Luke

Can anyone here independently verify what happened in Butscha? Does the ukranian government have an interest to distort happenings so they receive foreign support? The article by Rhonhof is well thought through with the limited amount of ressources he has available. Nobody on this board has access to military information on happenings in this war either and can only repeat media news that are obviously not neutral. I like that he thinks about our interests, that are obviously different from the ones of Selensky and his government.

Attached find the proposal. Its very long but has a lot of detail and information regarding the conflict. Its in german, didnt want to translate it in english because its too long for the thread. Anlage.txt

Part 2: Gerd Schultze-Rhonhof Major General (ret.) December 24, 2023 To all party leaders, general secretaries of the parties, parliamentary group leaders in the German Bundestag and prime ministers of the federal states. The war in Ukraine has been raging for almost two years and there is no end in sight, nor any practical initiative from Germany that could bring about an early end to the war. After I unsuccessfully and without an answer turned to Chancellor Scholz and the SPD parliamentary group leader in the German Bundestag with a proposal on this issue, I am now writing this letter to all German party leaders, the parliamentary group and group leaders in the German Bundestag, the general secretaries of the parties and the prime ministers of the federal states with the request that they urge the federal government to mediate a rapid peace solution in the spirit of the following proposal (Appendix 2). When we look at the war in Ukraine soberly and consider it objectively, neither of the two warring parties can win it, unless it escalates into a "Third World War". Nevertheless, the USA, NATO, the EU and, within the above-mentioned communities of states, the Federal Republic of Germany are supporting the war as if it could be won by Ukraine. This is aiding and abetting the military delay of Ukraine's bankruptcy and the conscious acceptance of the continuation of mass killings and destruction in the war zone. It seems as if the leading political forces in Germany still believe they are faced with the military choice of "Russia or Ukraine". We should consciously face the political choice of "war or peace". Both together, a military victory for just one warring party and a lasting, reconciliatory peace are not possible. Looking at it soberly and objectively, Germany and our European allies are currently faced with eight (now 9) theoretically possible developments. All of the options open so far promise a bad outcome. None of them will end in anything better than a frozen ceasefire. None of the options will lead to real peace. NATO, the EU and Germany, with them, are at a dead end with their current Ukraine policy. The 8 (now 9) theoretical possibilities mentioned are: 1. Russia wins in the sense that it takes control of Ukraine. Then Germany and the West on the one hand and Russia on the other will find themselves in a cold war against each other for a very long time, to the detriment of both sides. 2. Ukraine wins in the sense that it recaptures all of the territories previously occupied by Russia. Then the approximately 8 million Russian citizens in Ukraine will face terrible persecution and punishment. President Selenskyj has announced this several times. And Germany is threatened by the next wave of refugees. 3. There is a military stalemate on the battlefield without a subsequent amicable peace solution. Then we are faced with a European "Korea solution" with a Cold War and a permanent source of danger in Europe. 4. The war will continue endlessly without a stalemate and victory. Then hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians will die senselessly and be mutilated. Ukraine will continue to be destroyed and Germany will continue to pay and supply weapons to Ukraine without end. 5. Negotiations will take place. Then, given the mutual preconditions put forward so far by both warring parties and the hardening of positions and hatred that has now occurred, and the interference from NATO, the EU and the USA that is certain to be expected, there will be months, if not years, of wrangling. Accordingly, the destruction and human sacrifices will "continue". Given the current Ukrainian and Russian preconditions for negotiations, it is predictable that there will not even be negotiations. 6. A ceasefire is reached. Ceasefires are not a solution to the problem of war, but merely a procedural step. After that, a balance of interests must be reached between the enemy neighboring states of Ukraine and the Russian Federation. There are currently no signs or willingness to balance interests among the warring parties, nor in NATO, nor in the EU, nor in the USA, nor in Germany's "political world." 7. Ukraine is clearly approaching defeat. Then there is a danger that NATO, and thus also the USA and Germany, will intervene in the war. All previous promises of assistance from NATO and EU states point to this, despite claims to the contrary. 8. NATO intervenes in the war in Ukraine with its own troops. Then there is a danger that Russia will reach the limits of its defense capabilities and, at the risk of its own defeat, will use tactical nuclear weapons in Europe. Russia will not dare to use strategic nuclear weapons against the USA, and the war will be fought in our Europe. Obvious targets for Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Europe would be the US command centers, from which American support for Ukraine is already being delivered and controlled, Ramstein and Wiesbaden. 9. The USA will withdraw completely from financial and material support for Ukraine after the next presidential election. Then the EU and its main financier Germany will continue to support Ukraine with greatly increased contributions of their own, as unsuccessfully as before, and keep the war "simmering". All promises of loyalty and assistance from Brussels and Berlin suggest this. This would draw Germany further and more deeply into the Ukraine's debt swamp than before. Since all the solutions attempted so far have led to nothing but further prolongations of the war, a way out must be found through a different approach. The approach to an early end to the war could be an arbitration award in the form of a completely and comprehensively formulated peace treaty that is negotiable for both warring parties. The proposal must satisfy the vital interests (not demands) of the two warring peoples - Ukrainians and Russians -, demand reasonable sacrifices from both sides, satisfy the right of self-determination of the affected population and present a result that is to be expected anyway after the war has continued. The arbitration procedure has prevented the outbreak of "in the air" wars twice in the last century. By proposing such a treaty text, both warring parties could assess whether they could come closer together on its basis and negotiate and reach agreement without "non-negotiable" preconditions or whether they prefer the continuation of the bloodshed and sacrifice of the war. The arbitration award should be submitted to the two warring parties by Germany, France and Italy - and for good reasons only by these parties. All previous calls for negotiations from NATO and EU circles were linked to unilateral renunciation conditions exclusively for Russia and were therefore unsuitable. Almost all previous calls lacked a concrete offer to Russia. I have spent 20 years researching the causes of wars, peace efforts and peace treaties and have written books about them. With this prior knowledge, I would like to present you with a proposal for such a fully formulated treaty text in my Appendix 2 to this letter. The guiding principle of this proposal is a balance of interests and the goal of long-term reconciliation. Since this approach is incomprehensible at first reading in view of the two years of pro-Ukrainian reporting and commentary in the German media and in view of the one-sided accusations against Russia that are widespread here in Germany, I would like to present you with a detailed justification for my proposal in Appendix 1 to this letter. In view of the hardened, one-sided self-determination of the Foreign Office in this matter, I refrain from submitting this proposal via the Foreign Office, which is actually responsible. I ask you to support such a German peace initiative within the Federal Government. If you wish, I am available to discuss further background information on my proposal. (Offer from December 2023 to politicians and members of parliament) With the token of my highest respect, Gerd Schultze-Rhonhof" Übersetzungsergebnisse verfügbar Briefe-Schultze_Rhonhof-Dez-23-und-Febr-24.pdf

Open letter to the German government from retired general Schultze-Rohnhof translated from german to english: Ladies and gentlemen! I did not serve as a soldier for 37 years to keep the peace in Germany, and now to watch without comment or action as Germany is slowly but probably being driven towards active participation in a foreign and senseless war. Our "Three Wise Men", Chancellor Scholz, Minister Lindner and Minister Dr. Habeck all initially refused military service in their youth years for Germany's law and freedom and the preservation of our democracy. They now spend far more than 10 billion euros of tax money per year on "law", "freedom", "democracy" and Western values in a foreign state that is neither a democracy nor represents Western values. They are prolonging a war that has now become senseless with our tax money and the blood of foreign conscripts. Ukraine is by no means a democracy and its values are not ours. In Ukraine, 11 opposition parties are banned. Zelenskyj has banned the presidential elections scheduled for March 2024 (these are taking place in Russia). In Ukraine, all media are aligned. No reports critical of Ukraine by German journalists are permitted from Ukraine (Russia-critical comments by German journalists from Moscow are quite common). In Ukraine, political murders are the order of the day (according to the three-week protocols of the Federal Agency for Civic Education until the start of the war). Ukraine and Russia are together the two most corrupt states in Europe (according to Transparency International). Buying out of military service is just as common in Ukraine as in Russia. With its list of sins of breaches of state treaties and violations of UN conventions and international charters, Ukraine is in no way inferior to the Russian list in frequency and severity. The type and frequency of Ukrainian war crimes are the same as those on the Russian side, only the misuse of humanitarian facilities protected under international law as human shields for fighting troops occurs only on the Ukrainian side (according to the OSCE report of June 29, 2022). This Ukraine is neither a democracy nor does it stand for our values, as the German media and the majority of our parties make us believe. The interpretation presented to us by the official side that Ukraine would help defend our values is as foolish as Struck's "Germany's defense in the Hindu Kush" was. I expect the former conscientious objectors in the Bundestag and the federal government - true to their previous spirit of peace - to actively work for an end to the war in Ukraine as quickly as possible and to break away from their unrealistic phantom ideas of a Ukrainian victory. I expect the same from all other rulers and parliamentarians. The idea of a possible reunification of two quarreling and now hating parts of a nation, who had already been at war with each other for eight years before the Russian invasion, into a future Ukraine of the same size is the dream of fools. The zeal of the majority of the two German parties to help the Ukrainians to victory with money and arms deliveries reminds me of a statement by Russian Lieutenant General Alexander Lebed, who said during the first Chechen war: "Let me recruit a company from the sons of the elite and the war will be over the next day." (Lebed was an unsuccessful presidential candidate in Russia in 1996.) The second question at issue here is whether the Russian Federation has actually threatened the West since its withdrawal from Central Europe, or even a single NATO country or other neighboring country after the end of the Soviet disintegration process. I will answer this question in detail in the justification for the letter to the politicians below. This justification follows as Appendix 1 to this email. Since August 15, 2022, I have tried to inform hundreds of MPs about the background to the Russian invasion and the events within Ukraine. Then I proposed a German initiative to bring the war to a rapid end to the war to the Chancellor and former chancellors and top politicians with still open channels of communication with Moscow. I sent my last attempt at Christmas 2023 with the following letter to members of the federal government, the parliamentary group leaders of all parties in the Bundestag, to all party leaders and general secretaries and to all state premiers. Only two party leaders on the sidelines of the plenary hall responded with approval and at all, but with the message that they could not do anything. I have just received the polite but negative response from the chairman of the largest opposition party, whose silence and ignorance of the long history of the war I cannot accept and whose allegations against Putin I largely cannot confirm. Allegedly proven but unjustified allegations were also a common flammable factor in the two world wars. Despite all politeness, the answer gives the impression that its author has not read the justification for my proposal (Appendix 1) at all. Some of the German people are now fed up of not being informed about the background to the war in Ukraine and of investing 10 to 15 billion euros annually in a senseless, foreign war and the further deaths of tens of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians, despite their own tight budgets. If the German government, in disregard of German interests, risks the war in Ukraine escalating into a conflagration and involving Germany as well - as originally feared by Chancellor Scholz - the people themselves must remind the government of its first duty. So far, the vast majority of German politicians have been primarily interested in a victory for the Ukrainians and a defeat for the Russians, and only secondarily in peace. Please read my Christmas letter to “politicians” and pass on my thoughts to other interested parties. And try to convince your representatives of the possibility of an early end to the war. Yours, Gerd Schultze-Rhonhof

I enjoy having these topics on this board because i think they are relevant to investors and the investing game in general.

I'll give you a different viewpoint: We see the following in the US economy: 1. Debt accumulation 2. Financialization over production 3. GDP misrepresents growth->interest payments, rising housing prices, and other assets count as GDP but don't reflect economic productivity 4. GDP growth mostly benefited the top 10% while wages, compared to purchasing power, stagnated for a large majority 5. Loss of manufacturing->Deliberately moving away from manufacturing that now relies on intellectual property, monopolies, and cheap foreign labor, especially from China->Increased dependency on other countries->Reason for the global interference of the US military At this point, the top 35% of the US SP 500 stock market does not represent the real economy of the US anymore but rather asset-light global monopolies that are highly dependent on other countries to provide their manufacturing while they increasingly transform into global utility businesses that are essential for doing basic business (AWS, etc., the backbone of the internet, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia) Except for China these are true monopolies and as long as no country does something against it they will grow further and extract further wealth of the global real economy. So in that regard its hard to not be bullish on them. On the other hand, these businesses dont employ the majority of americans but rather highly educated global workforces with the goal to go even further asset light and also replace these workers. Really amazing to watch. The asset hard economy of the US is hardly competitive globally and IMO will never be, thats the fate of a reserve currency too, hard to devalue your currency with that much demand and having all these large financial services businesses in your country. So the trend will only continue, less manufacturing, more asset-light tech and global control. Which is why democrat government interferes everywhere and why Trump doesnt want to because he stands for the real economy of the US and not Alphabet (biggest democract donor). So there you have the two different sides of the medallion. I dont think Trump is able to "make america great again", manufacturing just never can be where it was 40-50 years ago because of decisions that are irreversible. My prediction: SP 500 will do okay further->US will further meddle globally in politics->US tech stocks will become even stronger->nobody will regulate them or do anything. Question is what happens 20-30 years out because at some point the inner political turmoil in the US will become impossible to manage with this development.

part of the WOSG position at 14% gain in a month. Have concerns about rolex i just couldnt look over.

https://www.chinafile.com/reporting-opinion/notes-chinafile/its-too-convenient-say-xi-jinping-second-mao “It’s Too Convenient to Say That Xi Jinping Is a Second Mao”

Thats a very low bar you are setting. Doesnt take a "genius" to turn that company around from the shitter management this company had. And you are probably right, Elon can manage companies well but he is not a genius scientist that pushes the innovation these companies put out. Thats the entire point. He deserves credit where its due. Now on to discussing starship test launch!

Well said.

And i say this as someone who likes to listen to elon, to agree with many things he says and who is fascinated by what his companies put out!

Didnt say he is stupid, just gets too much credit

Its astonishing how you get from Xi and Putin to Elon Musk in this thread but okay. These things are totally different, rocket science and governance. I dont think both would be able to do what the tesla team does and do I even have to explain that? With respect, please move on from the China and Russia debate. Elon has a giant team behind everything that he markets under his name, many of them smarter than him and those people are left out of the picture completely. I think there are judgement errors on your part too. Him not having a proper degree that is a basic necessity to do one simple thing in this field shows me that he has some mighty smart workers that drive innovation and I am highly skeptical how much of the innovation of these firms is just due to his bachelor level physics input. Now i will leave you guys to further fanboy about Elon

Yep, Elon alone brought internet service to a disaster area (after the government failed to), unveiled a new self-driving taxi + humanoid robots, launched a 232 foot rocket, and caught it on the way back down. Just himself, alone at his office. What do the haters say to that? What have they acomplished by themselves that is equivalent to that?! He is literally Chuck Norris, alone.

Yeah, I agree. Buying twitter for 50b was just one of the "brilliant" capital allocation ideas he had. He marketed it a year and a half as the "we chat" super app and right now is only a MAGA echo-chamber with no customer-service and little cashflow. Just realize that Intel traded at 80b marketcap and he could have almost bought that instead of Twitter xD

Quite frankly, you can not pull of the innovation at spacex or tesla with an entry level physics degree which doesnt bring you anywhere and should not be taken seriously. He is a good salesman though, gotta give him that and he knows how to play the crowds.

Does anyone of the elon praisers on this thread now that he only has a bachelors of ARTS in physics and that the reason why spacex and tesla are so successful is because he probably has the most talented team that drives this innovation forward? Its truly sad that we see nobody behind these projects while he gains all the praise while he has contributed how much of the innovation exactly? As far as i see he could even only be some sort of project manager while some back office Phd team does the hard math...probably not even consisting of american nationals but asians (mostly indians lol?) on H1B-Visa living the american dream

Looking forward to this quarter's earnings season.

I meant no offense I can weather the storm!! Cheers!

But they are totally dependent on China now!

It's interesting how "unimpressed" Putin was about Western sanctions, etc, and focussed on China as the more important partner anyway based on economy size, manufacturing base, etc in the Interview with Tucker. I think also Russian Leadership sees the downfall in the EU with their current policies, lack of natural resources, climate targets that are only attainable with degrowth etc. They also see the bad manufacturing base in the US which makes it not as attractive of a partner as China.

You underestimate how deep and cheap we already have been, and I was a buyer also then!!!!

Stocks are dirt cheap, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Tepper doubles down, honestly! EDIT: As he said in the interview.

Important to remember that the statistics here are not adjusted for purchasing power parity. But americans can just move to thailand and live like a King while they can not do the reverse Greets to the retirement thread!