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I've owned Fairfax since 1994 and I did add small amounts about 25 times in the period where we here on the COBF forums were obsessing over the valuation. I do not think about Fairfax very often but when I do I always have the same thoughts, much like those I have given I inherited Berkshire in 1975. Here goes: When the price of Fairfax is consistently rising investors obsessively think long term and increasingly get both satisfied and comfortable holding the stock and even consider or act to increasing their holdings. When the stock isn't rising or declines, and this can come both justified and not justified, investors obsess with short time horizons and also they get extremely valuation focused. This valuation focus is generally either PE or price-to-book, but it goes micro focused. My view, one I've shared previously, is that insurance is very much a skill business and the best managements simply are destined/guaranteed to outperform those with less skill. I rank Fairfax very high or even at the top of the skill parade both underwriting and on the investment side. The safest thing in my view isn't to buy the one Berk vs Fairfax selling at the best perceived value, the best thing is to figure out, maybe even model, how much fear and need to escape you'll experience in a price falling atmosphere and judge your level of holdings based on that. The price falling can be both Mr. Market's manic-depressive mood or an event - internal or external - or a cycle or whatever. But if you can profile yourself as well as you can value the business then you can extend your time horizon. Simply put, I would not own more stock than I can stomach for a downtrend. If you can extend your time horizon and manage yourself, your stomach turmoil, then you have a huge probability of doing well owning Fairfax.

I don't do weightings but if I did, higher conviction = more overweight.

With 2-Year Treasuries currently at 4.35%, I think that sacrificing 0.35% of yield for the optionality of being able to redeploy at maturity makes sense, but I’m not in Brian B’s stratosphere in terms of bond investing. -Crip

And yet BMO has a target of $2500 cdn.

Hearing its BMO with the estimate but I haven’t seen the note.

Curious what this board thinks of allocation weight to Fairfax. The dilemma is that I'm already overweight (by quite a bit) Fairfax and Fairfax India - so without going to deep into the details, is investing a huge chunk of your portfolio into Fairfax as "safe" as BRK (I'm tempted to say arguably safer given it's relatively cheaper, but we've also seen Fairfax's past mistakes which have been a bigger drag than what BRK has experienced in its history)

its worked out pretty good with 10 year touch 4.7% today

Yes, I don't think FFH thinks this is an "ideal market for investment grade bond investors". If they did, I think they would extend duration.

FFH is less I think around 2

I listened to the Chubb call yesterday. I thought it was interesting that their Chief investment officer said " This is an ideal environment for investment-grade bond investors" . I will be curious to see what Fairfax is doing on the bond front. I think CB average maturity is around 5 years.

Whole market is down, seems GOOGL's capex guide + middle east flare ups spooked the market

Relentless selling here. If we go below $2000 again, hopefully they lean even harder into the buyback and exhaust it early.

That's kind of subjective.. I find golf extremely boring and yet millions like it.. Billions of people enjoy watching soccer.. I think it's only a toss-up when the teams are closely matched, there is a degree of luck in sports. But you will never see something like Toronto FC beating FC Barcelona..

Chapter 7 and 11 looks juicy to read

I bought this book in 2021 in an obscure second hand book shop in Vancouver. Have not fully read it yet. I knew of the operation as a Montrealer, so that is why it caught my attention. It is an interesting topic. Imagine a world without Michael Saylor and Bitcoin !! What it takes to make the largest movement of wealth from Great Britain to Canada. During WW2, the entire wealth of British treasury was sent in secret to Montreal and kept inside the SunLife building. That became the “collateral” that kept Britain line of credit open. The Canadians being Canadian did not charge any handling/storage fee. *sigh* Total Valuation (Gemini) Wartime Nominal Value: Roughly £1.5 billion to £1.8 billion at the time (equivalent to over $5 billion to $7 billion USD in 1940 values). Modern Inflation-Adjusted Value: Estimated at $160 billion to $300 billion USD today.

Click this link with a Quartr enabled mobile phone, not a computer - digit slides from this morning https://web.quartr.com/link/companies/21159/events/656115/slide?sp=0

I thought BAIL was going to be capped out at about 77M passengers. BIAL has now received environmental clearance to increase capacity to 114M Passengers, including a new Terminal 3. They expect to reach 100M passengers by 2035. https://newsfirstprime.com/bengaluru/big-boost-for-bengaluru-airport-kia-gets-green-nod-to-double-passenger-capacity-to-114-million-12190288

That is correct. The transformation that has already occurred in the Middle East is remarkable. Rather than focusing on near term politics, Trump and Israel are seeking long term solutions. The possibilities are incredible for most moderate Arab countries, along with the rest of the World. Iran will eventually share the bounty but it will require regime change. That is Israel's express goal - with or without US assistance. My guess is a lot is happening that is not being reported so the usual complainers will continue to complain while real progress is being made.

Just little gossip. Spanish football player who scored in world cup final is sponsored by Under Armor

Yes sir

I doubt that Israel will allow Iran to make billions of dollars from the Strait since the money will be used to attack Israel. Given Iran's current regime well known goal of wiping Israel off the map, the threat to Israel is existential, and hence I doubt that Israel will let it stand.

Fairfax in past years was built to withstand a Category 5 Hurricane hitting Orlando, an 8.0 Earthquake hitting Los Angeles, and a 50% drop in the S&P500...all happening in the same year! That was years ago...they are in far better financial shape today and their portfolio is more than well-positioned for any such scenario. The stock would get hit like anything else, but they would make more money at the end of the day as Txvestor alluded to. Right now, intrinsic value increases quarterly just about, and Mr. Market is not taking that into consideration. Once they recognize it, and it may be a ways off, the surge will be similar to what we saw in the past few years. Perhaps not quite that dramatic as it was trading at 0.6 times book, but the market will recognize the increase in intrinsic value over the next few years as they continue to compound it! It's inevitable! Cheers!

The one thing that could get Charlie Munger's eyes rolling was every time Whitney stood up to pose a question at the Berkshire meeting! Also, where was Whitney when Fairfax was being shorted in 2003...who were the managers/journalists he was hanging out with back then? Viking, Bsilly, LotsofCoke and a whole host of people understand insurance far better than Whitney! No reflection on your Fairfax pitch, I'm sure it was good...but there's a reason he wanted to share it in his newsletter. Cheers!

Yes. LITE is the direct Google proxy. COHR mgmt not pumpers, but its the best managed company in the bunch. CRDO moves on whatever Hock Tan says. AAOI is dog shit operationally and product wise, but they're the higher beta name. So goes up and down more than the remainder. AAOI could work for a trade.

That would be bad, it might cause a temporary $5-6B hit to equity(mark to market) and might even cause a negative eps year. Other insurers will very likely get hit even harder. However I'll ask a couple of Qs. 1) What do you think will be the response of the federal reserve in that scenario? 2) What do you think will happen to insurance premiums 3) What will happen to their bond yields/interest earnings once they opportunistically extend duration? It might get the stock price to fall maybe even get cut in half but I don't think it risks the company. And by the time 1-3 play out the EPS and valuation would be insane.