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Fairfax's break even share price for RIMM


nwoodman

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I am a tech guy, but I have to admit I really can't understand technology companies, they are beyond my knowledge base. My estimation for RIMM was zero, and I was ready to treat RIMM as 0 in FFH's portfolio, all of a sudden , it worth $800M.

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Every dollar rise in share price is $50M increase!  Ka-ching, Ka-ching!!!  Killing the shorts...

I personally wouldn't get too excited yet. I haven't followed the RIM story (or the RIM thread on this board) much, but does any of this price-action matter before it becomes clear whether the BB10 will sink or swim? As a distant observer, that seems to be make or break for the company. I guess it also depends on what the patents etc could reasonable be sold for (floor worst-case liquidation situation), which I have no clue.

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Every dollar rise in share price is $50M increase!  Ka-ching, Ka-ching!!!  Killing the shorts...

I personally wouldn't get too excited yet. I haven't followed the RIM story (or the RIM thread on this board) much, but does any of this price-action matter before it becomes clear whether the BB10 will sink or swim? As a distant observer, that seems to be make or break for the company. I guess it also depends on what the patents etc could reasonable be sold for (floor worst-case liquidation situation), which I have no clue.

There is actually lots of reasons to get excited it is not just RIMM that has been adding alpha. This has been the best month for FFH since they put on the S&P hedges as far as their equity portfolio is concerned. LVLT RFP RIMM Bank of Ireland. FFH has targeted a 15% return but warned that the returns would be lumpy being dumped from the index created an entry point and a turnaround in many of FFH positions have  being like gasoline poured on the fire Insurance stocks in general have caught a bid as of late.
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Every dollar rise in share price is $50M increase!  Ka-ching, Ka-ching!!!  Killing the shorts...

I personally wouldn't get too excited yet. I haven't followed the RIM story (or the RIM thread on this board) much, but does any of this price-action matter before it becomes clear whether the BB10 will sink or swim? As a distant observer, that seems to be make or break for the company. I guess it also depends on what the patents etc could reasonable be sold for (floor worst-case liquidation situation), which I have no clue.

 

 

The performance of RIM is certainly debatable, as you suggested.  But to me the bigger issue is that FFH does not have a viable exit strategy.  Now that Prem is a RIM board member, he will be hard pressed to dump RIM shares, even if they approach a price that is near FFH's evaluation of intrinsic value.  After all, what does it say about his commitment to the company if he dumps his (our!) position?

 

If you can't sell, and they don't pay a dividend....

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Every dollar rise in share price is $50M increase!  Ka-ching, Ka-ching!!!  Killing the shorts...

I personally wouldn't get too excited yet. I haven't followed the RIM story (or the RIM thread on this board) much, but does any of this price-action matter before it becomes clear whether the BB10 will sink or swim? As a distant observer, that seems to be make or break for the company. I guess it also depends on what the patents etc could reasonable be sold for (floor worst-case liquidation situation), which I have no clue.

 

 

The performance of RIM is certainly debatable, as you suggested.  But to me the bigger issue is that FFH does not have a viable exit strategy.  Now that Prem is a RIM board member, he will be hard pressed to dump RIM shares, even if they approach a price that is near FFH's evaluation of intrinsic value.  After all, what does it say about his commitment to the company if he dumps his (our!) position?

 

If you can't sell, and they don't pay a dividend....

 

I personally hope that Prem behaves prudently and not linear like in the similar fashion of the ICO investment, thus he might sell it earlier or even hold it for some longer time. It all should depend in what direction RIMM goes, cigar butt or a revival to new glory as some alternative ecosystem. In this case he might secure profits after doubling his initial average cost basis, afterward sell half like ICO, and keep the remaining other half for some longer time.

 

-----

From the AR:

 

As an example of our long term value investing approach and the need to be patient and calm through adverse market fluctuations, in the table below we show you the results of our purchase and sale of shares of International Coal. This is a company of which Wilbur Ross was Chairman and owned 16%. Our Sam Mitchell, who originated this purchase idea, joined the Board in 2008, after we had acquired 13.8% of the shares.

 

....we averaged down from our initial cost of $4.58 per share to an average cost of $3.37 per share. We sold half our position at $7.26 per share (a 115% gain) and only five months later, there was a takeover offer for the whole company at double that price. In spite of not buying only at the low and not selling only at the high, we earned $341.2 million by selling at over three times our cost. Our experience with International Coal is exactly what we have done over 35 years of investing – average down when buying and average up when sell- ing! An added advantage in this case – we got to know Wilbur and he is an excellent partner.

 

http://www.fairfax.ca/files/Letter%20to%20Shareholders%20from%20Annual%20Report%202011%20FINAL_v001_j939zn.pdf

 

-----

 

I wouldn't get to exited about the current market cap, because everything depends if RIMM can deliver earnings again and/or if FFH is able to harvest the underlying intrinsic or break-up value. But nevertheless here is some glimps into their historic market cap.

 

RIMM historical market cap data:

http://ycharts.com/companies/RIMM/market_cap

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Every dollar rise in share price is $50M increase!  Ka-ching, Ka-ching!!!  Killing the shorts...

I personally wouldn't get too excited yet. I haven't followed the RIM story (or the RIM thread on this board) much, but does any of this price-action matter before it becomes clear whether the BB10 will sink or swim? As a distant observer, that seems to be make or break for the company. I guess it also depends on what the patents etc could reasonable be sold for (floor worst-case liquidation situation), which I have no clue.

 

 

The performance of RIM is certainly debatable, as you suggested.  But to me the bigger issue is that FFH does not have a viable exit strategy.  Now that Prem is a RIM board member, he will be hard pressed to dump RIM shares, even if they approach a price that is near FFH's evaluation of intrinsic value.  After all, what does it say about his commitment to the company if he dumps his (our!) position?

 

If you can't sell, and they don't pay a dividend....

 

I beg to differ. I find it highly unlikely that Watsa, Bradstreet and Co would take such a big stake if they did not think that they had a reasonable exit strategy. Perhaps Prem entering the board will make it easier to implement a plan B if the need arises (e.g. slice and dice).

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Every dollar rise in share price is $50M increase!  Ka-ching, Ka-ching!!!  Killing the shorts...

I personally wouldn't get too excited yet. I haven't followed the RIM story (or the RIM thread on this board) much, but does any of this price-action matter before it becomes clear whether the BB10 will sink or swim? As a distant observer, that seems to be make or break for the company. I guess it also depends on what the patents etc could reasonable be sold for (floor worst-case liquidation situation), which I have no clue.

 

 

The performance of RIM is certainly debatable, as you suggested.  But to me the bigger issue is that FFH does not have a viable exit strategy.  Now that Prem is a RIM board member, he will be hard pressed to dump RIM shares, even if they approach a price that is near FFH's evaluation of intrinsic value.  After all, what does it say about his commitment to the company if he dumps his (our!) position?

 

If you can't sell, and they don't pay a dividend....

 

I beg to differ. I find it highly unlikely that Watsa, Bradstreet and Co would take such a big stake if they did not think that they had a reasonable exit strategy. Perhaps Prem entering the board will make it easier to implement a plan B if the need arises (e.g. slice and dice).

 

I rather hope that Prem brings RIM's CEO Thorsten Heins as some surprise guest to this years shareholders dinner at the Fairmont. ;)

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Every dollar rise in share price is $50M increase!  Ka-ching, Ka-ching!!!  Killing the shorts...

I personally wouldn't get too excited yet. I haven't followed the RIM story (or the RIM thread on this board) much, but does any of this price-action matter before it becomes clear whether the BB10 will sink or swim? As a distant observer, that seems to be make or break for the company. I guess it also depends on what the patents etc could reasonable be sold for (floor worst-case liquidation situation), which I have no clue.

There is actually lots of reasons to get excited it is not just RIMM that has been adding alpha. This has been the best month for FFH since they put on the S&P hedges as far as their equity portfolio is concerned. LVLT RFP RIMM Bank of Ireland. FFH has targeted a 15% return but warned that the returns would be lumpy being dumped from the index created an entry point and a turnaround in many of FFH positions have  being like gasoline poured on the fire Insurance stocks in general have caught a bid as of late.

 

Agreed (I doubled my position in Fairfax last quarter). I'm just reserving any mental fist pumps on the specific RIM situation for later.

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