Eldad

I find their moat ratings to be valuable on the whole, but they do seem to hold on to biases for longer than they should. For example Campbell’s soup they still have as wide moat as the margins have been eroding for a decade or more. And they left AAPL as a narrow moat for a ridiculous amount of time. How many years in a row of 30+% ROIC does it take to get the upgrade? And yes the drug stocks all wide moat and 5 star buys for years that never go anywhere.

It’s my ideal based on my limited circle of competence. Basically it’s stuff I already own but with better weightings. Own but want more: MCO, GGG, CSWI, CSU Don’t own and would like to own a lot: Lagercrantz

Kind of just feel. I raised a bunch of cash in December and I would hope to be out of cash by S&P 4,800ish. So basically take cash and traunch it to buy a little more every step down until then. But I’m not going to buy anything but extremely high quality. I also have an ideal portfolio on a spreadsheet. If one that I am way underweight to the ideal gets below target I could possibly spend a giant chunk on that as well.

Agree. But I do better buying tiny all the way down.

Tiny MSFT and GOOGL adds. Gotta buy something when down DOW is down 1k.

MSFT Hoping this down move has legs.

JDG Pace yourselves. Loooooong way to fall from here.

Agree. When it happens don’t watch CNBC, Bloomberg, etc. Even on this site, stay out of General Discussion. Get super myopic about the stocks on your buy list and nothing else. Or just buy a bunch of BRK.

Some great lines: “Mistakes fade away; winners can bloom forever.” ”…but small fractions of these gems can be purchased Monday through Friday on Wall St. and, very occasionally, sell at bargain prices” ”From a base of 4 MM people - and despite a brutal internal war early on, pitting one American against another - America changed the world in the blink of a Celestial eye.” All have been said many times before but the turn of phrase made me smile and the stock bargain one got me pumped.

Here is to hoping it rains bars of gold soon.

Fed Model. 10 year is 4.609% right now. 21.7 PE. Add in an equity premium and let’s call it 20. S&P current PE of 30.26. 50% overvalued. Most of the stuff on there looks like he is writing a summary of the thoughts of this board over the last year.

Yes we are all aware. He would still have an edge in being a contrarian that didn’t care what anyone else thought IMO.

Yeah I hear you. I am a born introverted contrarian and a CPA by trade if that explains anything. Sitting in an office by myself finding obscure net nets that everyone else hates and listening to Yankee games on the radio and maybe taking a nap sounds better than CPA work is all I’m really saying.

Because I wish I could sit in an office with no computer and look through the Value Line and beat the market with Modest Talent and Light Work Habits. He was one of a kind and excelled his way. I like that. It’s like running the numbers in the racing form except you win consistently haha (I enjoy going to the races as well)

“Described by someone who knows him well as "a man of modest talent and light work habits," Schloss practices investing in a way that any ordinary investor can. Dressed in a well-worn trader's smock, he works entirely from public documents and a few publications like Value Line in one cramped, little office squirrelly with annual reports, 10-Ks, pictures of Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Schloss's children and grandchildren. The one window looks out onto an air shaft. The total value of the fixed assets in that office? Three thousand dollars. He has never had a computer or a fax machine, and he still pecks away on an old Olympus manual typewriter to correspond with clients” That is my dream job right there. Kinda like getting paid to analyze the Daily Racing Form. Schloss freaking killed it in the 70s. Maybe net nets and BV investing will make a comeback in the future.

US represents 75% and 80% of Canadian and Mexican exports. This won’t last long. They will have to capitulate.

Yep true north. Free markets and people. These are ridiculously stupid people that could screw up a compass metaphor. It’s actually sad. Is this Idiocracy? ”competitiveness and decarbonization” if they head northwest. Let’s pay more for energy to become more competitive.

Yeah I agree that the low and negative rate experiment did not work to induce inflation in Europe and Japan. I am not sure that we know that the opposite is academic nonsense. I mean Reagan administration etc. Looking at Japanese inflation chart and there are some small pops but mostly negative years and sub 1% years since their 1980s crash. The Japanese are big time savers. I would think longterm manipulation by the BOJ to keep the bond rates below inflation would cause savers to become hoarders of goods which has historically been what causes hyper-inflation. Not to mention carry trade chaos.

Not sure what you mean. Bonds yields way below the rate of inflation would seem to be a problem in a common sense world. Japan hasn’t really had inflation since the early 1990s so this is something new. Carry trade unwind seemed to matter back in August but now it doesn’t for some reason. I am guessing USD to YEN.

Japan Dec inflation was 3%. They just raised rates to 0.5. 10 year is 1.2%. When does that matter again? When the USD weakens?

Right, just shorthand. Also, pretty much everyone other than big tech is a winner when LLM becomes a commodity product. Probably especially big pharma.

Did any consumer staples report today? Or was it as simple as 500 billion in Nvda rolled over into PEP, KO, CLX, CL, JNJ etc. ? They are up like crazy today.

Funny but the majority are certainly not bearish currently. The human race generally has moved onward and upward but it is possible for the market to be down and or flat for a decade or more 1930s, 1970s. 1400s Europe was a dead century economically. Stonks are good and timing is usually bad but it’s also good to have caution and be a contrarian when everyone is on one side of the boat (bearish or bullish).

In the first year, I see your point. Organic is already included in ROIC. But imagine this: 1. 100 of capital 2. 20% ROIC 3. 10% organic with no additional cost of capital 4. All income is dividend out every year Year 1 22 of income. 22% ROIC Year 2 24.2 of income 24.2% ROIC Year 3 26.6 Year 4 29.26 When you put that into a DCF it is pretty powerful for the intrinsic value. Not sure exactly sure how it equates to ROIC + Organic every year but it’s definitely not double counting as it compounds. Maybe it does assume reinvestment of all income as well. I am guessing ML proved it out arithmetically.

Yes. Cost of capital on the organic is 0 or even negative as the years revenue is prepaid upfront.