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Forum member's asset allocation


arbitragr

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I love IBKR, but unfortunately I don't do enough trading to warrant the monthly fees.  Not only do they have the lowest costs for margin, they usually pay the highest interest rates on deposits.  And they have access to nearly every exchange and market.  By far the best.

 

I just disabled the real-time market feeds.  I get my real-time data from google or my other brokerage account, and I generally only place limit orders anyway, so that's close enough.  Thus I have an account at IBKR with no regular fees at all.

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Guest kawikaho

Well, here's my list of must owns for the next 5-7 years:

 

BRK-B, FFH, MSFT (at 20, sell at 32), BAC, GS (sell at 400), C (yep, Citigroup, I think will eventually come out of this in 20 years and be a 10 bagger).

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  • 2 weeks later...

Which ones?  I've been looking at NRF for quite some time.

 

Well ... since you asked (I'm not pumping  :D)

I'm looking for good quality assets in prime locations where I think the vacancy & cap rates are topping out. I'm not looking for real estate financing/debt businesses, so NRF isn't something I'd be interested. Just really good quality class A office or retail, with long term leases and not too much debt (relatively speaking), and also where the demand/supply fundamentals are still in tact or will recover.

 

New York, despite its short term problems, will always be a prime place for doing business. So SL Green (SLG) looks good, to me at least - built a position last 1-2 weeks or so ($20-$25).

They own good quality buildings around Grand Central, Times Square, Park/Fifth Ave and the Rockefeller Centre - those properties aren't going to fall by 50% - the market is pricing in 50% or so reductions.

Also places like Australia, and Canada, whose financial sectors haven't been hit as hard by the GFC, with lower unemployment rates, less overbuilding/inventory/higher absorbtion rates and stronger economic growth tied to commodities. So I've been buying some REITS that are based around the major cities there.

 

In general we're in a deleveraging environment, so good to check if they don't have any wholesale funding problems down the road, and also if they have debt covenants that may require them to raise equity (thus dilution ... don't get screwed!).

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yudeng, you've got me thinking about the long LEAP, short short-term call strategy.

 

I agree with using puts instead of shorting stock. If it expires and you still believe you're right, just buy puts again. No dividends to pay out, etc.

 

I've been reading John Paulson's fund reports and I'm getting interested in the long/short strategy to hedge my bets.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Guest kawikaho

Good call on SLG.  Started taking a look at it and I like what I see.  I might have to enter into a small position if it gets back to the 20's.

 

Which ones?  I've been looking at NRF for quite some time.

 

Well ... since you asked (I'm not pumping  :D)

I'm looking for good quality assets in prime locations where I think the vacancy & cap rates are topping out. I'm not looking for real estate financing/debt businesses, so NRF isn't something I'd be interested. Just really good quality class A office or retail, with long term leases and not too much debt (relatively speaking), and also where the demand/supply fundamentals are still in tact or will recover.

 

New York, despite its short term problems, will always be a prime place for doing business. So SL Green (SLG) looks good, to me at least - built a position last 1-2 weeks or so ($20-$25).

They own good quality buildings around Grand Central, Times Square, Park/Fifth Ave and the Rockefeller Centre - those properties aren't going to fall by 50% - the market is pricing in 50% or so reductions.

Also places like Australia, and Canada, whose financial sectors haven't been hit as hard by the GFC, with lower unemployment rates, less overbuilding/inventory/higher absorbtion rates and stronger economic growth tied to commodities. So I've been buying some REITS that are based around the major cities there.

 

In general we're in a deleveraging environment, so good to check if they don't have any wholesale funding problems down the road, and also if they have debt covenants that may require them to raise equity (thus dilution ... don't get screwed!).

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Good call on SLG.  Started taking a look at it and I like what I see.  I might have to enter into a small position if it gets back to the 20's.

 

 

Didn't expect it to run up so quickly, given all the negative press surrounding CRE.

Should hit at least 35 IMO, and then we'll see what happens.

 

SLG vs. S&P - July 20th to present:

 

http://i163.photobucket.com/albums/t314/ripleyx/Finance/SLGvsSP.jpg

 

 

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A few of you scare me with all that cash.  No one knows when and by how much, but we are certain to have above average inflation.  The purchasing power of your cash holdings will effectively be taxed by an amount equal to the difference between the interest rate on cash and the inflation rate.

 

You are correct to worry about elevated inflation Mpauls, but I don't think most of them will hold cash for any prolonged period where the value of their dollar will erode significantly.  They are mostly just biding their time waiting for the next fat pitch.  Cheers!

 

My personal asset allocation approx. 40% cash its gone up in the last 6 weeks

                                                  10% FFH          5% RSI.un

                                                  15% a little of this and that

                                                  10% ORH

                                                  15% YLO.un

                                                    5% VLN

The only thing that is appreciating right now are commodities and securities in the real world stuff is getting cheaper so the return on cash is not as bleak as one may think and yes I am waiting for some more fat pitches.

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  • 1 month later...

For those of you interested in oil and gas... you might want to take a look at ATP Oil and Gas Corp (ATPG).  They have just announced capital raises to shore up their balance sheet.  They have some really good presentations on their website explaining the company.

 

Disclaimer:  Of course I own shares.

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25% OAKBX (Oakmark Equity and Income Fund)

15% Walmart

60% Cash (but actively looking for long-term opportunities, such as FFH if it pulls back to $300 range).

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50% notional deep-in-the-money FFH calls (ties up 25% of my cash)

50% TIPS (10 yr Treasury Inflation Protected Securities maturing July 2019)

50% WFC naked puts, 2011 $30 strike

25% cash

 

The TIPS are great -- my principle rises with inflation, can't go below the original issue principle with deflation, and need barely any margin backing.  And there is a little interest income that ought to defray the tax due on the CPI adjustment gains.

 

1)  I am hedged against a pullback to $23 in WFC

2)  I don't need the WFC price to rise more than like 5% in order to grab 30% gain

3)  I have a decent upside potential with FFH calls

4)  I am 50% hedged against inflation with the TIPS (hopefully HWIC will one day hedge the other half via FFH).

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20%(notional) naked put KHD at 7.5$ and 10$ april 2010

20% Hanfeng

10% ORH.pr.a ( i think the end is near for this one as FFH should redeem it)

20%(notional) naked put on WFC at 20$ , april 2010

20%(notional) naked put on MFC at 17.5$, january 2010

25% BCE + covered call

20% cash

10% MFC

5% SFK

10% others

 

wish to convert BCE and cash into other investment ideas but can't find anything

 

 

 

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geez ... i've never gone deep ... what sort of delta are those deep ffh calls on?  ???

it's long term i presume; 2011/2012?

 

A quarter of them are $125 and $140 strike Jan 2010.  Then I have 2011 calls with strikes of $200 and $210.

 

There are no 2012 available.

 

My 25% cash position is there for taking delivery, or buying more calls if I need to (I will need to if it gets really cheap again). 

 

I don't want to bet against inflation, don't want to bet against a market pullback.  So I have 50% hedged for inflation and 50% hedged for a market pullback.  At $23 WFC is only 1.27x book -- that's quite silly if we can put the $7.80 market bottom out of our minds.

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