ECRI guys still predicting a recession

[shalab]

Their prediction apparently should work out in 2-3 quarters not years after prediction. Essentially, their prediction should work out by Q2 2012 or they are off.

 

http://www.businesscycle.com/news_events/news_details/3104

 

[alertmeipp]

for me, that's silly... by that time, we may have ended the recession already.

[Viking]

For those who have been following this here is the link to a Dec 8 interview on Bloomberg. I like it because it was 8 minutes and they actually got into a little detail. Interesting comment: he said most forcasters today are calling for a 'muddle through' economy. He said this type of economy never actually happens; you always get growth or recession. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/12/ecris-achuthan-u-s-economic-outlook-labor-market/

 

Europe is in recession; the US looks to be slipping into recession and China looks to be slowing. Interesting times...

[Parsad]

Europe is in recession; the US looks to be slipping into recession and China looks to be slowing. Interesting times...

 

Europe is definitely in recession, and will probably experience significant neo-stagflation.  China is slowing, but that may actually be a good thing, as it may allow a soft landing.  The U.S. is not slipping into recession...in fact, things are accelerating if anything...although I expect it to remain around 2-2.5% GDP growth for the next couple of years as the housing market will take about that amount of time to start turning around.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

Article that reflects an improving mood for the U.S. consumer, while a stagnant economy is starting to affect Europe.  Cheers!

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-09/consumer-confidence-in-u-s-climbs-more-than-forecast-to-a-six-month-high.html

[dcollon]

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/82431734/#ooid=J2Zjc0MzpoXU3leEgpW7bRrdzsJ_Uio7

 

[ERICOPOLY]

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/82431734/#ooid=J2Zjc0MzpoXU3leEgpW7bRrdzsJ_Uio7

 

Thanks for posting that, I now understand why the ECRI is thinking a recession is coming.

 

He is looking at decelerating growth (down to 0.2%) in the consumer discretionary income.  He might be looking at other things but given that he mentioned this one, it must be a big part of the puzzle.

 

Thinking about it logically, if discretionary income contracts then you have a headwind.