Jump to content

ECRI guys still predicting a recession


shalab
 Share

Recommended Posts

For those who have been following this here is the link to a Dec 8 interview on Bloomberg. I like it because it was 8 minutes and they actually got into a little detail. Interesting comment: he said most forcasters today are calling for a 'muddle through' economy. He said this type of economy never actually happens; you always get growth or recession. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/ecris-achuthan-u-s-economic-outlook-labor-market/

 

Europe is in recession; the US looks to be slipping into recession and China looks to be slowing. Interesting times...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Europe is in recession; the US looks to be slipping into recession and China looks to be slowing. Interesting times...

 

Europe is definitely in recession, and will probably experience significant neo-stagflation.  China is slowing, but that may actually be a good thing, as it may allow a soft landing.  The U.S. is not slipping into recession...in fact, things are accelerating if anything...although I expect it to remain around 2-2.5% GDP growth for the next couple of years as the housing market will take about that amount of time to start turning around.  Cheers!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Thanks for posting that, I now understand why the ECRI is thinking a recession is coming.

 

He is looking at decelerating growth (down to 0.2%) in the consumer discretionary income.  He might be looking at other things but given that he mentioned this one, it must be a big part of the puzzle.

 

Thinking about it logically, if discretionary income contracts then you have a headwind.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...