Marco Van Basten

I think Social Security is a real problem, and my guess is that it will be solved as follows: anyone who's income in retirement exceeds certain levels does not get it. Already for most people who worked hard and saved, 85% of Social Security benefits are subject to income tax. So that is the next step - 100% tax on 100% of the benefits if your income exceeds - say $500K per annum. Hence, it will not be a problem post this solution.

Look, I disagree. Bibi did a great job as a finance minister in 1990s, and but he abysmally failed at three crucial things: a) Israel was completely unprepared for October 7th and had Hezbollah attacked as well and terrorism spiked in West Bank, Israel would have lost thousands of more people; b) he has done nothing to stop the Orthodox sector from bleeding Israel dry and if not stopped, this will eventually destroy Israel; c) Israel should have solved the Gaza and West Bank problem a long time ago, and time is working against Israel. In the next war, it is not clear that the West will back Israel.

I listened to call, they seem very bullish.

According to Bloomberg, the company beat analysts' forecast. E 1.41bn adjusted net income reported vs E 1.39bn estimate.

A five year old bull? In commercial agriculture, they are usually culled at 4-5 years due to fertility... He said probably sell at 2x book value or 15x EPS, which is north of $3100 today. That's 80% above today's stock price, so it is not terribly relevant now... Kind of medieval philosophers debating how many angels fit on a head of a pin... By the way, I am heading to your favorite place in a few months, any intelligence you'd like me to gather?

Given that eigenvalue posted the stock when it was at USD 900 two years ago, you might want to re-read what he posted before giving him advice...

Where did you see insider buying? Thank you.

Patrick G Ryan Jr buys 25,865 shares of Ryan Specialty on 02/20/26-02/23/2026 39.94-41.41

Well, think about it. He did not say that the insurance industry can use AI to cut costs by 20%, which by the way is probably way too high. He said that today, if people would just shop around like AI agents will, the premiums would go down by 15-20%. Clearly if the next decade is exactly equivalent to the last decade, and in the world of no inflation, how can the insurance industry adjust to a 20% decline in price given 97+ combined ratio? @Spekulatius, again, he did not say that the insurance companies could cut costs by 20% and hence consumers could see a 20% price cut, he said ceteris paribus, just use an AI agent to shop for insurance and your cost will drop by 20%.

One interesting anecdote - a childhood friend is a radiologist in NYC. He always thought that his job would be replaced by technology, and yet he says that he gets job offers regularly and the market for radiologists is very good in NYC and insanely good outside the city.

If I recall Chubb's 2024 annual report correctly, it gives the underwriting ratio for the company and the industry for the previous decade. According to memory, industry's underwriting ratio was north of 97 over the previous decade. So, now you take $20 of revenue of the top, you have $97 of expenses on $80 of revenue, which is 121.25 underwriting ratio. I don't know how the insurance industry can survive, let alone have a positive return on shareholders' capital under those circumstances. So clearly the writer of the report can't be bothered with facts, so if I know that he is 100% wrong and flat out lies in something that I know, how can I take anything else that he says seriously? He might be right on something, but not because he has bothered to do the research like a card counter at a casino but like someone who bets on zero at roulette and gets lucky.

Hard to disprove a negative, but I have trouble understanding two things: a) How on bloody earth he gets to an estimate that 15-20% of premiums earned by insurance companies are due to people not shopping around and hence will be eliminated by AI agents. So if we just lop off 20% of premiums for US insurance industry, combined ratio gets to 105-115, may be 120, so the entire industry not only writes at a loss, but investment income is not enough to cover it. b) He states that AI agents will eliminate 2.5-3.0% interchange fee. Ok, but how will credit cards make money and what rails will replace V/MA/AXP/Discovery?

If you are in NYC, there is a public library on 34th and Park Avenue that has free bloomberg.

I think that you are too low. Unless I am mistaken, the company on the call stated that it expects consolidated income to exceed $5bn per annum on a going forward basis. Setting aside the company's conservatism, and the fact that the equity portfolio should generate capital gains, this implies around USD 200 per share in 2026, and assuming buy-backs of 1 MM shares per annum, closer to USD 270 per share in 2030, and again that is without capital gains which should occur given the equity portfolio.

Did I hear this correctly that the company is expecting $5bn per annum in consolidated income on a going forward basis? That is $250 per share pre-tax and $200 after-tax.

I am sorry, I did not watch the cartoons. However, I have read the Koran. It clearly calls for subjugation and murder of non-Muslims, it calls for perpetual war against non-Muslims. How is that different from Nazi idealogy?

So, let's talk about their business. What % of revenues and profits come from a unique, proprietary offering that cannot be replicated, and what will be the growth rate there? How much comes from repacking other data and what are the prospects for it?

I would say that equities are probably safer than junk bonds. Particularly if you have a guy like Nicolai Tangen, Sir Chris Hohn, or John Armitage picking them.

Mr Buffett is 10x the investor that I will ever be, however I would be careful with Chubb's investment book. Unless I misread CB's 2024 annual report, they are piling into private credit...

Actually that is not correct. Property taxes go up every year in NYC, what Mamdani wants to do is to hike them by 10% more than they would normally go up by.

How do you get to USD 4bn in free cash flow? Thank you.

I think you'd be surprised at the % of people here who don't work for someone. Also, workload often goes in waves - like a cosine function...

@dealraker, I would NOT own BUD or HSY here, volumes flat to down, little pricing power. I'd bite the bullet, sell, pay the capital gains tax and buy SPGI & MCO. I am wrestling with whether I should sell my CASY that I bought on 01/31/2024.

Yes, as long as it was not in East Prussia or Silesia, eh?

Are you sure? I had thought the adjusted EPS took care of that no? Thank you.