Marco Van Basten

Actually, not true, Israel did send troops to Korea. If I recall correctly, US specifically asked Israel not to get involved in both Gulf wars.

Iran is NOT fighting for survival. Iranian regime is fighting for the right to have nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles in order to wipe out non-Shiites at any moment that they choose. Khamenei the elder stated that it is worth letting two hundred million Muslims die in order to wipe out Israel. Meanwhile, chants death to America and attacks on Americans came in way before attacks on Israel. As for who is begging, well both Israel and the US each have the ability to wipe Iran off the face of the earth, while Iran only dreams of being able to do so.

Look, I know that people such as @Xerxes, know the situation orders of magnitude better than I do. However, it seems to me that closing the straits of Hormuz is the trump card that the Iranian government has. The straits can probably be opened in a few weeks, although I don't really know. However, if Israel or the US destroy the oil and gas infrastructure in Iran, which seems to me quite easy to do, then it is game over for the Iranian regime. So hard to see how an ultimatum open the straits or you don't have an oil and gas industry does not work.

It is not. The central premise of Judaism is that Jews should live in Israel. I don't recall your vitriol against "pariah Ukrainians" when people were calling for helping Ukraine against the Russian invasion. You don't call out "pariah Islamists" from Qatar who have been influencing US universities for decades. The fact that the only people who you call pariahs are the Jews is the proof of who you are. Just be honest and don't try to pull wool over people's eyes. I agree with you regarding foreign aid and policy debate. However, again, US has been doing these endless engagements in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Libya, Yugoslavia, the gulf wars etc. Did you call out the "pariah Muslims" for agitating that the US get involved in helping Muslims in the Yugoslavia civil war? Did you call out the "pariah Croats" for agitating that the US help them against the Serbs? Did you call the "pariah Albanians" for agitating that the US help them against the Serbs in Kosovo in the civil war that Albanians triggered? No, it seems that the only pariahs in your book are the Jews. So be honest in your hatred. You don't like subsidizing foreigners? Neither do I, but I never recalled you complaining about $75bn US foreign aid budget, and billions of dollars that annually go to Egypt and other Arabs. I am against all foreign aid, regardless of where it goes, but your issue again is only with Israel, even though that aid is going away in a few years as it should.

Pariah Zionists? You clearly mean pariah Jews! After all, the Hebrew Bible clearly tells the Jews that they should live in the land of Israel, Jews have lived in the land that is now Israel for three thousand years. Arabs are the colonizers that wiped out the Samaritans, Nabateans, as well as largely driven out Armenians and Greeks in Lebanon, Copts & Armenians & Greeks in Egypt, Chaldeans, Yazidis, and Assyrians in Syria & Iraq. Do you call Turks pariahs, given that they came over from Central Asia and drove out the Greeks and Armenians and massacred both in the 19th and 20th centuries? What about Azeris who have just kicked out Armenians from the land the Armenians have lived on for three thousand years? The list goes on. By the way, do you call Germans pariahs for believing that Germans should live in Germany given that they came over from the east, or the French, or English or Hungarians? Is the honor of pariahs is just reserved for the Jews?

Keep in mind that there are limits to how much Iran can strangle the oil and gas production. After all, that's their trump card, and at some point, Israel may be allowed to destroy Iran's oil and gas industry if the straits are closed. If that happens, theocracy is finished in Iran.

I will give you several but they are all non-insurance: Safran (I own), Airbus (I own), Saint James (STJ LN - I own), Sartorius Stedim Biotech (I don't own), Aena (I own), Richemont (I don't own), Heidelberg Materials (I own). Amrize is a Swiss company but 100% US business, I own it. If you want to count Israel as a European country, then Tel-Aviv stock exchange (I own), but I would wait for a pull-back, I would NOT buy it here. If I had a mountain of cash fall into my lap tomorrow, I would buy all of the above EXCEPT for Tel-Aviv stock exchange. Also, I don't know the business well, but Ferrovial seems to fit the bill as well.

I think that if you were to mark to market their investments, the returns would be much higher...

Why? If all you are saving is 20 basis points, is it worth it?

James Bond...

That could be suicidal for the Teheran regime, because in retaliation Kharg island gets hit, and Iranian GDP goes down 50%.

Parsad, with all due respect, this wage is more than adequate to live well in NYC. Yes, you cannot live in Manhattan, but you can live in Brooklyn, Bronx, Staten Island or Queens. You will not be able to afford an apple phone, but you will be able to afford a cheap cell phone. Can one person support a family of four on this? No, but two people working that job and saving from 18-30 can indeed get married, and have one spouse stay home and the other work. Now if people choose to spend freely, hardly save anything and then expect one person working an unskilled job to support a family of four, then that does not work.

Parsad, I don't know what is going in Canada or many parts of the United States. I do know however that in NYC today, you can get an unskilled job that will pay $21.50-$25 per hour with a 401(k), annual bonus, medical insurance, dental insurance, and paid vacation and sick days. With this kind of employment market, how can 20%+ of NYC be on food stamps is beyond me.

Can you use options rather than borrow? I am usually 110-130% net long, but I usually I accomplish that with options - LEAPs ideally. That way, if I am wrong or market moves against me, I avoid the risk of a margin call. Keep in mind, unless you own an insanely diversified portfolio, most likely there is basis risk versus whatever index you choose to hedge against. Hell, even Coca Cola and Pepsi have very different businesses...

Dude, the deficit is shrinking in both absolute terms and as a % of GDP from fiscal 2023 and fiscal 2024 levels, albeit it is still way too high. So the deficit is NOT growing in absolute terms on a per household basis. Yes, Iran war is expensive, however so is Iranian terrorism. I agree with you on a lot of things, but you need to look at both sides of the coin, not just one.

No good suggestions sadly, shorting I am not good at, and my portfolio has too much basis risk. What risks are you worried about? a) put spread on SPY works, if you are hedging due to Iran war, then perhaps put spread on airlines or hotels? Or call spread on Shell plc? b) Somebody has been pitching EQ resources in Australia - the tungsten miner as a great long since the material is used in weapons, and this Co is supposedly one of the few Western producers, so that could be an interesting hedge on the long side. c) Puts on credit or banks could be interesting - puts on Blue Owl or Blackstone, probably not Apollo (too well run), puts on JP Morgan - 3x book value? If you can buy CDS, which I cannot, that might be an interest place to fish? d) if you fear economic downturn due to Iran war or AI or both, then I would guess that puts on banking and private equity ETFs would be interesting. Sorry, cannot give you a good answer. I don't have any hedges on at the moment. You know my portfolio - sand/gravel/cement + Tel Aviv Stock Exchange + GE/Safran/Airbus + JOE, Fairfax, MCO/SPGI, NEN, Visa.

A friend works for a large hedge fund. His group, I think ten people, got rid of two PhD level coders and one data scientist thanks to AI. Now, keep in mind, several years ago, Nadella at MSFT said that he could double the amount of business and not add more headcount, similarly a few years ago, a prominent venture capitalist stated that he could not understand what 50% of the people at Google did all day. So you could have mass white collar lay-offs, or just a declining employment thanks to attrition. Also, if I remember correctly, Biden expanded the federal work force by 300,000 people, and now Trump shrank it by 300,000 people. Meanwhile, I was walking in Manhattan yesterday, a fast food chain advertised: $21.50-$24.50 hourly wage, free breakfast and lunch for employees, plus annual bonus, plus healthcare plan, dental plan and a 401(k) plan. So you could have an economy where nurses, doctors, plumbers/handymen/electricians/carpenters/waiters thrive, and where college professors/administrators/many other white collar jobs shrink.

Sorry, I am slow... On the one hand, she wants to work and thinks that she will be bored at home, and we need the health insurance that her job provides, on the other hand, she went from being an Obama Democrat to Trump Republican, and every time she sees taxes in her paycheck, I hear five minutes of hate (from Orwell's 1984)

The solution that impacts the economy least is the one that does not increase the payroll cap. And if you want to stick it to the boomers, then just don't give Social Security if your annual income is in excess of certain amount.

Not an option for most of the country. Oh, and I don't have a W-2 job.

Why? Can you please elaborate, thank you.

Usually there is.

You guys are clearly not married, I'd pay to have MasterCard and Visa cancel on my wife!

It would be a disaster if you raise the payroll cap, employment will go down and probably quite a bit. You already have marginal tax rates north of 50% in many places - NY, NJ, CA, HI, MA. You push it up higher and you will have an impact on employment. My wife doesn't make much, but because I push her into the top federal bracket, albeit not the top NYS brackets, the tax she pays on her salary is approaching 60% (including Medicare and Social Security.) We are debating whether she should stop working (she has an MBA), because it's just not worth it. Push it say a few percentage higher and it's just a no brainer for her to quit. My neighbor's wife quit her job as a teacher after NYS passed additional tax increases a few years ago, since her husband worked for a hedge fund, and this loyal Democrat could not stomach paying 60%+ tax rate... Keep in mind, many federal tax credits for kids phase out at $400K of income... From an economic point of view, the best is to take away benefits from higher income retirees.

Why do you like Buzzi Unicem? What do you think of capital allocation, assets and treatment of minority shareholders? Why do you like MTU rather than say Rolls Royce or Safran or GE or Melrose? Thank you.