failures, I don't know if he would support stabilizing corporate credit the way Powell did. The Pandemic would've been far more devastating if Powell and the Fed hadn't acted towards the end of March. Buffett has said this himself many times. And maybe it would've been better for us to get hurt. Maybe a lot of this speculative bullshit we're currently seeing wouldn't have happened to the degree that it has. I don't know. I also think Warsh is more inclined for letting our country feel the heat concerning this stuff. That's part of how he views inducing change. I think Powell's fixation is with keeping the economy running as smooth as possible all the time, while Warsh's is ultimately protecting the future value of the currency. I like Warsh a lot and I think he's brilliant. I also think he's a little bit dangerous.

And if the United States refuses to get its fiscal account in order, a crisis will eventually become inevitable: https://www.crfb.org/papers/what-would-fiscal-crisis-look At that point, the Fed Chairman will quickly become the most important man in the world.

I agree that the majority of what the Fed does is mostly structural during times of stability. It actually seemed to be a relatively boring institution that few people thought about prior to 2008. However, it is during a crisis that a Chairman's ideology can truly define an outcome. I think it's an interesting idea to ponder what might have happened differently if Warsh had been in charge during the Pandemic instead of Powell. I think it could have been very different. It seems to me Warsh is a lot less forgiving. The Federal Reserve was initially created in response to the Panic of 1907, which nearly took down our economy. One of the Fed's primary purposes is stabilizing the banking system during crisis. But they are not mandated to backstop corporate credit, which is exactly what J. Powell did in 2020.