Eldad

Looks like US Taxes are more likely to go down than up.

Lot of words to just say “Print Money”. There is nothing new under the sun.

I agree. I am a CPA and I kind of liked the challenge of taking those tests so I bought a CFA I study guide just for fun. I started going through it and somewhere around Sharpe’s Ratio I realized that the material was counterproductive.

I would expect him to have that on his wall with what they already own.

In my mind it is fairly obvious that KO and BNSF are more predictable businesses, super longterm, than AAPL. KO may not be a world beater, but it is extremely profitable. I think it could do very well if they would buyback some damn stock. Also, how does having the most cash in BRK history clean the slate or make things easier on Greg? If WB died tomorrow, it is hard to imagine a situation with more pressure.

Good decision. Crazy the political difference between Hillary and Kamala in just 8 years. But even if that is not the reason, good decision to keep your mouth shut.

True. America has entered the Bread and Circus period it feels like. Both parties competing to offer free stuff. It could take a long time but Inflation will most definitely be the policy of the US government from here on out. There is no other way.

Japan will collapse eventually. Supply Chains was 2021s lie I thought.

Because the US deficits now look like they are at the point of no return. 120% debt to GDP has historically been where most countries start to have problems. The US bond sell-off is concerning. Once the world knows that printing money is our only option, the inflation doom loop really starts.

Greg Warren downgraded the moat to Narrow at Morningstar. Basically cap allocation brilliance going away. Too big combined with no WB. I agree.

I have decided to go from about 15% to about 5% over the next couple of years. I started to think about how Charlie and Warren kind of brag about being lazy and how it helped them (hands off approach to subs, only buy during bear markets etc.) But then you start to realize that all of the successors sort of fell into their lap. 1. Ted paid millions to eat lunch with Buffett 2. Todd cold called Charlie over and over 3. Greg worked at MidAmerican 4. Jain, random introduction If you notice almost everyone in Warren’s stories of past friends, family, etc. is “extraordinarily talented” at this that or the other. I just don’t know if he actually knows if these guys are the best or if these are just the best he knows.

It’s a decentralized model so every company is pretty close to stand alone so I don’t think you can say there are deep BRK problems. It would have to be coincidental in that respect. You could say putting Todd in charge of Geico was a mistake and a deviation from the decentralized model. I would think the decentralized model has a higher risk of letting bad managers or lazy managers stay on too long. Like WB backing BNSF management for this long even though they were underperforming for over a decade. But I think that is the BRK way and decentralized is good. The bigger longterm risk in my mind is Greg and post WB BRK try to be more centralized and top down. I get that feeling from Greg but I could be wrong.

Yes that is correct. But considering that Norfolk Southern has slipped relative to itself since BRK bought BNSF it is a very ugly picture. In the years before the GFC Norfolk was running at about 25% and BNSF was around 22-23. Also, BNSF has a tremendous inherent advantage over Norfolk by being in the wide open West where it can run much longer trains and it is still lagging.

“Though BNSF carries more freight and spends more on capital expenditures than any of the five other major NA railroads, it’s profit margins have slipped relative to all five since our purchase. I believe that our vast service territory is second to none and that therefore our margin comparisons can and should improve.” WB 2023 letter So not only are they behind UNP (28%) they are even behind Norfolk at 22%. Ouch. The Canadians run at close to 30%. Glad they are making a change. PSR obviously works. If the whole industry has eaten your lunch for 10+ years, maybe you are not the lone genius but in fact the sucker.

Yes if you hand your kid a roll of hundreds or a bag of coins it would be very easy to do off books. I was just telling you the official IRS (US) rules.

Not to mention half of Europe went to permanent 0 (Soviet Union). Don’t by the dip when dealing with Bolsheviks haha.

I hear you but there is something to be said for it being counter-cyclical. Gold miners went up for years in the great depression while everything else went down. Gives you some serious optionality. Sometimes you don’t have the ability to wait 10 years for your stocks to come back and having gold under the bed might be helpful to bribe a border guard or get some food during times of extreme scarcity. Since QE it has performed better. 30% this year!

It’s insurance. 1930s, 1970s, Europeans that lived through WW2, etc. The upside was more than worth whatever they lost not being fully invested in stocks during the good times. In the US your gold would be included in you taxable estate. As long as you were below the exclusion (13.6 M per person) you would pay no estate tax on it. The basis of the gold would step up to the FMV at your date of death for your kids. But I’m guessing you are Canadian.

Yep, and still hated. Imagine when the momentum people finally get on board. Debt to GDP in the US is a problem and it’s not going away easily. Getting to the point where inflation has to be the unspoken policy goal.

Plus since he is the best odds maker in the world he would know that the GOP are almost guaranteed to win the senate this year (70+% odds) with Tester of MT finally getting the boot and Joe Manchin WV seat going GOP. So tax hikes are not happening. WB tax talk on Aapl was BS, let’s be honest.

Miners are moving hard today. Maybe finally happening.

Terravest 0 to 8% in 2024 Teqnion 0 to 4% in 2024 Lumine 0 to 1% in 2024 (for some stupid reason I sold my spun shares and then got to rebuy for twice the price)

But stocks at 470. He has an almost impossible job. I will shut up now.

Then that just means they make 100 billion with almost no capital requirements. ROE can be distorted but ROIC cannot as easily. Is 33x expensive for a 60 ROIC company? I don’t really think so. I wouldn’t buy it, but I sure wouldn’t sell it. I especially wouldn’t sell it if I had 100 million a day coming into my office and I had nothing else to buy with the proceeds but treasuries.

No not bullish. Just think why would he exacerbate the cash drag problem by selling half his stake in arguably the best business in the world. Apples ROIC is now over 60%. His Ben Graham angel was fighting with his Charlie angel and I think he may have made a big mistake. We will see.