Guest Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 It's not skill, it's risk tolerance. Like I've said, after BAC works out I'm done. This is my last big gamble. Then I'm going to hold a big chunk of BRK or FFH and the numbers will no longer be volatile. Buffett also said that he was going to retire after he had a few million (maybe $10 million?) back in the day, too. ;) You got a knack for investing, eric. I've learned a ton from you and I'm very thankful that you're on the board (even if you are an unmoral, dirty atheist!). :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 110% YTD saw this one coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
txlaw Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 110% YTD Nice. How much of your portfolio is still BAC exposure, if you don't mind me asking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moore_capital54 Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Hi all, What is your 2012 YTD rate of return? My portfolio is up 11% and currently sits at an all time high!!! My big winners are in the banking industry - US Bancorp (4.23% of my portfolio), Wells Fargo (4.23% of my portfolio) and Bank of America. (Thank you board!!!! and it is 4.8% of my portfolio) The losers of my portfolio this year is Fairfax. (10.72% of my portfolio) For Moorecapital, my portfolio is between $250-500,000 just to add that in perspective and I am 31 years old. S Very good return on a decent amount of capital! I commend you for sharing the portfolio size as it definitely provides much needed clarity. Providing large nominal returns without portfolio size are a waste of time for readers imho We are up about 21% in the value funds and down about 4% in the resource funds (the TSX V has been very tough this year) but I have a good feeling both will end up 10-20% higher by the end of the year. Combined AUM $120mm~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 eric, would you mind sharing some of your options strategies and thinking? for example I understand you are big in BAC, do you just by calls mostly for the outsize return? Sometimes I will write a put and use the proceeds to purchase calls. Like say for example I want to go long 100% notional BAC but I'm worried about systemic risk in the global banking system originating from a potential disaster with the Eurozone periphery states. I can: 1) write puts on something else and collect "the proceeds" upfront 2) use "the proceeds" to either buy calls on BAC or purchase puts on BAC This is a "Frankenfolio". I might have 100% upside BAC but with 0% downside of BAC. This is what options markets are designed for -- swapping risk with others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enoch01 Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 +17% YTD This thread makes me nervous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 110% YTD Nice. How much of your portfolio is still BAC exposure, if you don't mind me asking? I think it's about 60% of net worth downside exposure to BAC in the event of $0 BAC stock price. It's a complicated setup though -- I have more than 100% notional in-the-money in BAC at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hyten1 Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 eric i hear ya, that is what i have been doing to some extend, but i don't have the conviction to be so concentrated in any one position. hy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 It's not skill, it's risk tolerance. Like I've said, after BAC works out I'm done. This is my last big gamble. Then I'm going to hold a big chunk of BRK or FFH and the numbers will no longer be volatile. Buffett also said that he was going to retire after he had a few million (maybe $10 million?) back in the day, too. ;) You got a knack for investing, eric. I've learned a ton from you and I'm very thankful that you're on the board (even if you are an unmoral, dirty atheist!). :) Well he also said a long string of good results followed by a zero is still a zero. That's where I'm coming from, because after all I'm not Warren. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mevsemt Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Up roughly 60%. I was up 57% at the end of Q2, and things have gone up since then. See blog for holdings and portfolio size/composition (http://mevsemt.blogspot.com/) -MEvsEMT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giofranchi Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 OK!!!!! I am definitely jealous!!!!! ;D ;D ;D giofranchi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racemize Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Very good return on a decent amount of capital! I commend you for sharing the portfolio size as it definitely provides much needed clarity. Providing large nominal returns without portfolio size are a waste of time for readers imho I'm not sure I understand the above, as I doubt many people on this board are dealing with < 50k (although I'm not sure what your threshold is). It seems like most people here are not just playing with small amounts. In any event I'm at around 350k at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Up roughly 60%. I was up 57% at the end of Q2, and things have gone up since then. See blog for holdings and portfolio size/composition (http://mevsemt.blogspot.com/) -MEvsEMT When are you gonna update your site, man? It's one of my favorite blogs! :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 +15% financials, brk, special situations..... market valuations are rich, will continue keeping plenty of cash..... regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 It is also easier to take on concentrated risk when you have a large portfolio. There is some kind of concept analogous to the Laffer Curve at work here. A) When the portfolio is itty bitty relative to your rate of savings, then you can have a lot of risk and have it not be that risky. B) When you have tons more invested than person "A" has, yet the amount you have is barely enough to retire on (and you then go ahead and retire), then you cannot take on much risk at all because C) When you have 3x as much money as you need to retire on (you are triple rich compared to person "B", and you are still young anyhow (I'm 39), then you can afford a goodly amount of risk. So "the bigger the line you swing in the market" beyond a certain point, the easier it is to sleep with risky positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abcd Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 I don’t know about LRE, but I am extremely curious. Can you write something about them? I would really appreciate it very much! And, if I like what I see, I will surely consider an investment with them. Thank you! giofranchi http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/lre-l-lancashire-holdings-ltd/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysinvert Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 It is also easier to take on concentrated risk when you have a large portfolio. There is some kind of concept analogous to the Laffer Curve at work here. A) When the portfolio is itty bitty relative to your rate of savings, then you can have a lot of risk and have it not be that risky. B) When you have tons more invested than person "A" has, yet the amount you have is barely enough to retire on (and you then go ahead and retire), then you cannot take on much risk at all because C) When you have 3x as much money as you need to retire on (you are triple rich compared to person "B", and you are still young anyhow (I'm 39), then you can afford a goodly amount of risk. So "the bigger the line you swing in the market" beyond a certain point, the easier it is to sleep with risky positions. I've had the exact same thoughts though not so well formulated. Sadly, I'm in the B) category but trying to ignore the scare of losing money. I'm not smart enough to take calculated risks with options like you, however, so that's out of the window anyway. 'Starting over' when you are decently young because you lost some money doesn't seem like such a huge burden when you have a chance (with good odds) of hitting the stratosphere if you aren't unlucky. But being in the same situation at 50 feels like something you should probably avoid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mevsemt Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Up roughly 60%. I was up 57% at the end of Q2, and things have gone up since then. See blog for holdings and portfolio size/composition (http://mevsemt.blogspot.com/) -MEvsEMT When are you gonna update your site, man? It's one of my favorite blogs! :) Sorry man, I've been spending a lot of time on non-blog stuff, so I haven't been posting as much as I'd like. However, with the market hitting new highs, I'm not finding many new ideas (hence the 45% cash). Since I'm basically sitting on my hands right now, I don't have much to write about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anders Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Hmmm agree with Moore_Capital54 here, hard to put any value on performance contra aum.. ??? Value focused portfolio 20+%, FX account up 250+% (on very small amount and crazy leverage).. I suggest that next time we put in the generator into the equation as well.. Best, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Up roughly 60%. I was up 57% at the end of Q2, and things have gone up since then. See blog for holdings and portfolio size/composition (http://mevsemt.blogspot.com/) -MEvsEMT When are you gonna update your site, man? It's one of my favorite blogs! :) +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Down big because of ATPG! Wait, it's ATPAQ now.. or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Partner24 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Quite frankly I don't know my YTD rate of return and I don't care. Overall, the underlying businesses are doing well, the stock prices still provide a decent margin of safety...and that's what important to me. Take care of the bottom line and the stock price will follow. I've been a partial owner of all the businesses in it since 4 to 9 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meiroy Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 eric, would you mind sharing some of your options strategies and thinking? for example I understand you are big in BAC, do you just by calls mostly for the outsize return? Sometimes I will write a put and use the proceeds to purchase calls. Like say for example I want to go long 100% notional BAC but I'm worried about systemic risk in the global banking system originating from a potential disaster with the Eurozone periphery states. I can: 1) write puts on something else and collect "the proceeds" upfront 2) use "the proceeds" to either buy calls on BAC or purchase puts on BAC This is a "Frankenfolio". I might have 100% upside BAC but with 0% downside of BAC. This is what options markets are designed for -- swapping risk with others. My guess you wrote puts on WFC. Correct? Joel Greenblatt did 40% over a period of 20 years, with a way of thinking which is somewhat similar to yours: 1. keep all in context (the BAC thread shows beautifully how you guys consider it a good investment not just because of the discount to TB but because of the context of the change in the business itself, something many analysts would miss. That is, intrinsic value is business intrinsic value, which might not be only seen from the accounting numbers. Numbers could be the same, conclusion different. Thanks for that!) 2. consider the risk:reward and use leaps/options when possible. 3. highly concentrated portfolio. And he did that with well over 10M, returning capital to clients when the fund got too big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Eric - random question - do you have any recommendation of books that simply explain options? I've read a few, but most of my option trades have been unprofitable. I don't like the idea of the being against me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green King Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Eric - random question - do you have any recommendation of books that simply explain options? I've read a few, but most of my option trades have been unprofitable. I don't like the idea of the being against me. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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