Intelligent_Investor

Atlantic hurricane season starts off with a bang, Beryl breaking all the early season records. Looking like a re-2005 or re-2017

this is why they have inverse cramer

Fairfax

This is only for small illiquid stocks right? So no 700HK or 9988HK restrictions?

Damn wish I could've bought at these prices lol

Its low relative to the long run average rate of the 10 year. IIRC the 10 year has historically averaged around 6% so it makes sense the market will be above the historical valuation of the S&P 500.

Its because interest rates are low relative to historical rates, everything is priced vs risk free rate hence if bonds are overvalued everything gets expensive. As Warren said in 2018 if you think interest rates will remain low in the future, the S&P is dirt cheap.

I think the most rational thing for Greg is to break up Berkshire by splitting insurance/operating company into separate companies so each manager can stick to what they do best. But it might be Greg's successor that does that, if Greg wants to keep Warren's vision

You can get rich with a much lower than 50% win rate

I've seen way too many people who think that financing is not debt. These people have negative net worth but think they are fine because cash flow is positive.

Im like the exact opposite I get sad I didn't buy more at the bottom when I could have.

Lots of people use the Nifty fifty bust in the 70s as a cautionary tale of buying great companies too expensive and while its true that the bust was big and took a while to recover from, if you held an equal weighted basket of nifty fifty stocks bought the day before the crash and held for the next 45-50 years you would have outperformed every index by a large margin. In the end the truly great companies in the nifty fifty were what made a difference over time, when you have companies that can compound capital at high teens for decades its very very hard to pay too high a price just due to the math of compound growth.

EV/FCF, P/E or P/whatever are shit metrics because it doesn't take into account capital structure, they basically only work if the company is cash neutral

China was down the last several weeks, I'm assuming someone probably got wind of the news and was pricing it in

Market is probably pricing in the WSJ news this morning that the US is preparing to sanction China

Lmao this dude is a clown. Imagine shorting Microsoft or Amazon because its 18% overvalued based on what you think fair value should be. If I was an investor in his fund I'd be pulling capital right now because he obviously doesn't know how to manage money. Probably has a burner on r/WSB

I'd assume quite frequently...big tech can move tens of billions in market cap in a single tick

People are realizing rates and monetary policy will barely make a dent in inflation if you have a government that is gonna rain fiscal stimulus from the sky. Rate cuts generally only effect that ultra-rich and wall street, not as much main street. But fiscal stimulus and policies such as rent moratoriums, student loan forgiveness etc all puts money directly in the pockets of the average person who then goes out and spends driving up prices. Cutting rates will lead to asset price inflation, not inflation of every day items, and most assets are owned by the rich anyways who are have a lower propensity to spend vs the average middle class family.

IIRC they are investigating if dirty fuel was the reason for the power loss

Depends on timeframe tbh. 3/4 will probably not be great long term compounders, so if your time horizon is decades and not years it might be better to go with stuff like tech every 2-3 years when they get cheap for no damn reason.

I feel like they always have, Warren once he got big enough knew one of the biggest risks to Berkshire was political risk so he wants no part in that at all

I wasn't alive long enough to take advantage of Berkshire's huge run before the 2000s

Wouldn't that be insider trading if Muddy Waters shorted due to knowing insider info that a large shareholder was selling? That sounds pretty illegal to me

Honestly if he wants to short a few more shares I can lend him mine. Just gotta call me up

Most short sellers are frauds themselves is what I've found.