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"The gains from CDS aren't unlimited whereas the losses from equity hedges are unlimited, right?" @Buffett_Groupie, I have added this to my article. I think it explains the assymetic difference in the CDS position and the equity hedge position. Thank you!

I am still very bullish - i just maintain the possibility that I am wrong so i took half the position off. And honestly i couldnt sleep well with the position sizing. At 5% i am more comfortable.

My brothers from Team Melli representing with pride at the World Cup — a hard-fought 1-1 draw that showed real character. Respect to the team for staying focused and delivering a solid result despite the disappointing treatment and unnecessary obstacles from the host. - very low class! Huge respect to the fans who represented with class and remembered the 168 martyrs of the Minab school tragedy! https://x.com/ShaykhSulaiman/status/2066716577274188284/video/1?s=46

My brothers from Team Melli representing with pride at the World Cup — a hard-fought 1-1 draw that showed real character. Respect to the team for staying focused and delivering a solid result despite the disappointing treatment and unnecessary obstacles from the host. - very low class. Huge respect to the fans who represented with class and remembered the 168 martyrs of the Minab school tragedy! https://x.com/ShaykhSulaiman/status/2066716577274188284/video/1?s=46

Not just that but it's an asymmetric bet. Most one can gain is the stock price, the downside unlimited. Also the adage the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent comes into play. Stocks can stay irrationally priced for a very very long time. Especially in these times of inflated markets, fast moving technologies and central banks debasing currencies and pumping liquidity, it's quite simply a fools errand.

The old lady part was a joke. Yes aware they’re the same age but she looks so much older and that’s fine.

And still they somehow managed to only settle so far for an MOU and future negotiations. It's neither a win, nor loss...and considering all of the above, it's astounding that this isn't a huge loss for Trump. The only thing...the ONLY thing...that will make this at all a win for Trump will be to get nuclear material out of Iran's hands. Period! You can spin it any way you want...but Ourkid8 can gloat all the way to the Iranian government-controlled bank with this reparation and sanction money, unless nuclear weapons are 100% out of Iran's hands. Otherwise, this was a completely ego-driven, waste of time, money and life exercise to try and prove Obama's deal wasn't good! It would be a bigger loss than the Spurs 29 point collapse to the Knicks! Cheers!

Did not know that. Cheers!

US was also lucky to have a significant SPR otherwise it could have gotten ugly. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is the world's largest emergency supply of crude oil, managed by the Department of Energy. As of mid-2026, SPR stocks are hovering near 42-year lows at approximately 340 million barrels (before the war it was at 413), following significant releases to stabilize energy markets during recent geopolitical events.

I don’t think they appreciated how the market structure was changing. Absolute return investors were losing their mandates to relative return and quality (at ant price) investors. Mean reversion used to work because there were enough absolute return investors to make it work but the value factor was losing relevancy. It’s easy to judge in hindsight but contemporaneously investors loved it. Fairfax had a higher multiple at many points throughout that period than it does now. It’s a much better company now with structurally higher ROE but the value factor has never mattered less.

I think there's still room to go higher, but it's less easy money at this share price.

I like Greg, Reds, and Pupil's comments on this subject. The size of every investment for me is determined by how I will feel and respond given a 50 percent or more decline in price quote...on a situation or news I may be uncomfortable with.

I recall you were quite bullish at these prices, did you change your mind?

Started a position in INTU. Also sold a couple of OTM INTU puts. Added to FOUR.

Closed out my position in CROX. This ended up being a nicely profitable trade, but I realized that branded retail is not my game.

That's true but I also think there is truth to the fact that the CDS success made them think there is alpha while reducing downside risk in taking big macro positioning bets (I think @Viking's great post about the lost decade alludes to that too). You can find great single stock investments even when the market is overvalued as a whole, as they have done recently. You don't need to short to reduce risk, just focus on finding undervalued securities. The painful costly lesson of shorting seems to have made Prem and team come to the right conclusion i.e don't short. It's just a very hard game to play and the odds are against you.

They will likely never be in the position they were then again given the strength of the company now.

Ayatollah dead Half the IRGC leaders dead Air defenses destroyed Air Force destroyed Navy destroyed Nuclear facilities destroyed Arms manufacturing destroyed Currency worthless Inflation 100%+ Iran is in fine shape

I would have put it the other way. Take an obviously stupid outcome and find a squiggly line to connect dots back to why this own-goal is actually a good thing and Trump intended that outcome even if its worse than before the action was taken.

Probably should ask a genius like Paul Krugman. https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/oil-prices-could-easily-go-much-higher

Isn’t it obvious now that the formula here for most is basically (take current event), squiggle and connect somewhat stretched dots and lines to eventually culminate in an ever predictable (Trump so stupid) outcome….almost every single time.

This is the crux of it. Shorting equities as a long term strategy can be fatal. And I’m pretty sure it won’t happen again at Fairfax.

Ha yeah I think Lady Camilla is maybe more of a freak. Didn’t he write her that he wished he could be her unmentionable? Macron is a real head scratcher but I think he had an affair with her when he was a teen and she was his teacher.

Ha yeah I think Lady Camilla is maybe more of a freak. Didn’t he write her that he wished he could be her unmentionable? Macron is a real head scratcher but I think he had an affair with her when he was a teen and she was his teacher.

Then you must really respect King Charles! He traded in Lady Di for Lady Camilla and stayed with her when he became King. Although those Royals, they just keep their mistresses on the side generally. Cheers!