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Among other things, the continued deteriorating financial condition of competitors will just force prices higher which I think should lead to substantial improvements in profitability.

I think it’s the wrong take. Next step in the war would have been and the casualties on both side would have been terrible. The battle of Okinawa, which was Japanese homeland showed how bloody this might ha r been. 240 thousand casualties (1/3 of the population), roughly 70 thousand Japanese edema and 14 thousand allied (mostly US) soldiers. Imagine an invasion of the mainland and you could multiples this by at last 20c and likely higher. Truman was the president after Roosevelt died and the bomb sort of fell in his lap. He was well aware of a monumental consequence but how could he not try to end the war early by using it? Put yourself in his shoes and think about it and tell me how he would not have used this weapon on his arsenal? Everyone of us in his shoes would have made the same decision.

The funny thing is Blake, you are telling people who have been listening to Buffett for far longer than you...who have actually met or known Buffett...that they aren't listening to Buffett or have no idea about the risks in the economy. Do you see how moronic that is? Buffett also said that if he was managing a million dollars or less, he would be fully invested in the markets all of the time and could get 50% annualized returns. But you are playing macro games. Again, the irony is that you really don't know what Buffett is talking about or doing. Very few actually do. I am the furthest thing from MAGA...I've also never been a Nazi...I'm also not a psychopath. But if you were fighting in the Second World War, you would want to know what your enemy was thinking. If you were a detective, you would want to know what the psychopath might be thinking. And if you are a Democrat/Liberal, you would want to know what a MAGA acolyte is thinking and why. In life, you should stand for things...but absolutism is not a rational stance. If the facts change, change your position...don't adhere to something solely because you are adamant you are right and everyone else is wrong. I've found the best investors, and generally the most rational human beings, are the ones that are intellectually honest with what they know and don't know. And most don't waste their time arguing with people who cannot see that! Cheers!

CME, PAX, SPGI, MSFT (adds or starter positions).

+ tip. I bought one for $19 in Atlanta. Those stories are true. To be fair, it was a German Maß.

I'll have some of what he's having

Is it my favorite idea in the world? No, but I think implementation is going to be much harder given Dems don't have a history of steamrolling their politics thru. I think they are more reliant on compromise, in comparison with MAGA. My recollection was even Obama being held a bit in-check by his own party. Not sure I'd call it a mirror image either as Trump kind of co-opted the tea party, unless you think Mamdani is going to similarly co-opt the DSA? I don't think he has nearly the star power as our boy DJ Trump

Realassetsvalue actually found the earnest money amounts which is really low (just ~1% of asset value) I'd regard that as bullish in that the buyer didn't walk away from a HUGE amount of money indicating some gigantic issue...Like let's say there's a $30 million issue. It'd obviously be rational for buyer to try to retrade or walk away from $1.5-$3 million. a $30 million issue would be okay / is quantifiable. next buyer can price it in. now...of course there's no way to actually know. More on the RIverside Apartments sale contract: Riverside is under contract to the Beitel Group, which is the family office of a family that’s made their money in multifamily real estate. The inspection period is through June 4th with target closing date of July 6th with $1.5m earnest money deposit due 2 days after contract was signed (May 8th) and $3.0m due at the end of the inspection period. Given the small earnest money deposit, the fact that we’re still early in the inspection period, and that the buyer is a savvy multifamily operator who will rely on debt financing to close, this isn’t yet a done deal but they will have done their due diligence and hopefully know what they are getting into.

a) the buyer decided to not proceed following inspection. I assume the building has greater than underwritten deferred maintenance, or, at worst, significant structural issues. Whatever the problem is, the buyer forfeited the earnest money in order to avoi buying the building. I didn't find disclosure of the deposit amount. b) I don't know. They've stated they're getting rid of all employees and liquidating. this is the last thing (assuming the otehr 3 close of course). IF those other 3 close, you'd have like $100mm of PF short term debt @ ~7% (matures in november, can be extended to June 2027, but at a price) so that's $7 million of interest. I'd assume $2 - $10 million/ year of grift / m&A to more or less take all your cash flow. I'd assume carry neutral. they'd have to really pillage ya to have negative. I doubt it takes 24 months. The market for multifamily is deep, liquid, and robust. As long as there's something not insanely wrong with the building (there is something wrong), I'd imagine they remarket it for a few months, get some stink bids that reflect whatever is wrong and it gets done in like 6-9 mo's. they marketed it in January, were under contract in May and then it just fell through. c) the remaining asset is 1,222 unit apartment building, Riverside Alexandria, 1971 vintage, bought in 2016 for $244 million, was under contract at $280 million ($230K/unit, low 7's cap). Three buildings on 28 acres. It generates about $20 million of NOI. but that may be a little lower now. Occupancy has been marginally falling. the DMV has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country and is more or less in recession. This is one of the last buildings to sell from a REIT where a PE firm picked the best assets to buy and this is one of the excluded assets. This is not a high quality asset and is in one of the least desireable markets in the country (the DC area) from a near term economic momentum perspective. that's why this had a 7 handle on it and why I'm being greedy and wanting to create it at a 9 handle. Like basically every apartment building i ever look at online, it gets terrible reviews. I almost put no stock in online reviews of apartments for investment purposes because if you beleived them, every single apartment building in the US is about to collapse, is infested with rats and cockroaches, and has numerous theives, drug dealers, etc. then you look at the data and it shows stable occupancy and rents...o @realassetsvalue has a good writeup with background as a well as a subsequent updated from May https://realassetsvalue.substack.com/p/elme-communities-nyseelme https://substack.com/profile/41080885-real-assets-value/note/c-258451179?r=ogi7p&utm_source=notes-share-action&utm_medium=web https://ir.elmecommunities.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/73/washington-reit-completes-the-previously-announced

It’s pretty much the only reason to close out the TRS I can think of. We will know in 6 weeks or so!

a) Why the termination? b) What would be the SG&A burn and how much value would be consumed, assuming it takes 24 months to sell the remaining asset? How much of deferred cap ex if any on the building? Any mortgage penalty? c) What is the remaining asset?

if it is the closing out of the TRS with the new debt proceeds isn’t that equivalent to exhanging callable floating rate debt at a 100% LTV of a floating Value with fixed rate debt for a fixed non callable 30 year term and a fixed proceed level. If so that would make sense to me.

Why? Thank you.

Complacency

LOL hilarious

The Trumpers, man… they’re like these little fish swimming upstream through a river of their own confusion. They keep staring at the rising tide of socialism like it just materialized out of the cosmic fog, completely forgetting they’re standing on the deck of the ship that’s taking on water. Their party feels like a monument to governance entropy, slowly dissolving into static. What did they think was going to happen? And Parsad, seriously, I respect you. Every time you disagree with me it’s like finding a hidden doorway in a room I thought I understood. You make me stop and inspect the wallpaper of reality. But I still think you’re underestimating the scale of what’s unfolding right now. The damage being done feels bigger than politics. It feels structural. Geological. Like cracks forming beneath the foundation while everyone’s arguing about the paint color. What really keeps me up is this looming fiscal singularity. Hyperinflation. Not as some abstract economic term floating around in a textbook, but as this enormous reality-bending force. People hear the words and shrug, but these things can reshape entire civilizations. They’re like tectonic plates moving beneath human consciousness. If people could actually feel the size of these forces, if they could see the shape of them from above, I think they’d be far more alarmed than they are. Instead I mostly see this weird blanket of apathy draped over everything. And does anyone here actually listen to Buffett? For fuck’s sake. The guy has been standing on the mountain for years waving warning flags about inflation, about speculation, about turning markets into casinos. He’s been repeating the same message over and over like some ancient economic oracle trapped in a time loop. But here we are. The brightest minds I can find online are locked in endless battles over trans people while simultaneously sketching elaborate diagrams explaining why Bitcoin is destined to become the sacred currency of the future. It’s like watching philosophers argue over shadows while the building they’re standing in slowly catches fire. I don’t know. Maybe it’s me. But it feels like the whole collective mind of the world has wandered into a funhouse and forgotten where the exit is. And Americans especially seem determined to stare into the mirrors until they mistake the reflections for reality.

1. We know we are buying it for less than half of liquidation which lowers the hurdle rate. 2. BIAL dividends and potentially fees from IDBI LPs might change this dynamic. 3. A lot of changes are happening in the macro. Is there anyway this changes? I think FFH is superior to FIH because of the market structure and leverage but FIH could do better in any given year. I own 7.5x more FFH than FIH but a year ago it was 11x.

The Trumpers are stupid. They like to act surprised about the rising tide of socialism, but fail to realize that their party is the definition of failing governance. What do they expect? I respect your views Parsad and your disagreements always give me pause. However, I also think you underestimate the damage currently being done by the Trump administration and just how bad the current situation really is. I fear a fiscal crisis and resulting hyperinflation. And I think that most people fail to grasp just how sizable these items actually are; that they have the power to change our entire reality. I think if people could understand, they may be more upset about what's happening instead of the apathy that I currently see. Does anyone here actually listen to Buffett? I mean fuck! This dude has been incessantly detailing the perils of runaway inflation and casino analogies for years now! But here we are, the smartest people I can seem to find on the internet, fighting over trans people and talking up our thesis on why Bitcoin is the future currency. I don't know. I guess I just feel like the world has lost its mind. I know Americans certainly have.

My personal opinion is there is a big difference between Fairfax and Fairfax India. 2 big ones. 1) Fairfax doesn’t need great equity investments to be a great investment. A mediocre equity performance there will lead to a more than satisfactory result ie 15%+ because of the float/investment leverage and locked in income streams. Fairfax India doesn’t have that. It’s an investment vehicle and its performance is directly correlated to its equity investments and at this point majority of it is linked to Bial. If you look 10 years out you have to trust their investment acumen much more than you have to do for Fairfax. 2) Fairfax can solve its own problems re low valuation by buying back its own shares. Fairfax India cannot do this as its cashflow poor ie its an investment vehicle. This is a major disadvantage. For Fairfax India you have to rely on a multiple rerate which again is most likely dependent on BIAL and its IPO and that will be a one time uplift. A third one is with Fairfax India you are always fighting against the headwind of currency depreciation. So structurally there are big differences. Of course I am rooting for Fairfax India but for me the investment case is much clearer for one than the other.

Repeatedly...position size is about 2.5X initial, all purchased in 2022 and 2023. Since late 2023, I've traded here and there when I thought it was beaten up by the market and then sold when I made a decent gain.

The discount to IV is probably over 50% now. Have you added to your position?

Looks like we could have two extremes with nothing in the middle. We need a third party that Thomas Paine would have called the Common Sense party.

ELME's largest and most important asset's PSA just got terminated, sending the stock down 22%. Assuming the other 3 sell (which are past inspection periods) and 5% t-costs? very rough here, using @realassetsvaluewriteup as an initial guide 1.80: 8% cap myeh, not much room for upside assuming sale @ some discount to prior contract 1.48 : 9% cap probably have nice upside 1.24: 10% cap back up truck, put as mcuh as you're comfy putting in one building, would have to have something really wrong with the building to not sell above here. any thoughts?

Good question and, honestly, I can't recall. Somewhat higher than BV which was 14 and change at the time. -Crip

Pleasure. Feedback welcome.