ERICOPOLY Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 eric, where have you been? I haven't seen you post here in a long time! Good to have ya back (unless you've been here and I just didn't see you!). :) I've been to Oregon, California and Nevada -- I bought one of the Sprinter van RV conversions that Roadtrek makes. The past two weeks on the road. I was active a lot on this board back in April/May/June when I couldn't walk following a foot&ankle surgery. Now I can get around much better, so I've been out doing other things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I'm sure there are great bargains available now, but a 10% drop from these levels didn't trigger me to buy. If you believe GMO's forecasts then the market was priced for very small returns over the next 7 years. S&P 1100 would get me to call in sick from work to do more research though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finetrader Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I have this feeling we will be hearing about deflation again in a not too distant future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morgan Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Indeed a perversely good day. About 20% cash and waiting in the wings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxprogram Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Plus, you gotta remember when you're look at valuation, these historical numbers were based on higher interest rates. So, that would mean stocks don't look as highly valued in relative terms, at least. The problem with this argument -- is that it's a relative valuation to bonds. The 130 year average P/E takes into account many different interest rate environments, and hence should be a good barometer no matter the rate. If someone from "above" (not Bernanke!) declared that interest rates would forever stay low, then that argument would hold up. But otherwise to me it is equivalent to saying in 1982 that stocks are fairly valued because bond yields are so high. On a related note, for those interested I chart the price of the S&P related to value (using the avg. Shiller P/E and historic 1% real earnings growth) in the following graph: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/17160368/SP.Value.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twacowfca Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 eric, where have you been? I haven't seen you post here in a long time! Good to have ya back (unless you've been here and I just didn't see you!). :) I've been to Oregon, California and Nevada -- I bought one of the Sprinter van RV conversions that Roadtrek makes. The past two weeks on the road. I was active a lot on this board back in April/May/June when I couldn't walk following a foot&ankle surgery. Now I can get around much better, so I've been out doing other things. How do you like your Roadtrek? We've been thinking of one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ERICOPOLY Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 eric, where have you been? I haven't seen you post here in a long time! Good to have ya back (unless you've been here and I just didn't see you!). :) I've been to Oregon, California and Nevada -- I bought one of the Sprinter van RV conversions that Roadtrek makes. The past two weeks on the road. I was active a lot on this board back in April/May/June when I couldn't walk following a foot&ankle surgery. Now I can get around much better, so I've been out doing other things. How do you like your Roadtrek? We've been thinking of one. It's basically what we expected, but quality could be higher. From day one the sensors in the fresh water tanks have not worked -- never reads full even when spilling over, and reads empty when still 2/3 full! Some of the stuff is poorly put together -- things have come unglued, one of the cabinets doesn't latch. Can't they build them better at that price? What the hell are they doing with glue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CONeal Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Thank goodness for a friend with an iPhone today. Was able to get my but off the beach for a couple of hours to buy some goodies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arbitragr Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 More to fall. Not done yet. I wouldn't buy with leverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustabound Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Seems like an appropriate thread for this blog I found, http://brokershandsontheirfacesblog.tumblr.com/ They're obviously not value investors. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Seems like an appropriate thread for this blog I found, http://brokershandsontheirfacesblog.tumblr.com/ They're obviously not value investors. ;D Lets make our own version... http://elisemyers.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/child_candy_store.jpeg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rranjan Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I think financials are very cheap at this point. People are still comparing it to 2008/2009 scenario which is apple to orange comparison in my opinion. I found it interesting to see that the financial sector in the S&P500 is less heavily shorted than the average for the index across all sectors. Does this suggest that the market agrees with you? Presumably they'd be heavily shorted if the sentiment was that financial sector is shaky. You may be right but I wish they get heavily shorted ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I understand the appeal of BAC but what about WFC at these levels? Why buy second hand when the fur coats are on sale? I wouldn't be surprised to see Wells throw out $4/share earnings in 2013. Hey we bought both today! Both are really cheap and completely undervalued. Cheers! And...WFC downgrades BAC this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Seems like an appropriate thread for this blog I found, http://brokershandsontheirfacesblog.tumblr.com/ They're obviously not value investors. ;D LOL Thanks I needed a good laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluedevil Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I think BAC made a huge mistake when it tried to settle out of its mortgage backed securities problems. Once you do that, it becomes a feeding frenzy, everybody sues you, whether they have real claims or not. You have to fight such claims tooth and nail while selectively settling the strongest claims. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCG Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Another swing of over 420 points in the matter of a couple hours. Have to believe a majority of this nonsense is being caused by high-frequency trading systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Might not have had much cash coming into this, but I did the next best thing: sold some stuff that was close to fair value for other things that were very undervalued according to my analysis. It's crazy how some small caps are dropping so much on very low volume. Guess this happens with illiquid stocks when there's just no buyers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uccmal Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 It's crazy how some small caps are dropping so much on very low volume. Guess this happens with illiquid stocks when there's just no buyers... Margin calls I expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myth465 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 It's crazy how some small caps are dropping so much on very low volume. Guess this happens with illiquid stocks when there's just no buyers... Margin calls I expect. I may get killed but I have to go with my gut. Any winners over the year are being sold to pay for margin calls, and redemptions. Its why I think SD and a host of other names are selling off hard.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragnarisapirate Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Might not have had much cash coming into this, but I did the next best thing: sold some stuff that was close to fair value for other things that were very undervalued according to my analysis. It's crazy how some small caps are dropping so much on very low volume. Guess this happens with illiquid stocks when there's just no buyers... IBAL, something that I have been long for quite a while, just dropped about 13% on something like $7.5K worth of stock trading hands... If I thought it would fly (and I could get financing) I would take the thing private at that price. I would imagine that is a pretty common thought in regard to a lot of small caps today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icarus Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I'm not convinced that the entire market as a whole is a good value even after the recent declines. I've been selling lately and I'm waiting to buy if the market drops lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I'm not convinced that the entire market as a whole is a good value even after the recent declines. I've been selling lately and I'm waiting to buy if the market drops lower. I definitely wouldn't buy the market as a whole. But there are many individual companies that are dirt cheap right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alertmeipp Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 It's crazy how some small caps are dropping so much on very low volume. Guess this happens with illiquid stocks when there's just no buyers... Margin calls I expect. I may get killed but I have to go with my gut. Any winners over the year are being sold to pay for margin calls, and redemptions. Its why I think SD and a host of other names are selling off hard.... Got killed at SD as it's a big position for me. Both leap and common. And ATPG... leveraged play in leverage concerning and commodities market ... good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 I definitely wouldn't buy the market as a whole. But there are many individual companies that are dirt cheap right now.. Yup! There are actually quite a few companies that are now trading lower than they did during the worst parts of 2008/2009, and their income and balance sheet statements are far, far better. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShahKhezri Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I understand the appeal of BAC but what about WFC at these levels? Why buy second hand when the fur coats are on sale? I wouldn't be surprised to see Wells throw out $4/share earnings in 2013. Hey we bought both today! Both are really cheap and completely undervalued. Cheers! And...WFC downgrades BAC this morning. It was a revised GDP downgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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