cubsfan Posted May 17, 2014 Posted May 17, 2014 Talking my blog. http://variantperceptions.wordpress.com/2010/11/20/david-tepper-on-investing-under-uncertainty-theory/ http://variantperceptions.wordpress.com/2010/11/20/david-tepper-on-investing-under-uncertainty-practice/ Plan - that is terrific stuff...great contribution to the board.
ERICOPOLY Posted May 17, 2014 Posted May 17, 2014 Didn't he sell out of BofA in late 2011 when Munger/Buffett/RestofUs were buying? Has he ever explained why he did that?
cubsfan Posted May 17, 2014 Posted May 17, 2014 Didn't he sell out of BofA in late 2011 when Munger/Buffett/RestofUs were buying? Has he ever explained why he did that? A lot of that is covered in Plan's post - a snippet" Tepper was able to buy Bank of America preferred shares at just twelve cents on the dollar and Citigroup bonds at just nineteen cents. As those stocks rallied by the end of 2009, Appaloosa raked in the billions. I think most of his BAC was gone by mid-2011: http://www.dataroma.com/m/hist/p_hist.php?f=AM
ERICOPOLY Posted May 17, 2014 Posted May 17, 2014 Didn't he sell out of BofA in late 2011 when Munger/Buffett/RestofUs were buying? Has he ever explained why he did that? A lot of that is covered in Plan's post - a snippet" Tepper was able to buy Bank of America preferred shares at just twelve cents on the dollar and Citigroup bonds at just nineteen cents. As those stocks rallied by the end of 2009, Appaloosa raked in the billions. I think most of his BAC was gone by mid-2011: http://www.dataroma.com/m/hist/p_hist.php?f=AM He sold out of it completely in Q4 2011. During the fear. It wasn't exactly the kind of "getting greedy when others were fearful" behavior as depicted in the blog. So I wonder if he sold it and bought a European bank instead, or what. Did he just get scared? I've wondered about it since then. It was also the quarter when Ray Dalio's fund bought BAC common. Nygren I think also sold out of it during that time (he must have bought it back higher since then).
cubsfan Posted May 17, 2014 Posted May 17, 2014 Didn't he sell out of BofA in late 2011 when Munger/Buffett/RestofUs were buying? Has he ever explained why he did that? Here is his history of the common - remainder sold in Dec 2013: http://www.gurufocus.com/stock/BAC Not sure about the bonds/preferreds.
Guest Posted May 17, 2014 Posted May 17, 2014 Nygren I think also sold out of it during that time (he must have bought it back higher since then). I bet he was having fears of another Wamu situation. He got crushed on that one.
cubsfan Posted May 17, 2014 Posted May 17, 2014 Actually - this is the correct table from GuruFocus of Tepper's BAC trades: NYSE:BAC ($14.51) - David Tepper Holding History No. of Shares at Quarter Ends NYSE:BAC Quarterly Average Price ($) Also see: Holding History of other gurus Quarterly Buys and Sells in the Last 5 Years: Period Bought/Sold (Sh.) Qtr. End Shares Avrg. Price Gain (%) 2009Q2 -701,799 46,848,201 $10.89 33.2% 2009Q3 -12,972,100 33,876,101 $15.54 -6.6% 2009Q4 -1,624,000 32,252,101 $15.96 -9.1% 2010Q1 -1,909,502 30,342,599 $16.23 -10.6% 2010Q2 -2,992,900 27,349,699 $16.73 -13.3% 2010Q3 -4,876,000 22,473,699 $13.67 6.1% 2010Q4 +2,593,845 25,067,544 $12.24 18.5% 2011Q1 -7,851,695 17,215,849 $14.21 2.1% 2011Q2 -7,215,849 10,000,000 $11.86 22.3% 2011Q3 -10,000,000 0 $8.21 76.7% 2012Q1 +7,456,408 7,456,408 $7.93 83% 2012Q2 -3,599,400 3,857,008 $7.92 83.2% 2012Q3 -1,100,000 2,757,008 $8.05 80.2% 2012Q4 -274,000 2,483,008 $9.9 46.6% 2013Q2 +3,861,599 6,344,607 $12.75 13.8% 2013Q3 -4,125,000 2,219,607 $14.27 1.7% 2013Q4 -2,219,607 0 $14.83 -2.2% 2014Q1 0 0 $16.82 -13.7% Current Price: $14.51
ERICOPOLY Posted May 17, 2014 Posted May 17, 2014 2011Q3 -10,000,000 0 $8.21 76.7% 2012Q1 +7,456,408 7,456,408 $7.93 83% That was the trade I remember (got the quarter wrong). He sold the last of it during that panic -- must have been August or September 2011 when Buffett was working out the arrangement for the warrants.
bmichaud Posted May 17, 2014 Posted May 17, 2014 Here's a November 2007 interview with Tepper. On page 6 he talks discusses his cash position and nervousness about the market. Perhaps he wasn't "deified" enough back then to believe he could manipulate a $10T market himself, and he truly thought the market could go down. Perhaps now he is deified enough to believe he can manipulate a $10T market himself, and truly believes the market will go UP but wants to talk it down to get back in....172406928-David-Tepper-s-2007-Presentation-at-Carnegie-Mellon.pdf
cubsfan Posted May 17, 2014 Posted May 17, 2014 Here's a November 2007 interview with Tepper. On page 6 he talks discusses his cash position and nervousness about the market. Perhaps he wasn't "deified" enough back then to believe he could manipulate a $10T market himself, and he truly thought the market could go down. Perhaps now he is deified enough to believe he can manipulate a $10T market himself, and truly believes the market will go UP but wants to talk it down to get back in.... Wow - I'm really surprised you think he's trying to manipulate markets. I personally feel he says what he thinks and calls it exactly like he sees it. Kinda of a strong accusation you are making.
bmichaud Posted May 17, 2014 Posted May 17, 2014 I was being sarcastic :) The general vibe from those responding to his comments is that he is trying to talk to market down in order to buy. I don't believe that's the case.
peter1234 Posted May 18, 2014 Posted May 18, 2014 Does anyone have an idea of what kind of holding period Tepper has? He strikes me as a person like Soros that turns on a dime and the 13Fs are just like random snapshots in time. Am I totally off here? :)
augustabound Posted May 18, 2014 Posted May 18, 2014 Does anyone have an idea of what kind of holding period Tepper has? He strikes me as a person like Soros that turns on a dime and the 13Fs are just like random snapshots in time. Am I totally off here? :) When Robert Rodriquez commented he kept his own list of the top 5 holdings in the FPA fund and they significantly outperforming the fund itself, I was curious if the same applied to Tepper, so I tried to backtest it. (I didn't find anything concrete since many have been a part of M&A that I couldn't find old quotes for the periods he held) From that I could see his top positions changed fairly regularly. So yes, he changed his positions quite a bit but the difference between him and Soros is the concentration. Tepper seems to typically hold about 20-30 stocks. IIRC, Soros is an index, a very successful index. ;D
moody202 Posted May 18, 2014 Posted May 18, 2014 So yes, he changed his positions quite a bit but the difference between him and Soros is the concentration. Tepper seems to typically hold about 20-30 stocks. IIRC, Soros is an index, a very successful index. ;D I see 58 holdings in Tepper's latest filing! http://whalewisdom.com/filer/appaloosa-management-lp
PatientCheetah Posted May 18, 2014 Posted May 18, 2014 http://www.insidermonkey.com/hedge-fund/appaloosa+management+lp/24/#/ffp=2013-12-31&fot=6&fso=1&pfp=2013-12-31 Very good site tracking changes
PJM Posted June 6, 2014 Posted June 6, 2014 Mr.Tepper says that his fears have been alleviated http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/06/05/david-tepper-my-fears-have-been-alleviated/
obtuse_investor Posted June 6, 2014 Posted June 6, 2014 I am considering launching a sentiment tracking ETF that will track Tepper's nervousness. Blackrock is interested.
Steve Posted June 6, 2014 Posted June 6, 2014 They've done a study.... you know, and 60% of the time he is right ... all the time. -Steve
Liberty Posted September 4, 2014 Posted September 4, 2014 http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-09-04/appaloosa-s-tepper-says-u-dot-s-dot-bond-rally-ending-as-ecb-cuts-rates David Tepper, founder of $20 billion hedge-fund firm Appaloosa Management LP, said the rally in the bond market is ending after the European Central Bank unexpectedly cut interest rates to spur economic growth and stave off the threat of deflation. “It’s the beginning of the end of the bond market rally,” Tepper, 56, said in a telephone interview. “We are done.” “Draghi wants inflation in the Euro zone. He will not stop,” Tepper said.
Mephistopheles Posted February 17, 2015 Posted February 17, 2015 http://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=AM Tepper drastically reduced his holdings across the board. Either there were major withdrawals or this is a market call. Interesting given that he predicted "panic buying" this year.
yadayada Posted February 17, 2015 Posted February 17, 2015 not much to be bullish about in the short term. China imports down 20%, house prices are starting to go down, Japanese Central bank is buying almost all the JGB's in the market, and slowly losing credibility. Europe and euro looks shaky, with Greece looking likely to be kicked out. world debt/gdp at sky high levels. The situation seems similar as in 2007, except on steroids.
Guest Posted February 18, 2015 Posted February 18, 2015 http://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=AM Tepper drastically reduced his holdings across the board. Either there were major withdrawals or this is a market call. Interesting given that he predicted "panic buying" this year. I believe he returned a few billion to his clients.
EliG Posted February 18, 2015 Posted February 18, 2015 Tepper drastically reduced his holdings across the board. Either there were major withdrawals or this is a market call. Interesting given that he predicted "panic buying" this year. He planned to return up to 20% of capital in Q4. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/24/investing-hedgefunds-tepper-idUSL2N0TE1US20141124
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