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Here's an update on how the CoBF 2026 picks from the end of last year are doing so far. The arithmetic mean of all picks is up under 3%, well behind US indexes. These are the five best picks. Dividends are not included, but I doubt that makes much of a difference. Security Ticker Proponent Current Price In USD Price On 12/31/2025 In USD Return SanDisk Corp SNDK kh812000 $1,988.69 $387.81 412.80% Entravision Communications Corp EVC shhughes1116 $12.69 $2.93 333.11% EQ Resources ASX:EQR shhughes1116 $0.193 $0.056 244.39% Liquidia Corp LQDA Rainier, InofeIsOne $73.33 $34.49 112.61% Garrett Motion Inc GTX hasilp9 $35.05 $17.43 101.09% Fortinet Inc FTNT Rainier $156.53 $79.41 97.12% Using an arithmetic mean of picks, the three best stock pickers are: kh812000 117.30% shhughes1116 117.20% Longnose 75.60%

Thank you both ( @SafetyinNumbers and @djokovic1) for pointing us to these charts (and I will agree that I happen to like the formatting with the green bars better as well)! It appears to me that the actual catastrophe dollars displayed on the charts are not inflation adjusted, and are relatively similar in dollar magnitude for the last 9 years, while the equity base on which the cat tolerance is calculated has been growing significantly. We’re seeing the power of the business model at work I believe. If we look out another decade or two, if we are fortunate enough to escape the big 1-in-250 year or even rarer type year of really bad catastrophe years, I can envision a future where this risk continues to moderate and becomes almost as much of an afterthought as it is currently for Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire most recently appears to want to retain about $20 billion in cash against the possibility of a mega catastrophe year. That’s less than a half year of their normalized earnings, and much less than 15% of their shareholder equity. Similarly, management of Fairfax seems to have developed sufficient underwriting and risk management discipline to continue to reduce the probability that catastrophic insurance losses might represent a “company killing” event in the future. While the holding company is just over 40 years old, at least one of its subsidiaries (Crum & Forster) has been “alive” since it was incorporated over 200 years ago in 1822. That’s a good example for the holding company to want to emulate, and all indications are that they are on the right track.

Plus hasn't South Korea instigated a baby boom with their generous birth subsidies? That should be domestic consumer spend positive too.

Adding to BN, Fairfax, and bought a restarter in OLN. I had OLN at $40 that I was able to sell at break-even through help of some option plays. It's now at $20, chlor alkali markets are stabilizing, and they are merging with an end user of their raw materials. Worth another shot.

Brazil have no midfield. Two over the hill 34 year olds are the best that the country can offer? Crazy

But I am curious: what is your prediction of what won’t end well with me?

Excellent point. Should also note the inference/API costs which the AI bulls say are coming down 1000x are not really calculated costs. It's cost to reach a benchmark. These benchmarks have been public for a long time now and it's very easy to train future models or existing models to optimize for the bench. Like the folks on Shitter say, "benchmaxxing". So inference/token costs coming down is an illusion.

https://a16z.com/the-cost-of-cloud-a-trillion-dollar-paradox/ LOL.

Adding to Nintendo

@jinvest, A belated welcome to CofB&F to you! ! , - - - o 0 o - - - In general, it is better options to ignore a CofB&F member, which posts are bugging you [it's in your profile options], or as an alternative, you are suggested to use the report option in upper right corner of such post, to get the attention of the right person.

Thanks. I missed that the updated report came out. I like the green better!

With all this money from the memory chip windfall sloshing around on South Korea , I think expect to see a boom in consumer spending. Some of this should go towards Coupang.

I liked Joe at the beginning of the year, and still like it

Sorry to hear that.

Do it lol

High Praise indeed. Thanks! For anyone interested my full review is in 3 parts which you can find here: https://substack.com/@buildingarks/note/c-260954936?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=j8x31 Apologies in advance - it is overlong and needs an edit, which I hope to find time for in July.

Honestly, time to ban Blake. (Who am I? Nobody, but I've been on lots of forums, and it's not gonna end well...)

Yeah not arguing with your ownership point. But for me that falls back on immigration again. Hasn't helped us in that regard... I agree on the EU risks, just seeing a lot of those for US as well. They will lose their reserve currency status at one point...

Which freedom do you think US citizens have that we do not?

Let's see... I believe my two ideas were CROX and Nintendo. One worked exceptionally well, the other needs a longer timeframe than a year unfortuantly. I like CSU, JOE, Fairfax, CPNG for the rest of the year, not to shill my portfolio too much

Intuit. Are hundreds of thousands of small business going to decide to vibe code their accounting software?

Trading freedom for security essentially. And I'm saying this without judgment.

I really liked the presentation for daikin from Elliott and they bought i think almost 5% back.

Thanks for pointing out the Elliott presentation on Daikin - I hadn't noticed this and used to follow this industry pretty closely. For those interested, here is a direct link to Elliott's presentation on Daikin: https://elliottletters.com/wp-content/uploads/EN-Elliott-Management-Releases-Presentation-on-Daikin-Industries-Ltd.pdf Daikin and Mitsubishi have a great quality reputation (outside of Daikin's Goodman unit which has a low-cost/bad reputation) but I worry that like in so many industries the Chinese giants Midea & Gree are just going to eat huge chunks of global marketshare on price competitiveness. Midea and Gree are the manufacturer of an enormous amount of HVAC equipment that had other brand names on it. There is more to the industry than Residential HVAC and mini split heat pumps but I just see Midea & Gree killing it with their contract manufacturing divisions and they are everywhere. Price is low, quality is plenty good. When Daikin bought Goodman in the US, the best part of that deal was the overnight distribution advantage they acquired. According to Elliott they haven't done much to integrate any of those acquisitions. Anyway, I like HVAC and have my EPA 608 certification and do a lot of free HVAC repairs for friends and family and it's always an industry that has interested me. Plus its over 90 degrees F where I live so its important