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Opticals like AAOI/CRDO/LITE/COHR etc? AAOI dropped like nearly 60%, i thought of picking up a few shares but chickened out. I do like CRDO better than AAOI tho. Afterhours today the AI names have not run yet on increased Google CapEx, which is kind of weird. But i guess one day does not make a market.

Balance sheet and reserves weren’t as strong back then were they?

I think what could get FFH into trouble is 2 thing occurring at the same time - a bond and equity market crash and a bad combined ratio due to catastrophes spiking in a year. This happened in 2001/2002 for example.

The 202 is surprising. The $130 estimate for Q2 an analyst is expecting seems crazy. Anyone know who it is? Definitely set up to miss. Not sure if the market will care.

I actually think that will end up happening more or less. The gulf states know that they will need to live with Iran no matter what and will hedge their bets accordingly and make a deal with Iran of some sorts,

Short answer: The counterfactual: if the market had not decided to reward them with a 3x, they would now have a P/E multiple under 3.

yep that math checks out.

BMI

Revenue, earnings, BVPS and price momentum. Interest income momentum slowed Q2 last year, gross premiums had been slowing. That’s when the multiple peaked. It’s unclear where the multiple will bottom during the soft market but there is reason to believe BVPS can grow 15-20%. One would think buyback will also help soak up supply.

This is also exactly what AMZN, MSFT & META calls are gonna look like. Onwards and up.

Cue GOOGL's earnings call. The CapEx train keeps going. Semis gonna double, opticals will likely triple. In the meantime, even they are gonna buy capacity from neoclouds. No way they can undercut or give a better deal to SMBs or competing wrappers than DOCN. So that's going run as well.

most podcasts/content is entertainment masquerading itself as "research". entertainment is fine just don't lie to yourself. there is a big difference between a book (or self reading financials) vs listening or watching passively to videos/podcast etc. One medium is clearly more entertainment focused. the gold standard imo for podcasts is Dave Senra (Founders), no Fairfax episode but has done Munger #329, Mark Leonard #246, Li Lu #362, Nick Sleep #365, et al. 40+ hours of reading per episode. my guess is these guys spent under 3 hours in an AI before the episode.

Yeah I like Whitney’s daily summaries. And he definitely understands the p&c insurance model ie valuing berkshire very well. He was there at the Italy conference (he co-hosts it), he liked my Fairfax pitch and wanted to share it in his newsletter.

What if US just leaves? I could see Trump just leaving and pretending that the war never happened. Trump has reached max frustration and he's finally realizing there are no options left. Iran charging a few million per tanker was always the easiest option and it still is.

You're maybe going a little too easy on them - if I want entertainment, I would hardly listen to a spiel about a boring insurance company as an investment. And if you are going to do a serious service to investors, you have to at least get some basic facts straight like the ticker, where the major earnings are from, the threats and opportunities, basic details about the big holdings like Eurobank, Poseidon and Sleep Country and, if you have to mention something like Metlen with its P/E of 0.20 (which is actually a P/E of 20), fine, but get it right, especially if you have checked it twice (how do you do that, and still get it wrong?!) As Viking says, it just goes to show that Fairfax is not easy for most retail investors. Here's a much better effort, from Whitney Tilson, today: https://stansberryresearch.com/whitney-tilsons-daily/two-pitches-for-fairfax-financial

What made the market suddenly realize they're amazing at what they're doing post the lost decade? I've only been following FFH for a couple of years so I'd like to understand why all of a sudden the market decided to reward them with an 3x post 2022? I would assume a combination of cheap valuation (below BV) + better investment strategy + higher interest rates + buybacks? I think pre-2022 the coverage and talk about FFH was even lower than it is today. And while many more people are familiar with the name today (maybe in search of a new BRK) so far that hasn't really have much of an effect. Probably the subdued growth due to softening markets leads to many investors skipping it?

I would hard disagree because there should be cumulative knowledge/expertise to rely upon, especially for "sophisticated" investors. But I don't mean to trash too much - end of day, they are entertainment oriented, I guess.

Large institutional capital is either passive or has to beat the market in the short term. These days that means owning momentum. For a long time owning quality was good enough and that’s what most active investors own and screen for. Fairfax doesn’t pass their screens. I think it’s that simple.

Hubris will eventually be this guys downfall. Either that or a stroke. https://news.sky.com/story/donald-trump-ordered-to-reveal-financial-records-in-10bn-bbc-lawsuit-13566062

The million $ question is why is it so hard for (apparently sophisticated) investors to understand and value Fairfax? Some analysts appear to have the same challenge.

HaHa! - Better entertaiment than the football played!

My short answer is let's revisit this in 20 years. Trajectories of these countries is totally different IMO.

You're joking, right?

Having to do 1 post/video a week means DD is going to be shallow...especially if you are not discussing with experts (on the subject/company)...true for every substack or podcast out there. Will Thorndike does the 50x podcast which is of the highest quality possible: 2 companies researched in 5 years, maybe 10 episodes?

The more I think about what I was listening to, it's both frustrating and annoying. Poor research and poor curiosity and real lack of knowledge on the pod's part, especially with their outward facade of expertise or due diligence.