Josh4580

Barrons failed to deliver to me twice already this year.

Packer thank you. I did very well with this stock while my value plays like MWE.TO and FTP.TO are dragging me a bit. Check out my thread on Resverlogix http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/rvx-to-resverologix/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-24/roche-holding-agrees-to-buy-intermune-for-8-3-billion.html?cmpid=yhoo Roche Holding Agrees to Buy InterMune for $8.3 Billion Olmstead, I think my ITMN pick fit the profile you were looking for. I posted the pick on February 06, 2014 and the stock closed at $11.32 Roche is purchasing them for $74. 653% gain in 6 months. What stock did you end up picking for the contest?

Just know that growth and value are joined at the hip

Kraven, I think I won this contest. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=feye&insttype=&freq=7&show=&time=3 any reward? Yes, you get to tell your friends you bought FEYE at 30 as opposed to 97 three months ago. Actually FEYE wasn't a horrible buy at $97 if you do the math. You take 2013's Free Cash Flow of -$127 million and multiply by -1 to get owners earnings of $127 million. $97 times 145 million shares gets you $14 billion market cap. So 110x times true owners free cash flow for a company whose comps trade at 200-250x FCF.

Kraven, I think I won this contest. http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=feye&insttype=&freq=7&show=&time=3 any reward?

FireEye, Inc FEYE

Dcollon, this was a great paper by Montier. I believe everything he talks about in regards to the market valuation. We are historically significantly overvalued on all major metrics that have a strong correlation with future returns for the S&P 500. However, I am still finding cheap stocks to buy such as HRTPY & AWLCF. I am keeping a large % of my money in cash and bonds however.

Olmstead, I hope you picked ITMN and won the contest. Up a modest 170% today. I actually bought more in the am. I think it gets bought out for much higher.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/intermune-reports-phase-3-ascend-120000665.html "A 10% decline in FVC in an individual IPF patient is considered clinically meaningful and strongly predicts mortality. At Week 52, 16.5% of patients in the pirfenidone group experienced an FVC decline of 10% or more or death, compared with 31.8% in the placebo group, representing a 47.9% reduction in the proportion of patients who experienced a meaningful change in FVC or death. Additionally, at Week 52 the data demonstrated that 22.7% of patients in the pirfenidone group experienced no decline in FVC, compared with 9.7% in the placebo group, representing a 132.5% increase in the proportion of patients whose FVC did not decrease between Baseline and Week 52." Made this a 9% position and happy this morning.

It looks like most of the upside is already baked in. They have been really flying high lately. For ITMN: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-19/intermune-sale-looms-as-lung-drug-nears-fda-nod-real-m-a.html basically their drug Esbriet is approved in the EU and Canada. They have done 2 phase III studies already but the FDA made them do another one after rejecting approval in 2010. The outside FDA advisory Panel actually recommended they approve the drug and they went against that. Wall Street analysts are pegging chances of approval at 50-80%. "The company’s revenue may more than double this year and next to about $130 million in 2014, analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg show." "The pressure will be on the FDA to clear the drug because no other treatments have been approved specifically for IPF in the U.S. yet, said Liisa Bayko, an analyst for JMP in San Francisco. At least 132,000 Americans have the disease and 40,000 die from it each year, according to the Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation." The stock price is down from over $18 on this news: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-31/intermune-sinks-on-competition-from-boehringer-lung-drug.html However, I find that these stocks always run up before Phase III study results which are coming out in Q2.

Intermune ITMN

So if I have a 10m Roth IRA with a cost basis of 300k, she would get 5m in a 50/50 split. But that 5m is probably 150k cost basis, and 4.85m "gains". So the government would tax that gain as a taxable withdrawal.... and at 50% tax rate in California, it's probably something like 2.425m in taxes to be paid... so then the courts would likely take more of my assets to help her settle the tax bill. All this despite the tax bill supposedly already having been settled at time of Roth conversion. It's a double tax. So just wait to get married until after age 59.5. That is my plan :)

I switched from a Samsung S4 to a Q10. The phone is great but there really are no apps available, not even a Chase app. Everything else I pretty much like. The browser is a bit slow. I hated the Samsung S4. The screen was so big you had to use two hands. I couldnt type in english at all, even using Swipe. The apps would always freeze and Android has weird boxes that show up that have no use at all. I think andriod is horrible and clunky. Bbry needs to start investing more heavily in app development asap.

Capstead Mortgage's (CMO) portfolio is 100% in adjustible rate mortgages. Could be a much safer play than NLY.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/harvest-natural-resources-provides-operational-101300509.html Harvest Natural Resources Provides an Operational Update Financial Reporting and Control Issues During the December 31, 2012 year end audit process, the following material weaknesses were identified. Due to these weaknesses, the following errors were identified and adjustments will be made in current and previous SEC filings: •In certain areas, the Company did not maintain a sufficient complement of resources with an appropriate level of accounting knowledge, experience and training commensurate with our financial reporting requirements. •The Company did not maintain effective internal control over the accuracy, valuation and application of generally accepted accounting principles related to the capitalization, classification and impairment of certain costs related to oil and gas properties. •The Company did not maintain effective controls to provide reasonable assurance that journal entries were appropriately recorded or that they were properly reviewed for validity, accuracy and completeness. •The Company did not maintain effective controls over the preparation and review of the statement of cash flows. •The Company did not maintain effective controls over significant and complex debt and equity transactions. In connection with the preparation of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2012, the Company concluded that there were errors in previously filed financial statements. These errors are outlined below: •Certain warrants issued in 2010 in connection with our $60 million term loan facility (the "Warrants") were improperly valued at inception and improperly classified as equity instruments rather than liability instruments. As a result of the improper classification of the Warrants, the debt discount and associated interest expense related to the amortization of the debt discount was understated for all periods in which the associated debt was outstanding. Additionally, the consolidated statement of operations and comprehensive income (loss) for each reporting period was misstated by the omission of the changes in fair value of the Warrants as a liability instrument. •As a result of the errors related to the Warrants described above, loss on extinguishment of debt was understated for the year ended December 31, 2011 and the quarters ended June 30, 2011, September 30, 2011 and December 31, 2011. •Certain exploration overhead was incorrectly capitalized to unproved properties, which under the successful efforts method of accounting should have been expensed, and certain leasehold maintenance and other costs were improperly capitalized to oil and gas properties, which under the successful efforts method of accounting should have been expensed. •In addition, advances to equity affiliate were improperly classified as an operating activity rather than an investing activity and certain costs were improperly classified as an investing activity rather than an operating activity on the consolidated statement of cash flows. •Additionally, an error was identified in the calculation of earnings (loss) per diluted share for the year ended December 31, 2011 and the quarterly period ended June 30, 2011. •The Company will also correct the financial statements for previously identified immaterial errors and an income statement reclassification between exploration expense and impairment of oil and gas properties for the year ended December 31, 2011 and the quarterly period ended September 30, 2011. •An additional error was identified related to the improper expensing of costs associated with debt conversions that should have been recorded to equity for the quarters ended March 31, 2012 and September 30, 2012. Any adjustments made related to the above issues will have a non-cash impact to the Company. The Company is also evaluating the permanent reinvestment assertion related to certain tax matters. Many of these corrections are period to period adjustments and will have a non-cash impact to the Company. The Company intends to file amendments to its quarterly reports on Form 10-Q/A for each fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2012, June 30, 2012 and September 30, 2012, which will also include amendments to the quarters ended March 31, 2011, June 30, 2011, and September 30, 2011. The Company intends to restate its financial statements for the Restated Periods in the 2012 Form 10-K which the Company currently expects to file with the Securities and Exchange Commission as soon as reasonably practicable to correct the accounting treatment for the items discussed above. On an absolute dollar basis, none of the adjustments made to date are material. However, because our net income (loss) in some periods was close to a breakeven point, on a quantitative basis as a percentage of net income (loss), the adjustments are considered to be material. Going Concern The Company's financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2012 have been prepared under the assumption that Harvest will continue as a going concern. Our audit report will include an explanatory paragraph expressing substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern. It seems that these are all non-cash issues and not material to the company or net income If so, there should still be some decent value here given Pertima wanted to buy the Petrodelta assets for $750 million. Any thoughts?

I wouldn't touch these at $90. I saw the value of bitcoin drop 80% in a few days last year. How does anyone feel about the very limited supply of bitcoins? See chart below: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Total_bitcoins_over_time.png

And, posting on cornerofberkshireandfairfax... I kinda like that thought What I'd like to see is Eric become a centimillionare over the next few years, and have him continue to post on here. Then every time someone like Harry Long comes on here and tells us how we are anchored to our old ideas, all we have to do is show a picture of Eric sitting in his Netjets plane! ;D Cheers! I dont know. I hear Harry's systematic systemic systems are running at 89% annualized right now!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-30/bond-investor-gundlach-buys-stocks-sees-kaboom-ahead.html "Bond Investor Gundlach Buys Stocks, Sees 'Kaboom' Ahead" Covers so many topics and great quotes inside The following is on his stolen artwork: Hands-off, though, isn’t normally the first description that comes to mind when discussing Gundlach. In mid-September, thieves robbed the money manager’s Santa Monica home in a quiet residential neighborhood, taking more than $10 million in artworks as well as his red 2010 Porsche Carrera 4S, wine and watches. The robbers also snatched two works by Gundlach’s late grandmother, Helen Fuchs, who was an amateur painter. The money manager first offered $200,000 for tips leading to the recovery of his art and days later boosted the reward to $1.7 million. Santa Monica Police Department Sergeant Richard Lewis says the large sum of money was key to cracking the case, which the Federal Bureau of Investigation assisted on. In late September, two suspects were arrested and all of the stolen art was recovered. The cerebral Gundlach also gave investigators a tip for solving the crime. He says that while he was at home in his family room, it dawned on him that thieves would do a Google search using his grandmother’s name to find out more about the paintings and how much they might be worth. Gundlach told the authorities that they should check the Internet to see who might have googled the name Helen Fuchs. He says exactly two such searches were executed: one by him and one by the thieves. Gundlach says his Internet idea impressed investigators. “The FBI,” he says, “thought it was brilliant.”

Looks like Shai Agassi is out as CEO of Better Place...any thoughts? http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444004704578032793162512254.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection CEO of Electric-Car Network Better Place Steps Down

Good call Moore capital. Looks like the company has a net cash position of $1.5 billion and a market cap of $2.3 billion. So the market is valuing Zynga's operating business at $800 million. http://investor.zynga.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=695419 "Net loss for the second quarter of 2012 included $95.5 million of stock-based expense compared to $33.1 million of stock-based expense included in the second quarter of 2011." "Stock-based expense is projected to be in the range of $410 million to $430 million." "Free cash flow was ($204.4) million for the second quarter of 2012 as reported or $29.3 million excluding the purchase of the company's headquarters, compared to ($0.4) million for the second quarter of 2011." "Capital expenditures are projected to be in the range of $370 million to $380 million, which includes the purchase of our corporate headquarters building in April 2012. " "Non-GAAP weighted-average diluted shares outstanding are projected to be approximately 845 million shares in the fourth quarter of 2012" -up from 736 million currently "Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be in the range of $180 million to $250 million." -Still trading at 12.8-9.2X Adjusted EBITDA What a disaster company

looks pretty shady to me. Not worth it to ruin your reputation for a few thousand dollars. Anyone agree?

Links to the other two parts of Stumpf's interview http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000073900 Re-Thinking 'Too Big to Fail' http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000073921 Wells Fargo's Stumpf on the Volcker Rule

"A rising tide lifts all yachts" What a great WEB quote!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204795304577223764266276288.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories I dont see how Falcone can come back from a likely complete loss of a 65% position. Any thoughts?