Luke

Yeah and how does he make a living when margins implode?

Considering trump is a "debt is dangerous" guy, i bet he will be hesitant on stimulus too. This COULD turn out into a massive crash frankly which is why i am not buying now.

Yeah, you will have inflation numbers and falling demand and falling exports. This will lead to a recession if it holds up for the next year. Fairfax looking good for corporate bond buying here frankly... China should be alright, they were priced so low and will use a stimulus, i am continue to sit on china and fairfax.

Sorry Greg but i really dont understand how you can stay in persistent denial. As @dwy000 said: In a normal process the cratered demand would result in a lowering of prices. Since the price increase is due to taxes, that's not possible. Most businesses can and will not lower their margins by the amount of tariffs paid. Hysteria at the wrong place if China trade more than 2x expensive for import AND export from one day to the other and every other country between 10-60% more expensive to import AND now export...got it.

Great time to buy his own company xD Hilarious

Haha, his need for tweeting daily "EVERYTHING GONNA BE ALRIGHT BE COOL" is so pathetic frankly.

Imagine that this has been crafted by the HIGHEST political persons in the biggest and richest economy in the world. Talking about meritocracy.

The funny thing is that the only way to prevent the damage is to fire a stimulus and more debt. Something trump wouldnt do MAGA and ego wise. He is in a tough tough spot now.

Worn-out criticisms? That's your opinion. I see them as totally justified. You totally underestimate the magnitude of what is just happening.

"Chinese President Xi Jinping is unlikely to face similar resistance in his tightly controlled country, and can line up monetary and fiscal stimulus for later this year to ease some of the social stress if needed. "Ultimately, it becomes a game of which country can actually manage its own population more effectively to manage the subsequent economic consequences from this trade war," said Zhiwu Chen, professor of finance at HKU Business School. "Trump has to face, or at least Republican politicians have to face a lot of electoral pressure, and the American media are still pretty much free," he said. "So I think Trump's ability to fight politically with China is not that great."" https://www.reuters.com/markets/limited-options-push-china-into-trade-war-attrition-with-trump-2025-04-08/

The fact that this is better policy than trump is quite sad.

Just this twitter post shows you what a disaster Trump is doing. He is losing support every minute. "Unlike many industries, there is no 'reshoring' solution for coffee. The U.S. simply does not grow coffee at commercial scale, and domestic tea production is virtually nonexistent. There is no viable domestic alternative in the short or the long term." "“You wrote, “Almost no business can pass through an overnight massive increase in costs to their customers,” and I fear this could be devastating enough to put me out of business. "" "If clients resist price hikes and my employees demand higher wages to offset their rising cost of living, we end up in a lose-lose scenario—no spending and no jobs." TLDR: Bill Ackman warns tariffs are crippling small businesses with soaring costs and urges a 90-day pause to avoid widespread bankruptcies

NEWS: Asus, Dell, Framework, Lenovo, Razer stop US sales. 2 weeks break for other producers waiting for the tariff effect. Enjoy the prices in local BestBuy or NewEgg, its not going to be fun.

What? There are now the highest tariffs in a century on a critical importer nation for a diverse set of products american citizens and companies need. And we are only having emotional hot takes?! Highly disagree. It would be in the long-term interest for me to become a billionaire, but how realistic is that? That is the critical question. Who is going to invest these trillions in not only new factories but also new companies that have to emerge that have to hire highly qualified workers...there will be a big gap for years and years and its uncertain that these companies or products are competitive globally (they will not) and have enough domestic demand EVEN with the tariffs. So far, there is no technology transfer, no slow IP stealing but just a brutal cut off and gamble on "they will call i am sure folks"...

Yeah, exactly how i see it frankly. Absolutely brutal, thanks for sharing.

yeah but maybe brokers wont be able to trade hongkong too, thats where the risks lies and i could imagine trump pulling every lever. if their vice president calls chinese peasants on live tv then anything can happen now.

Yeah, anything can happen now. There are no rules for trump, he will try to pull as many levers as he can get, banning chinese stocks from trading etc just a tiny one of them. And yeah, when the US is suffering from no China goods while they also have ruined their international relations it might be the perfect time to go for taiwan and risk a war against the US where trade and relations are ruined anyways. All developing into a very hot environment right now.

How big are your losses and holdings? Good luck.

How can anyone take JD Vance and this Administration seriously? Calling Chinese peasants on live TV, wow. How lower can they go?

Have you sold your holdings yet?

The crazy part is the US already controls more than 50% of the worlds economy and trump totally ignores the gigantic services sector via the MAG 7 that are international monopolies. The US hosts some of the richest individuals on the planet and the most wealth by controlling economies internationally, and he still manages to portray the US as victims of hostile foreign countries that take "their jobs away". The opposite is the truth, US capitalists moved away all these jobs in a greedy decision to seek cheaper labor, as simple as that, while their massive service and tech sector can not employ and does not want to pay middle-class citizens because its becoming more and more automated and requires highly educated labor, not the typical maga voter, leaving the disappointed and perceived poor MAGA voter further behind. The factories will also become increasingly asset light leaving the disappointed and perceived poor maga voters behind again. The US never managed to properly distribute the wealth so living standards rise equally and if they can not even manage some level of wealth distribution then they surely will not manage to move trillions of automated factories over to their country and organize an angry and entitled labor force to produce low margin factory goods. Trump is the master of perception and has good rhetoric skills that move the masses which enabled him a second term but he wont achieve anything of what he promised: More money into the pockets of consumers. What is going to happen when in 5 to 10 years factories run by themselves and only require highly educated Phd manufacturing/process engineers etc? Whats the average education level of someone who voted for trump? Do you guys really think that the future lies in the manual manufacturing of low margin "china goods" where they are produced in a fordist type way? Trump lives in the wrong century...that might have been the case from 1910-1980 but those times will never come back. So closing the trade deficit will only lead towards one development: 1. Higher prices for the angry and disappointed trump voter 2. more costs for domestic businesses that won't become more competitive in the process, leaving them with higher capex than players that can compete internationally without tariffs and already own their factories in the right places 3. possible retaliation for already very successful businesses like Meta, Google, because Trump tries to distort trade, which hurts even the successful companies 4. Massive inflationary forces: there will be a price shocks worse than covid where all companies raise prices together leading to inflation levels above 10% yoy. Even if you remove the tariffs the prices will not go lower due to a unified price increase same as covid, then possibly a recession that is happening for the largest part in the US where trump then has to use a stimulus bazooka and monetary interventions. You can not reverse 30 years of Chinese manufacturing development with a Chinese labor force of 1/3 of global engineers and a domestic environment specialized in manufacturing. Just look at US university costs, the engineers are not developed enough there, costs are too high, the debt pile afterwards is too high, etc. You couldn't find the proper talent with the right work ethic. Change my mind but who thought trying to reverse this is a good thing? Did anyone who says "the us has a trade deficit" look at gigantic international control of US corporations that never wanted to go back more into the US because you couldnt make a decent enough of a return there? Forcing them with tariffs will enable such returns? As far as i see it, Trump is pulling a desperate move to force unproductive and no-return investment back into his country by playing an illusive remaining strenght of the US ecomony that can easily be replaced by China/Asia except for the tech monopolies. I expect that he will try to force amazon, alphabet, apple etc to join him in his coercion by threatening with cut-offs of important servers and services, thats where it will hurt.

China should retaliate with an immediate 75% tariff, you know, just to show who the big guy is.

Haha funny guy. Who is more self-reliant, the all producing manufacturing hub China or the US? Crazy guy. Interested to see what happens if there are 50% tariffs on anything from China, one of the largest most critical trading partners...

Yeah, the insensitivity and ludicrous math behind the tariffs and the total disregard of conversations about these tariffs is unacceptable on a political level. It completely destroys trust and reliability. I think Nato is also quite at risk now because you just can not rely on trump. Trump needs to feel now that there are limits to his power and that he can not push countries around like pawns on a chess board. So i think the rest of the world collaborating on how to use this blunder could lead to a huge shift in economic power, maybe in favor of the EU but also China... Problem as always is that trump has one man power while the EU has to discuss everything through multiple instances...

Trump will be here for multiple years. If people bow down to his demands then he will fuck them over and further enrich the US. Thats not smart long-term, also not for my portfolio since i barely own US assets.