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Plus I'd add that "wipeout" here would be a 100% loss. Far better than the unlimited upside(downside) known to be brought up as a detriment to shorting. Either way, hoping for some shorter term mean reversion and sensibility. Too many apes just chasing the same few names. Not dissimilar from the past half decade or so, but at least the FANG and MAG7 stuff were quality companies.

Mostly a lurker so far, but this seems to be where the action is — so, recent adds, small slugs each: EQT — flat YTD while everything AI-adjacent went vertical. The buildout's binding constraint is electrons, not chips, and the demand behind EQT is now contracted, not narrative. Breaks on Henry Hub: the volume is de-risked, the price isn't. VICI — gaming triple-net at ~9x, high-6s yield. The rate de-rated, not the business: AFFO still growing, full occupancy, CPI-linked escalators. I'm paid ~7% to wait out a rate cycle. Breaks on tenant rent coverage, not on the 10-year. ISRG — the installed base is the razor blade; instruments and procedures recur, the robot is almost incidental. Cheaper this year for a legitimate reason — credible competition — and I paid up knowing it. Breaks if procedure growth decelerates while instrument pricing compresses: two lines, same filing. Common thread: things this tape left behind. Not advice — small discretionary book, sell-discipline keyed to business KPIs, and a ledger that will report back when one of these makes me look foolish.

Yeah you sell chips at a low PE and buy at a high one. The lower the PE the closer to the peak probably. Oh yeah they aren’t cyclical anymore I forgot.

That seems to be close to what I am thinking for bond losses.

It’s a bit under a 3% position so if it’s a wipeout it’s nbd. An 8x a generational EPS run is stupid expensive, not cheap. Didn’t we see that with Zoom not long ago? And yes, video meetings were gonna be big and still are big.

Good afternoon. I'm from Argentina, so perhaps my analysis is a bit biased. I think France and Argentina are the teams playing the best right now. Since it’s a short tournament, I believe there are several young teams (USA, MOR) that could emerge as surprise contenders and there's also the Brazil factor. For me, the most important thing is that the level of play has been very high so far; it’s truly enjoyable to watch.

Congrats !!!

I’ve been through 2000. But I don’t think this is a bubble that will burst soon. Might just be the beginning

Ya, I've been burned a few times trying to short the market via puts or buy vix calls/futures. I have an inclination that the best way to bet against this stuff is to buy far OTM puts, either long dated or continuous rolling of short dated. You'd lose on anything but massive drops, but if we do think this is a bubble, then we should bet on massive drops only.

If I had visited New York 10 years ago in my early twenties before I was married with a mortgage it would have forever changed the trajectory of my life. My tiny midwest eyes were so closed. I thought I was well traveled because I had been across the entire American West and a few foreign countries. But New York is a different beast.

Everything you said rings true now that I made a cursory visit there. Thank you!

wish i made 2.2bln....hot damn

The founding fathers of BTC, saw that "bad money" as the product of central banks .... Like any tool, it does some things better than others (store of value, vs medium of exchange), and it is to the owner to use appropriately. SD

Great game!

Fuck YEEEEEEEEEEES

BTC leg of a mid Feb pair trade sold at around USD 89K (via a BTC-ETF), the o/g leg put on shortly before the Iran war. While analytics helped with the decision, the reality is that much of it was luck ... and exposing ourselves to it (tail risk). Long straddles ..... Good luck. SD

Wait, it's not as simple as good money vs. bad money? Was left with the impression that "bad money" is stored in the evil bank while earning interest +/- the rate of inflation and can be used to buy or sell anything while "good money" can't be used to buy much of anything, isn't even used by some of its most ardent supporters and is priced all over the place as measured in "bad money"? You learn something new here every day.

That shit scares me, 2x leveraged funds can wipe you out. Largest short position you have by owning this is on Micron which is trading below 8x forward PE. Sure forward PE can be optimistic but still... Purely a sentiment feel on my part but I think you might be too early on this one which can be fatal on 2x leveraged funds.

It comes down to BTC man systematically benefiting from inflation (digitally), versus fiat man benefiting from inflation via price appreciation on a hard asset such as a house (analog). Of course, nothing prevents either man from using both approaches, and many do . It just needs the US Federal Reserve to run the presses! SD

Belgium game is killing me

Oh I see, it all comes down to "bad money" vs. "good money". Honestly, I couldn't have even made that one up! The only economic theory that matters is whether I am accumulating wealth through my investments efforts. So far so good sans BTC.

"Tells me everything I need to know" that you're ignoring the entirety of economic theory and historical observations of people spending 'bad' money before 'good' money.

I don't care about Porsche or Ferrari. The fact is, you didn't even TRY to use it. Tells me what I need to know. And unless I'm desperate and trapped in a Country with a currency that depreciates by the week, I don't need another store of value. That is what investments are for. Until the advent of BTC, who used the term "store of value"? Currency was always a "means of exchange". No one with any sense at all retained large sums of non-interest bearing cash for long periods of time.

I've transferred value on the BTC network on many occasions. But never to dispose of it. The network exists. The transfer protocol exists. The fees are low. The settlement near instantaneous. I didn't wait 90 minutes, pay a $20 fee, nor seek permission to spend my own money when doing it. I don't need Porsche to accept a payment for a new engine to prove that concept for me. It would strengthen the medium of exchange argument of Porsche accepted it, but we're still not there yet... And bears would ignore it even if Porsche did just like you're ignoring it that Ferrari does. People can't even agree that it's a store of value which is still step #1. We're still early and there's plenty of time for it to be adopted as a medium of exchange and unit of account next.

Dude, have you seen my portfolio? You absolutely nailed my strategy.