With SolarCity IPO, Elon Musk May Get Clean Tech Right

[Liberty]

Bare in mind Elon does not run SolarCity.

 

Not day to day, but he had the original idea, is chairman, the largest shareholder, is helping with strategy, and those who run it are his cousins. So he's pretty involved, as much as he's gracious about giving credit to others.

[JBird]

IMO they charge the way they do because the average person doesn't think about it the way you do (and not just about this), they think about how much perceived utility they get.

 

People who buy these things see the car being X thousand bucks cooler in their minds, not the hundreds the components cost and the negligible extra labor required.

 

This is a very perceptive observation

[SI]

Insurance policy is 2mn for their system and they will match the duration of your existing roof warranty - mine is 46 years.

 

I found this resource decently valuable Eric.

 

http://www.californiasolarstatistics.ca.gov/

[ERICOPOLY]

This price is more like it -- $3.39 per watt installed cost:

 

http://www.mothernaturesolar.com/

 

Now they just need to grow their company to include my area.

 

quote:

Our prices are so low that on average a system will pay itself off in less than 48 months!

[SI]

Not sure if you have seen the latest Utility bill response but it is to lessen the ROI by jacking the fee for backup power so as to incent those to completely go off the grid and to reduce the amount they pay for solar they repurchase from customers.

 

When I first priced this out I considered getting my electricity usage to a point where I was 80% off the grid but have you looked seriously at any of the natural gas converts or battery backup technologies?

[SI]

Here is a good resource for those in California on $/Watt installs:

 

http://www.californiasolarstatistics.ca.gov/search/contractor/results/?sort=avg_cost_per_watt&distance=10&agency=PG%26E&install_data-ipsquote-timestamp=past_year&input=92672&lookup_by=zip&dir=asc

[ERICOPOLY]

When I first priced this out I considered getting my electricity usage to a point where I was 80% off the grid but have you looked seriously at any of the natural gas converts or battery backup technologies?

 

Not sure who provides battery backup at this time.

 

BYD doesn't have a sales person in this country to talk to (I'm not calling their sales team in China), and Solar City's product is still in beta testing.  I'd love to know what the price point is for an installed system. 

[ERICOPOLY]

Not sure if you have seen the latest Utility bill response but it is to lessen the ROI by jacking the fee for backup power so as to incent those to completely go off the grid and to reduce the amount they pay for solar they repurchase from customers.

 

When I first priced this out I considered getting my electricity usage to a point where I was 80% off the grid but have you looked seriously at any of the natural gas converts or battery backup technologies?

 

Electric vehicles will probably grow as a revenue savior for electric utilities.  Given that EVs will largely charge up during the night, the utilities will then start charging more for overnight electric rates -- coupled with a future popularity for battery residential systems, the time-of-use metering will probably trend towards a flat rate throughout the day.

[jeffmori7]

We talk a lot about solar roof, but how does it compare with a geothermal heat pump? Is one really advantageous over the other?

 

I think for new building, geothermal make a lot of sense, but less sure about retrofit. You need to have already a heat pump system in place to benefit easily from a geothermal system I would think, as opposed to a solar rooftop that would probably fit on most building.

 

I should look into that, but maybe someone has already done the calculations? Any thoughts?

[ERICOPOLY]

We talk a lot about solar roof, but how does it compare with a geothermal heat pump? Is one really advantageous over the other?

 

I think for new building, geothermal make a lot of sense, but less sure about retrofit. You need to have already a heat pump system in place to benefit easily from a geothermal system I would think, as opposed to a solar rooftop that would probably fit on most building.

 

I should look into that, but maybe someone has already done the calculations? Any thoughts?

 

You still need electricity to operate the geothermal heat pump, so the solar electric system is complimentary.

 

Ground-source heat pumps always produce less greenhouse gases than air conditioners, oil furnaces, and electric heating, but natural gas furnaces may be competitive depending on the greenhouse gas intensity of the local electricity supply.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_heat_pump

[Liberty]

We talk a lot about solar roof, but how does it compare with a geothermal heat pump? Is one really advantageous over the other?

 

I think for new building, geothermal make a lot of sense, but less sure about retrofit. You need to have already a heat pump system in place to benefit easily from a geothermal system I would think, as opposed to a solar rooftop that would probably fit on most building.

 

I should look into that, but maybe someone has already done the calculations? Any thoughts?

 

GSHP are a great way to make your heating and cooling more efficient, but they don't really compete with solar systems because they don't produce power.

[jeffmori7]

I agree with you guys they are not the same..I was not implying that. But as a consumer, should I decide to invest in a geothermal heat pump system or into installing solar panel on my roof? How will I get a better return on my investment? If I do both, the upfront cost will be quite high, except if I can pay with the savings a la Solar City or something.

 

Without looking at precise numbers, I tend to think that fixed costs are higher for the GSHP than for solar, but I might be wrong here. Hence, if you don't have a large enough house, GSHP may not be worth it.

[ERICOPOLY]

I agree with you guys they are not the same..I was not implying that. But as a consumer, should I decide to invest in a geothermal heat pump system or into installing solar panel on my roof? How will I get a better return on my investment? If I do both, the upfront cost will be quite high, except if I can pay with the savings a la Solar City or something.

 

Without looking at precise numbers, I tend to think that fixed costs are higher for the GSHP than for solar, but I might be wrong here. Hence, if you don't have a large enough house, GSHP may not be worth it.

 

There is also the air-sourced heat pump (like I have at my house).  They are far cheaper than GSHP.

 

The question is whether you live in a very cold climate, or not.  I live in Santa Barbara region near the ocean.  When the daytime high is 65 degrees average in December, why would I even consider the expense of a GSHP?  I can take that extra cash and put it in solar panels, and then it's obvious.  Plus, there is time-of-use metering to consider.  I can generate solar power for 47 cents per kWh between 10am and 6pm when I don't need the heat to be on, and then later run the heat pump at night when the rates drop as low as 9 cents per kWh.

 

 

[jeffmori7]

It is probably really dependant of your location and your electricity cost. Here in Quebec, it is cold in winter, so most of the energy is used for heating, so GSHP would be great, and air conditioning is also useful in summer. But there is so few incentives here because electricity is at 5 and 7 cents per Kwh...

 

Ir source GSHP is already a efficient way to decrease consumption, but in large cities, it produces a lot of noise and reject heat (like AC in general), so large scale geothermal is more attracting IMO.

[Liberty]

I agree with you guys they are not the same..I was not implying that. But as a consumer, should I decide to invest in a geothermal heat pump system or into installing solar panel on my roof? How will I get a better return on my investment? If I do both, the upfront cost will be quite high, except if I can pay with the savings a la Solar City or something.

 

Without looking at precise numbers, I tend to think that fixed costs are higher for the GSHP than for solar, but I might be wrong here. Hence, if you don't have a large enough house, GSHP may not be worth it.

 

In quebec, GSHPs will make more sense in the vast majority of cases. When we get a house I want one.

[beerbaron]

I did the calculations already and in Quebec a Air Source Heat Pump makes more economic sense than geothermal. With geothermal you barely get your cost of capital, air source heat pump can yield you 10%-20%.

 

Energy saving obeys the law of diminishing return. For example:

 

Let's say that a house with no insulation costs 2000$ to heat.

Adding one foot of insulation around the house will cost you let's say 10 000$ and your energy bill will go down by 1000$.

Adding two feet of insulation around the house will cost you let's say 20 000$ and your energy bill will go down by 1500$

Adding sixteen feet of insulation around the house will cost you let's say 200 000$ and your energy bill will go down by 1937$

 

BeerBaron

[jeffmori7]

Thanks Beerbaron. For the air source heat pump, does it imply an already installed central heating system, where you replace the electric furnace only? Because the problem is nowadays, they build a lot of house without air ducts in Quebec, using only radiators...

[ERICOPOLY]

Thanks Beerbaron. For the air source heat pump, does it imply an already installed central heating system, where you replace the electric furnace only? Because the problem is nowadays, they build a lot of house without air ducts in Quebec, using only radiators...

 

You do need forced air ducts.

 

Also, you will still have a furnace.  Sometimes the air-source heat pump gets switched off automatically and the furnace then kicks in...  this transition happens when air temperatures drop to the point where it is too inefficient to run the heat pump -- somewhere down near the freezing level.  This is the point where the ground-sourced heat pump would still be operating efficiently.

 

http://energy.gov/energysaver/articles/air-source-heat-pumps

 

When outdoor temperatures fall below 40°F, a less-efficient panel of electric resistance coils, similar to those in your toaster, kicks in to provide indoor heating. This is why air-source heat pumps aren't always very efficient for heating in areas with cold winters. Some units now have gas-fired backup furnaces instead of electric resistance coils, allowing them to operate more efficiently.

 

[Liberty]

I did the calculations already and in Quebec a Air Source Heat Pump makes more economic sense than geothermal. With geothermal you barely get your cost of capital, air source heat pump can yield you 10%-20%.

 

Energy saving obeys the law of diminishing return. For example:

 

Let's say that a house with no insulation costs 2000$ to heat.

Adding one foot of insulation around the house will cost you let's say 10 000$ and your energy bill will go down by 1000$.

Adding two feet of insulation around the house will cost you let's say 20 000$ and your energy bill will go down by 1500$

Adding sixteen feet of insulation around the house will cost you let's say 200 000$ and your energy bill will go down by 1937$

 

BeerBaron

 

The noise they make disqualify them for me. Have you found near silent models? I haven't.

[beerbaron]

I did the calculations already and in Quebec a Air Source Heat Pump makes more economic sense than geothermal. With geothermal you barely get your cost of capital, air source heat pump can yield you 10%-20%.

 

Energy saving obeys the law of diminishing return. For example:

 

Let's say that a house with no insulation costs 2000$ to heat.

Adding one foot of insulation around the house will cost you let's say 10 000$ and your energy bill will go down by 1000$.

Adding two feet of insulation around the house will cost you let's say 20 000$ and your energy bill will go down by 1500$

Adding sixteen feet of insulation around the house will cost you let's say 200 000$ and your energy bill will go down by 1937$

 

BeerBaron

 

The noise they make disqualify them for me. Have you found near silent models? I haven't.

 

Not really, although Carrier Infinity Greenspeed has a fully variable compressor and fan speed. Noise becomes lesser of a problem because the heat pump rarely runs at full capacity.

 

I have attached a PDF I got from a salesman (in french) and it does a pretty good explanation of the energy savings.

 

BeerBaron

 

BeerBaron

VNA-dealersJuin_2011.pdf

[JBird]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-30/ikea-to-start-selling-photovoltaic-panels-in-all-u-k-sto.html

 

IKEA is now selling solar panels for $2.73 per watt, before installation.

[Liberty]

Number of MW installed is growing nicely

 

http://amda-14lqre.client.shareholder.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=796398

 

Stock up over 18% right now on that guidance.

[rkbabang]

Not sure who provides battery backup at this time.

 

BYD doesn't have a sales person in this country to talk to (I'm not calling their sales team in China), and Solar City's product is still in beta testing.  I'd love to know what the price point is for an installed system. 

 

 

 

Eric,  I just ran across this company's website.  EOS Energy.

 

They don't mention residential on that page, but their smallest "commercial and industrial" units sound perfect for what you are looking for.  They say

 

    Decrease company electric bills by allowing customers to buy off-peak power and use it as required during peak times

    Avoid demand charges, which in many places can exceed the cost of electricity

    Go green, by storing intermittent renewable energy from wind or solar and using it to replace peak power consumption

    Provide high quality backup power, eliminating the need for environmentally unfriendly backup generators and UPS (uninterrupted power supply) system

 

 

Eos Aurora Battery Platform

 

    Flexible size configurations to meet different power needs:

 

- Aurora 2 | 12: modular 2kW units with six hours of storage (12kWh) - Aurora 1000 | 6000: 1 MW with six hours of storage (6 MWh) made up of 2kW (12kWh) sub-modules

 

        Response time: Immediate

        Low cost

 

- Low capital cost: $1000/kW, $160/kWh

 

        Low maintenance: no periodic replacement of components (e.g., membranes, cells)

 

- Low levelized cost/kWh for renewable integration and load shifting applications - Low total life-cycle cost: Estimated at $0.125/kWh of energy consumed

 

    30 year life, 10,000 full daily cycles

 

 

Here's a presentation where they talk about grid storage, electric vehicle applications, as well as residential applications like what you are looking for.

 

http://www.eosenergystorage.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Eos-Public-Presentation-2013-02-11.pdf

 

The only problem is that it looks like none of these systems are shipping just yet. 2014 for the grid-scale systems and 2015 for the smaller systems.

 

[ERICOPOLY]

Not sure who provides battery backup at this time.

 

BYD doesn't have a sales person in this country to talk to (I'm not calling their sales team in China), and Solar City's product is still in beta testing.  I'd love to know what the price point is for an installed system. 

 

 

 

Eric,  I just ran across this company's website.  EOS Energy.

 

They don't mention residential on that page, but their smallest "commercial and industrial" units sound perfect for what you are looking for.  They say

 

    Decrease company electric bills by allowing customers to buy off-peak power and use it as required during peak times

    Avoid demand charges, which in many places can exceed the cost of electricity

    Go green, by storing intermittent renewable energy from wind or solar and using it to replace peak power consumption

    Provide high quality backup power, eliminating the need for environmentally unfriendly backup generators and UPS (uninterrupted power supply) system

 

 

Eos Aurora Battery Platform

 

    Flexible size configurations to meet different power needs:

 

- Aurora 2 | 12: modular 2kW units with six hours of storage (12kWh) - Aurora 1000 | 6000: 1 MW with six hours of storage (6 MWh) made up of 2kW (12kWh) sub-modules

 

        Response time: Immediate

        Low cost

 

- Low capital cost: $1000/kW, $160/kWh

 

        Low maintenance: no periodic replacement of components (e.g., membranes, cells)

 

- Low levelized cost/kWh for renewable integration and load shifting applications - Low total life-cycle cost: Estimated at $0.125/kWh of energy consumed

 

    30 year life, 10,000 full daily cycles

 

 

Here's a presentation where they talk about grid storage, electric vehicle applications, as well as residential applications like what you are looking for.

 

http://www.eosenergystorage.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Eos-Public-Presentation-2013-02-11.pdf

 

The only problem is that it looks like none of these systems are shipping just yet. 2014 for the grid-scale systems and 2015 for the smaller systems.

 

 

That's pretty cool, finally a cost estimate.  Thanks.

 

So they figure it will cost 12.5 cents per kWh to own their system.

 

So if I buy the electricity at night for 9 cents, store it in the battery for an added 12.5 cents, and release it at noon for 47 cents, then I'm saving 25.5 cents.

 

That's a 46% reduction in price of electricity with their system.

 

[Liberty]

SolarCity stock up almost 20% today... Up 450% in about a year.