Smazz Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 In other news, futures are saying we should be in for more fun tommorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
given2invest Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Welcome back Mungerville, Mungerville is one of our early and better posters. Sswan11, Reread Tom Brown's posts leading up to the original credit crisis. He is generally a little overly optimistic to say the least. I stopped reading his blog shortly after the credit crisis started. That being said they are right on BAC. Tom Brown is a moron who basically got wiped out in 08. Nothing he says should be taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oec2000 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 For those who think it's not 2008 all over again, are any of you buying the Greek 1yr bonds yielding 80%? Or do you see a scenario where Greece can fail and the whole system doesn't implode again? The longer it takes them to fail, the smaller the event will be (CDS contracts have a maturity date). That doesn't really answer the question, but it does explain perhaps why kicking it down the road isn't so dumb. Firstly, CDS are not all that matters. Kicking the can down the road does not help the holder of Greek debt (ironically, some of them may actually hold CDS as hedges and will suffer if they expire). But the main point is that delays only create a further explosion of Greek debt. At current rates, the increase will be exponential and unsustainable for long. Secondly, Greece is not the real problem. It's contagion to the bigger economies. Delays greatly increase the risk of contagion which is why kicking the can could be disastrous. Thirdly, you overlook the likely possibility that Greek CDS holders may be taking their gains and recycling them into buying cheaper Spanish and Italian CDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Because Fairfax is leveraged 4 to 1 asset to equity and has over $2B in debt. They cannot afford a 25% drop in their portfolio. If that happened they would never be able to write business again! Cheers! this comment would indicate that the equity hedge is primarily driven by concerns regarding market valuations instead of being driven by leverage/insurance regulations...???? Your equity position is 100 percent hedged. Why? If you looked at 2008–09 as just another post-war recession, then you would be very optimistic. You would say, “Things are going to continue to do well. Yes, the recovery is a little slower than it has been, but things will work out and you should be investing in equities.” On the other hand, if you thought 2008–09 was, in insurance parlance, a once-in-50-years event, like the Great Depression was in the 1930s and like Japan is and was in the past 20 years, then you might say you have to be careful. Because stock markets from the bottom of 2009 have gone up more than 100 percent and interest rate spreads have come down dramatically, down to the levels (and perhaps even below the levels) of 2007 and 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 As an insurance company, Prem has to protect the company from outlier events. Events that would barely create consternation in an unleveraged portfolio, could have dramatic, company-wide results for him. He's hedged for virtually every scenario. Just because Fairfax's insurance companies run models on worst-case scenarios for an 8.0 earthquake in a major metropolitan centre and a Category 5 hurricane hitting the east coast in the same year, doesn't mean they expect it to necessarily happen, or that it would happen in the next year or five years. But they have to be prepared nonetheless. The hedges are no different. He does not know, just like all of us, what the outcome will be. But he's concerned, and he has to worry about worst-case scenarios. At the very least, the economy is going to be stagnant, deleveraging continues and unemployment elevated. He follows the Boyscout moto: Be prepared! Francis Chou knows Prem as well as anyone...how come Francis isn't hedged in the Chou Funds? He could buy credit-default swaps protecting for any scenario. But he has none. No swaps, currency contracts, puts, etc. And remember, if they ever need someone at Hamblin-Watsa, this guy is probably the first person on the list they are going to call. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Lovely frickin' ending to day. Wonder if it's the start of a new mini-panic.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BargainValueHunter Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Lovely frickin' ending to day. Wonder if it's the start of a new mini-panic.. I sure hope so! I've got a whole bunch of Federal Reserve Notes that need to be converted into deeply undervalued shares of profitable, wide-moat enterprises with strong, defensible brand franchises and free cash flow growth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:LUK Seriously? :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:LUK Seriously? :o Look at CLF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:LUK Seriously? :o Look at CLF... Almost -20% in two trading hours, not bad... No idea where this is going to end but I am contemplating switching some of my BRK to cheaper stuff very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rijk Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 management at LUK (wisely) sold a fair % of their significant holdings around 35, if we get lucky, we will soon be able to buy again under 20..... regards rijk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rabbitisrich Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 HHC enterpise value is too tempting. Reducing cash pile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biaggio Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 management at LUK (wisely) sold a fair % of their significant holdings around 35, if we get lucky, we will soon be able to buy again under 20..... regards rijk LUK or CLF under$20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Anyone else buying? The forum seems dead. ??? Just bought some BAC at $5.63 and was hoping to switch some BRK to DELL & MSFT soon (like 2x 5% of my 75% position) but they remain to strong considering the upside and safety I get with BRK. Buybacks in full throttle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finetrader Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 That kind of shopping has been made for me. Next shopping phase will be if S&P500 goes below 1000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross812 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 I bought some BAC-PL shares for $737… The preferred shares are down but on no volume. L series have traded 20k shares today. The volume has been over 100k up to 250k on big moves in the past several months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted October 3, 2011 Author Share Posted October 3, 2011 Anyone else buying? The forum seems dead. ??? Just bought some BAC at $5.63 and was hoping to switch some BRK to DELL & MSFT soon (like 2x 5% of my 75% position) but they remain to strong considering the upside and safety I get with BRK. Buybacks in full throttle? I think some people were busy doing research and buying, while some were simply "sighing" after looking at their portfolio value, and some may have started to give up. It will probably get busier on here after the markets close. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted October 3, 2011 Author Share Posted October 3, 2011 By the way, we were buying! Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Not buying yet. My guess is people are only now starting to question earnings expectations for next year (and that they have to come down). Economically sensitive stuff is now getting hit (including the CAN$). When I see the 'safe' stuff (i.e. MSFT, ABT, KO etc) get hit hard then I will get greedy. Also, it looks like the S&P will be reaching a new low today... I am not a chart guy but I would expect this will create more negative sentiment in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opihiman2 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 I hate it when this board cheers on the noise instead of the trend (or signal), but I have to say ouch on BAC. Man, it sure must hurt to own it right now. I love seeing it cheaper, though. However, at the same time, I think the current price reflects the impending reversal of the yield curve. With all of its problems, I'm still on the fence on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 I bought a little today, but I don't have much cash. I'm sure the businesses I own have been allocating cash to bargains, though. :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Anyone else buying? The forum seems dead. ??? Just bought some BAC at $5.63 and was hoping to switch some BRK to DELL & MSFT soon (like 2x 5% of my 75% position) but they remain to strong considering the upside and safety I get with BRK. Buybacks in full throttle? I think some people were busy doing research and buying, while some were simply "sighing" after looking at their portfolio value, and some may have started to give up. It will probably get busier on here after the markets close. Cheers! Probably! http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG10YR:IND VXO close to 50 again. This just seems plain capitulation to me. Maybe we get it for another few months but it is capitulation nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted October 3, 2011 Author Share Posted October 3, 2011 VXO close to 50 again. This just seems plain capitulation to me. Maybe we get it for another few months but it is capitulation nonetheless. Who knows. But the more this happens, the more crappy hedge funds will disappear. It's all primarily a fear of what is happening in Europe than what is actually happening anywhere else, including the U.S. We are not ground zero! This is also not a mess of the U.S.' making, but one that Europe never took care of when the credit crisis occurred in 2008/2009. As difficult as it will be to get 17 heads of state to agree on something, they will make a concerted effort to rectify matters once push comes to shove and things get worse. Liquidity is already an issue there, and markets are swooning. The leveraged Europe TARP fund will become a reality after some more pain. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravi Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 10% invested, 90% to go. Looking for better bargains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 VXO close to 50 again. This just seems plain capitulation to me. Maybe we get it for another few months but it is capitulation nonetheless. Who knows. But the more this happens, the more crappy hedge funds will disappear. It's all primarily a fear of what is happening in Europe than what is actually happening anywhere else, including the U.S. We are not ground zero! This is also not a mess of the U.S.' making, but one that Europe never took care of when the credit crisis occurred in 2008/2009. As difficult as it will be to get 17 heads of state to agree on something, they will make a concerted effort to rectify matters once push comes to shove and things get worse. Liquidity is already an issue there, and markets are swooning. The leveraged Europe TARP fund will become a reality after some more pain. Cheers! I agree Parsad. I'm very glad I shifted 100% of my portfolio to USD, basically it saved me more than 10% with all the rumors in Europe, keeping my portfolio break-even for the year. I am sure we haven't seen the end yet but at the same time I am confident action will be taken over here without extreme consequences for the US and the rest of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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