FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.

[investorG]

why's the common under so much pressure?  those buffers could melt like butter when calabria is likely kicked out in mid 2021.

[Guest cherzeca]

why's the common under so much pressure?  those buffers could melt like butter when calabria is likely kicked out in mid 2021.

 

I take it you own common?

[DocSnowball]

 

 

I believe the only acknowledgement previously was Calabria's verbal statements.  I am not advising you on your position size lol

 

Let me say it in a different way. The goal of analyzing this piece of information is to make money right.

 

What are your views on the market reacting to this info? Mine are that there isn't much materially different than what we knew earlier. It's not that the security is undervalued; it is fairly valued given the risk of loss, and the capital rule release didn't change that much. Do you believe differently, or that the market is underreacting and there is money to be made out of trading this piece of news?

[SnarkyPuppy]

 

I believe the only acknowledgement previously was Calabria's verbal statements.  I am not advising you on your position size lol

 

Let me say it in a different way. The goal of analyzing this piece of information is to make money right.

 

What are your views on the market reacting to this info? Mine are that there isn't much materially different than what we knew earlier. It's not that the security is undervalued; it is fairly valued given the risk of loss, and the capital rule release didn't change that much. Do you believe differently, or that the market is underreacting and there is money to be made out of trading this piece of news?

 

Do you trade on every piece of incremental news that your companies report?  This is simply an incremental data point that is directionally consistent with the thesis.  It's obviously positive that the FHFA moved forward with the capital rule post-election (as projected) and that Bloomberg is reporting that an amendment is in the works (as projected). 

 

"It's not that the security is undervalued; it is fairly valued given the risk of loss".  You write this as if it's a statement of fact.  Clearly there are some in this thread that think the shares are materially undervalued.  You can assess your own risk of permanent loss of capital and likelihood of upside. 

[orthopa]

why's the common under so much pressure?  those buffers could melt like butter when calabria is likely kicked out in mid 2021.

 

Then how long until new FHFA director confirmed, replaced, new capital rule, new comment period etc. Thats way later for a new rule to go into place. Lots of dilution can happen by then.

[orthopa]

So you have a significant unknown (timing of capital plan) that has become known.  You have explicit references in the rule to a consent decree which will make the post inauguration transition concrete.  And you have a Bloomberg article (generally anti-shareholder publication) explicitly discussing active negotiations with respect to the PSPA amendment, which is no surprise to those following closely who have an ability to read. 

 

And then you have the preferreds trading at ~30-35% of Par.

 

I think today was a bigger read through day for the common with the capital levels are they are most affected by this. Final PSPA amendment gets us closer but CRP will obviously finish off final valuation +/- some arbitrage. Im adding more tomorrow.

[TonyG]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fannie-freddie-overseer-seeks-to-end-federal-control-before-trump-leaves-11605873600

 

complete 180 from last friday lol

[typicalvalue]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fannie-freddie-overseer-seeks-to-end-federal-control-before-trump-leaves-11605873600

 

complete 180 from last friday lol

 

Ya its hilarious.

 

“Mr. Calabria has met twice recently with Mr. Mnuchin to discuss an expedited exit of the companies from government control, most recently the week of Nov. 9, which also involved Larry Kudlow.”

 

“One person familiar with the effort said Mr. Mnuchin is supportive of locking in a path to private ownership but mindful of steps that could disrupt the housing-finance market.”

 

 

 

[Guest cherzeca]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fannie-freddie-overseer-seeks-to-end-federal-control-before-trump-leaves-11605873600

 

complete 180 from last friday lol

 

Ya its hilarious.

 

“Mr. Calabria has met twice recently with Mr. Mnuchin to discuss an expedited exit of the companies from government control, most recently the week of Nov. 9, which also involved Larry Kudlow.”

 

“One person familiar with the effort said Mr. Mnuchin is supportive of locking in a path to private ownership but mindful of steps that could disrupt the housing-finance market.”

 

you think Ackerman is being spoon fed? what a tool!

 

WHERE WAS GASPARINO'S SCOOP?

 

edit:  Ackerman's article reads to me like C/Mn made sure Ackerman would report only what they wanted him to report.  if I were C/Mn, I would want history to reflect that they had a hard time reaching agreement...to counteract the "everyone is on the same page" narrative.  anyone else get that?

 

[TonyG]

I got that same feeling. Trying to set the narrative of exactly that

[Guest cherzeca]

I got that same feeling. Trying to set the narrative of exactly that

 

right. Ackerman is too much of a tool not to be used as a tool by C/Mn.

 

the collins reply brief was due 11/23, filed 11/19.  you almost never see an early filing.  https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-422/161278/20201119155421721_11-19-20%20Collins%20Merits%20Reply.pdf

[SnarkyPuppy]

I got that same feeling. Trying to set the narrative of exactly that

 

right. Ackerman is too much of a tool not to be used as a tool by C/Mn.

 

the collins reply brief was due 11/23, filed 11/19.  you almost never see an early filing.  https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-422/161278/20201119155421721_11-19-20%20Collins%20Merits%20Reply.pdf

 

Anything to glean from an early filing?

[Guest cherzeca]

I got that same feeling. Trying to set the narrative of exactly that

 

right. Ackerman is too much of a tool not to be used as a tool by C/Mn.

 

the collins reply brief was due 11/23, filed 11/19.  you almost never see an early filing.  https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-422/161278/20201119155421721_11-19-20%20Collins%20Merits%20Reply.pdf

 

Anything to glean from an early filing?

 

it may just mean Collin's law firm is slammed by declines on other cases.  or it could mean something else...

[orthopa]

I got that same feeling. Trying to set the narrative of exactly that

 

right. Ackerman is too much of a tool not to be used as a tool by C/Mn.

 

the collins reply brief was due 11/23, filed 11/19.  you almost never see an early filing.  https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-422/161278/20201119155421721_11-19-20%20Collins%20Merits%20Reply.pdf

 

The article was certainly a trial ballon. This has been telegraphed for essentially years now so not sure why the MBS market would be suprised by this. I dont have access to an instrument to tell by pricing or otherwise if they were or will be "surpised" but I doubt that to be the case. Apparently Sherrod Brown has come out and said he thinks Mnuchin is the worst Treasury Secretary of all time so he wont lose any friends there by doing the PSPA.

 

Calabria has said that the lawsuits go away with the 4 PSPA and with the timing here that very likely maybe the case. For optics there may not be a "settlement" as much as plaintiffs drop the case no? It would be in their best interest depending what's in the 4th PSPA to preserve Calabria for as long as possible and let his removal play out through the legal system.

 

Someone please tell me if Im off on this but once there is a 4th PSPA within 30 days FHFA should request recap plan. FnF then have 45 days to respond and in turn FHFA has 60 days to approve. So we are looking out no further then 4.5 months from the PSPA amendment to know the final fate of the Jr Preferred. Hopefully sooner as one has to imagine JPM and MS have been sitting on plans for months and just tweaked it Wednesday night.

 

Worst case by middle of Q2 2021 we should finally know our fate.

 

 

[sholland]

Orthopa,

 

The exact answer to your question can be found here:

 

 

[Guest cherzeca]

I got that same feeling. Trying to set the narrative of exactly that

 

right. Ackerman is too much of a tool not to be used as a tool by C/Mn.

 

the collins reply brief was due 11/23, filed 11/19.  you almost never see an early filing.  https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-422/161278/20201119155421721_11-19-20%20Collins%20Merits%20Reply.pdf

 

The article was certainly a trial ballon. This has been telegraphed for essentially years now so not sure why the MBS market would be suprised by this. I dont have access to an instrument to tell by pricing or otherwise if they were or will be "surpised" but I doubt that to be the case. Apparently Sherrod Brown has come out and said he thinks Mnuchin is the worst Treasury Secretary of all time so he wont lose any friends there by doing the PSPA.

 

Calabria has said that the lawsuits go away with the 4 PSPA and with the timing here that very likely maybe the case. For optics there may not be a "settlement" as much as plaintiffs drop the case no? It would be in their best interest depending what's in the 4th PSPA to preserve Calabria for as long as possible and let his removal play out through the legal system.

 

Someone please tell me if Im off on this but once there is a 4th PSPA within 30 days FHFA should request recap plan. FnF then have 45 days to respond and in turn FHFA has 60 days to approve. So we are looking out no further then 4.5 months from the PSPA amendment to know the final fate of the Jr Preferred. Hopefully sooner as one has to imagine JPM and MS have been sitting on plans for months and just tweaked it Wednesday night.

 

Worst case by middle of Q2 2021 we should finally know our fate.

 

there may very well be some kabuki theater with this process, no settlement (for optics) but T going to scotus and saying collins is moot because 4th A...and if it is to be moot, Ps need to get everything they are asking for...or maybe there is some backchanneling so that Ps will agree case is moot if 4th A does X, but there won't be a formal settlement agreement with Ps.  once a 4thA is agreed to by fhfa and T, then yes fhfa can immediately ask for CRPs, which can be a part of a consent decree.

[COBFInfinity]

I got that same feeling. Trying to set the narrative of exactly that

 

right. Ackerman is too much of a tool not to be used as a tool by C/Mn.

 

the collins reply brief was due 11/23, filed 11/19.  you almost never see an early filing.  https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-422/161278/20201119155421721_11-19-20%20Collins%20Merits%20Reply.pdf

 

The article was certainly a trial ballon. This has been telegraphed for essentially years now so not sure why the MBS market would be suprised by this. I dont have access to an instrument to tell by pricing or otherwise if they were or will be "surpised" but I doubt that to be the case. Apparently Sherrod Brown has come out and said he thinks Mnuchin is the worst Treasury Secretary of all time so he wont lose any friends there by doing the PSPA.

 

Calabria has said that the lawsuits go away with the 4 PSPA and with the timing here that very likely maybe the case. For optics there may not be a "settlement" as much as plaintiffs drop the case no? It would be in their best interest depending what's in the 4th PSPA to preserve Calabria for as long as possible and let his removal play out through the legal system.

 

Someone please tell me if Im off on this but once there is a 4th PSPA within 30 days FHFA should request recap plan. FnF then have 45 days to respond and in turn FHFA has 60 days to approve. So we are looking out no further then 4.5 months from the PSPA amendment to know the final fate of the Jr Preferred. Hopefully sooner as one has to imagine JPM and MS have been sitting on plans for months and just tweaked it Wednesday night.

 

Worst case by middle of Q2 2021 we should finally know our fate.

 

there may very well be some kabuki theater with this process, no settlement (for optics) but T going to scotus and saying collins is moot because 4th A...and if it is to be moot, Ps need to get everything they are asking for...or maybe there is some backchanneling so that Ps will agree case is moot if 4th A does X, but there won't be a formal settlement agreement with Ps.  once a 4thA is agreed to by fhfa and T, then yes fhfa can immediately ask for CRPs, which can be a part of a consent decree.

 

If the SCOTUS case is not ended, one way or the other, and it is decided that the 3rd amendment needs to be overturned, can someone hostile to GSE recap come along and use the exact same legal arguments to overturn a 4th amendment?

[allnatural]

Doubtful because if shareholders win the APA claim in SCOTUS, it would be because the judges ruled that NWS violated HERA as it didnt follow the duties of a conservator. A potential 4th amendment does follow HERA as it would be trying to restore the GSEs to safety and soundness (the opposite of the NWS).

 

I got that same feeling. Trying to set the narrative of exactly that

 

right. Ackerman is too much of a tool not to be used as a tool by C/Mn.

 

the collins reply brief was due 11/23, filed 11/19.  you almost never see an early filing.  https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-422/161278/20201119155421721_11-19-20%20Collins%20Merits%20Reply.pdf

 

The article was certainly a trial ballon. This has been telegraphed for essentially years now so not sure why the MBS market would be suprised by this. I dont have access to an instrument to tell by pricing or otherwise if they were or will be "surpised" but I doubt that to be the case. Apparently Sherrod Brown has come out and said he thinks Mnuchin is the worst Treasury Secretary of all time so he wont lose any friends there by doing the PSPA.

 

Calabria has said that the lawsuits go away with the 4 PSPA and with the timing here that very likely maybe the case. For optics there may not be a "settlement" as much as plaintiffs drop the case no? It would be in their best interest depending what's in the 4th PSPA to preserve Calabria for as long as possible and let his removal play out through the legal system.

 

Someone please tell me if Im off on this but once there is a 4th PSPA within 30 days FHFA should request recap plan. FnF then have 45 days to respond and in turn FHFA has 60 days to approve. So we are looking out no further then 4.5 months from the PSPA amendment to know the final fate of the Jr Preferred. Hopefully sooner as one has to imagine JPM and MS have been sitting on plans for months and just tweaked it Wednesday night.

 

Worst case by middle of Q2 2021 we should finally know our fate.

 

there may very well be some kabuki theater with this process, no settlement (for optics) but T going to scotus and saying collins is moot because 4th A...and if it is to be moot, Ps need to get everything they are asking for...or maybe there is some backchanneling so that Ps will agree case is moot if 4th A does X, but there won't be a formal settlement agreement with Ps.  once a 4thA is agreed to by fhfa and T, then yes fhfa can immediately ask for CRPs, which can be a part of a consent decree.

 

If the SCOTUS case is not ended, one way or the other, and it is decided that the 3rd amendment needs to be overturned, can someone hostile to GSE recap come along and use the exact same legal arguments to overturn a 4th amendment?

[typicalvalue]

Seems that PSPA is close. Gasparino:

BREAKING on @FannieMae @FreddieMac $FNMA (1 of 2) — Housing and economic aides close to @JoeBiden are legitimately worried that @MarkCalabria and @stevenmnuchin1 will enact a GSE reform that will be difficult to unwind by new administration. It’s the reason why they are spreading

 

(2 of 2) that Mnuchin is jeopardizing his legacy at @USTreasury if he does something that screws up the housing market. Story developing $FMCC

 

[Gregmal]

Its amazing how these idiots had 4 years to do this and now its a last minute race against time that optically, looks bad....

[TonyG]

I agree, but no matter when they did it they were always going to face backlash. Time to die the cast..

[investorG]

Its amazing how these idiots had 4 years to do this and now its a last minute race against time that optically, looks bad....

 

They probably regret it too because it likely cost them the election -- less than 50k votes combined was the difference in az/ga/wi.

[DocSnowball]

Seems that PSPA is close. Gasparino:

BREAKING on @FannieMae @FreddieMac $FNMA (1 of 2) — Housing and economic aides close to @JoeBiden are legitimately worried that @MarkCalabria and @stevenmnuchin1 will enact a GSE reform that will be difficult to unwind by new administration. It’s the reason why they are spreading

 

(2 of 2) that Mnuchin is jeopardizing his legacy at @USTreasury if he does something that screws up the housing market. Story developing $FMCC

 

This is getting really interesting! Hoping and speculating we will see something concrete after all.

[DRValue]

Seems that PSPA is close. Gasparino:

BREAKING on @FannieMae @FreddieMac $FNMA (1 of 2) — Housing and economic aides close to @JoeBiden are legitimately worried that @MarkCalabria and @stevenmnuchin1 will enact a GSE reform that will be difficult to unwind by new administration. It’s the reason why they are spreading

 

(2 of 2) that Mnuchin is jeopardizing his legacy at @USTreasury if he does something that screws up the housing market. Story developing $FMCC

 

This is getting really interesting! Hoping and speculating we will see something concrete after all.

 

Setting up a scapegoat before there's even a problem on their (or Trump's...) watch.

[orthopa]

Seems that PSPA is close. Gasparino:

BREAKING on @FannieMae @FreddieMac $FNMA (1 of 2) — Housing and economic aides close to @JoeBiden are legitimately worried that @MarkCalabria and @stevenmnuchin1 will enact a GSE reform that will be difficult to unwind by new administration. It’s the reason why they are spreading

 

(2 of 2) that Mnuchin is jeopardizing his legacy at @USTreasury if he does something that screws up the housing market. Story developing $FMCC

 

This is getting really interesting! Hoping and speculating we will see something concrete after all.

 

Speculating? I don't know how much more this can be telegraphed at this point.