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It’s a bad analogy, because the oil in Norway was already there. There is no AI sitting somewhere above or below the ground waiting to be unlocked -it’s has to be build first. If you don’t build it, there will be nothing.

How do you know their products are great? What does this even mean in cosmetics? For me, there are only two kinds of products in cosmetics - those that sell and those that don’t. If they sell, they are great. I think there are more straightforward fish to fry in Korean Markets.

My suspicion is that they clear like bucket houses as of forgone times, which means sometimes they don’t.

Yeah, @Sinbius, Here at CofB&F, we are a bunch, a community, of individual DIY investors, that do our very best to steer clear of the costs related to the involvement of the institutional imperative, and we all know it's not in our power to save world from it. But we can actually still make a difference, a material difference for others than our selves, for some near and dear to us. Keeping the bulwark up, intact and running some times calls for, requires mentally venting to decompress, which is what I think Greg [ @Gregmal ] did here by starting this topic.

Supplemental HEICO data

I've improved this significantly by adding financial data. You can now easily layer-on fundamentals when evaluating another manager's portfolio This is Giverny for example. You can then click-through to see the fundamentals of the actual stocks he owns, i.e. full 3 statements for Google, Heico, etc. US Stock data was reasonably easy to extract but I'm slowly going through some companies/industries in categories and enriching the data. Starting with IT Services, Software, and Serial Acquirers. Improvig by the day.

Mohnish too....

Amore Pacific had a channel conflict issue. They built out their own proprietary wholesale channel selling Amore-Pacific-Only products. That channel was competitively disadvantaged (couldn't sell competing products) and that led to a huge channel mess. The products themselves are great and they invest LT behind their brands, etc. Combine that with a slowdown from Chinese consumers and trends, etc. and you have bad operating margins.

@Red Lion - I don't like lax customer service and accounting... it's a recipe for fraud and counterparty risk.

https://share.google/lLA1kAKXRiewU3Jfi They are already doing it. I think the harder part is clearing. Some of these new entrants, I think there are something like 19 of them in the pipeline I'll still have to find that clearing House to agree gre to clear the trades.

AI infrastructure as a resource could be compared to oil - do you think Norway's wealth fund is a similarly bad economic idea?

Newsom is proposing that “every American owns a stake in the future being built by AI through a national public equity fund that takes a major stake in the new economy.” https://gavinnewsom.substack.com/p/its-time-for-a-national-billionaires. Sanders suggests a much more aggressive plan that's unlikely to gain traction. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/01/opinion/artificial-intelligence-bernie-sanders.html. As we know, over the past decade or so, the Republicans have moved away from supporting relatively free markets and have embraced protectionism, pushing the Fed to lower rates, and taking equity stakes in companies that the administration deems vital to the national interest. At the same time, the Democrats, far from a free-market party to begin with, have moved further to the left on economic issues (see the recent NY primary winners). I don’t think proposals like Newsom’s will play well with primary voters who don’t want the government picking winners and losers or subsidizing AI, and I hope other Democratic candidates don’t pick up on this. On the other hand, I am concerned that (in my view) bad economic ideas will proliferate in times like these, particularly once primary season gets underway and if the AI mania is still in full swing by then.

Don’t you hold cash/t-bills? Or am I mistaking you with another poster?

I’ve got about $750 sitting in kalshi, and there’s an error every time I try to withdraw my funds. Annoying. And a red flag.

Is there anything that prevents CME to get into prediction markets? I think they have the infrastructure to offer them but I am not sure if they are allowed to.

OTCM pays a special dividend every year too (I have a starter position). It's not quite an exchange, but fills a niche between the pink sheets and the exchanges. There is not much they can use capital for so every year they pay a variable special dividend in addition to regular dividend that you see in the stock quote. CME Is a great company but until last year I was not allowed to own it because I worked for their regulator. At this price it's starting to look interesting again. It's a weird time because all these BS companies are filing to become prediction markets are registering as DCMs which is the same category as CME. So if sports betting is declared a legal and those losers have a license they might try to compete with CME or whenever a new products come around. I don't think their legacy business is in danger at all.

Blake - In 1977, Microsoft had $380K in revenue and 9 employees. Apple innovated with the Apple 2 computer. In 1978 my parents overpaid for the house we grew up in with a 9.75% mortgage rate. All survived inflation. Never does Buffett say bet against the US. Pockets of the market, economy and politics will always be scary but stay the course and you will come out for the better. Grantham, Katsenelson (financial marketers) were saying in 2022 (when inflation first became a concern) that markets could not possible grow more after the first rebound (of course they were also pushing further market disasters at the bottom). Look at earnings on the SP since (not just market returns)

I have not watched CNBC for years, after years of watching it. From occasional clips I see - looks like somewhat balanced with Kernan being conservative and Sorkin plenty left. I'll take your word for it.

You do not have to renounce your Canadian citizenship if you become US citizen. Abel has very likely acquired dual citizenship which imo is an upgrade if anything. The reason he has done so most likely is that recent changes in how the current administration handles immigration law has resulted in a severe downgrade of the US person status. The Trump administration for example has kicked out US persons (Green card holders) for very minor infarctions of law (like possession weed from years back ) out of the country etc. I have done likewise as I saw these changes coming before the election as Germany made the dual citizenship way easier just early in 2024. Immigration USCIS now a mess since everything that was done back then in 2-3 month takes now more 6-12 month to process. At least that is people who are now going through the same process I went through tell me.

How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor: Warren Buffett, May 1977 I actually have the original Fortune issue sitting on my shelf. I've probably read it 10 or 20 times.

Sounds bullish for stocks tbh lol

It feels almost obvious to me, and it makes me feel crazy that seemingly no one else sees it. Maybe I am.

I think economic calamity is certain. I believe we will soon see the greatest financial crisis in human history: frozen credit, collapsing asset markets, desperate money printing in order to save us from it, and finally extreme inflation as that newly created money ultimately reaches the real economy. I often fear a complete currency collapse. Our country is running historic deficits during full employment. Our last two recessions both nearly led to economic collapse. We have an erratic leader, a broken Congress, and an apathetic public that has completely checked out. Our currency sits at the center of the global financial system. And never before in history have we seen trade imbalances of the size they are today. And the worst part is that no one cares. We're all just sitting here waiting to see how far faith alone can take us. But maybe Trump will save us. He likes to paint himself as a god and has convinced the MAGA crowd that his record of failure will somehow lead to solving our greatest problems. I am doubtful.

The only thing more comically wrong then his bear/short calls are his long calls. Bro was a China bull in 2020/2021

We have no idea what crude will price at tomorrow, and the further out tomorrow is, the worse it gets. What somebody will pay today for a physical barrel X months out ... is not what the spot price will be X months out. The paper market also prices off of NYMEX, whereas the physical market prices off of specific grades (WTI, etc.) delivered at X (Cushing, etc.); ie: not all oil is the same. Most would argue that < USD 70 is temporary, and primarily for political consumption (US midterms). It assumes that nations do not use the trapped crude leaving the SOH to refill their SPR's, incremental Gulf production able to offset declining Russian exports (Ukraine related), and China not resuming 'normal' purchasing. To sustain it, a lot of stars have to align, and the VZ earthquakes will be disrupting heavy oil supply. At current prices, warrants are temporarily both cheap, and illiquid ...... opportunity. If you have the risk tolerance, and are comfortable with ambiguity, it may be worth your while. Disclosure: We have a February 'sell BTC/Buy o/g' pair trade, that we hope to unwind into Q2 earnings. The BTC leg highly likely to close out at a material gain; we hope to do similarly with the o/g position. All goes well, our o/g weighting goes down significantly, and is entirely funded via house money. Good luck. SD