I think all of the things mentioned are factors. But for anyone to say NATO using Ukraine as a launch site against Russia is not a factor is simply ignorant. US wouldn’t stand for missiles in Cuba or Canada pointed at us. “Just keeping the peace though”.
Putin has been saying for over a decade this was a concern. I think there is credibility to Ukraine being a geographical point of defense. Zeihan has pointed this out as well. Does Putin want the USSR back? Probably so. I mean he grew up there and saw a country that in his eyes was great and United and strong end up in ruins. He’s wrong, but his sentiment or nostalgia is understandable. A lot of people seem to miss the fact that Putin also understands the degrading demographics of Russia. So this being a last ditch effort to maintain the Motherland is understandable through his actions (although not justifiable).
People will probably say that I’m crazy for saying that as well, but it’s well documented. And in my opinion if people can’t understand that point of view the. 1.) You haven’t walked in another’s shoes 2.) They don’t understand humans, political sociology, or nation states and likely think geopolitics is nothing more than a black and white game of risk.
Putin is not a rational actor. He sees this as a last ditch effort and that he is backed into a corner. This is primarily why I think deescalation at all costs should be forefront on the Wests minds. Not matching escalation with weapons that are basically used for war crimes. This is the closest we’ve been to a nuke clacking off in a long time and too many people see this situation as simple and in black and white terms whit it is far far from that.
As Bertrand Russell said….You can only expect a man to walk a tightrope so long before he falls…..
sometime some day someone will clack one off and everyone if they survive will lol back at how foolish they were in their thinking. It’s short sighted by the west. We came close enough with Cuba…