typicalvalue

New lawsuit that challenges the whole conservatorship in the COFC http://www.glenbradford.com/2021/10/fnma-fanniegate-1076/

Still waiting for the nomination, this week looked like the one, but "two weeks" mode on.

Seems like this is not over. Does anyone know Sandra Thompson views Re: Conservatorship if its finally elected as permanent director?

Yeah but what about listing requirements? And security offerings? anyway it may not mean anything at all.

Any view on this? https://careers.freddiemac.com/us/en/job/JR2254 "Experience drafting disclosure for periodic reports (Form 10-Ks, Form 10-Qs, and Form 8-Ks) and beneficial ownership reports filed with the SEC as well as disclosure documents for offerings of equity securities offerings." "Knowledge of listing requirements for national securities exchanges, such as NASDAQ or NYSE."

Anyone listening to this? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZMiksQvYmA What a clown show

http://www.glenbradford.com/2021/08/fnma-fanniegate-1065/ "The Fairholme Plaintiffs withdraw their Motion to Compel Production of Certain Documents". This looks weird.

CapWealth Tim Pagliara update post-SCOTUS

Agree. These are pricing as post NWS announcement yet: -GSEs still retaining capital and no profit sweep to TSY. -Financial advisors hired (who knows if they influence on pushing utility model recap) -Despite SCOTUS loss, Lamberth case and COFC look pretty good and the SCOTUS sentence made pretty clear that this is a takings case. Many shots on goal are left. -For me, Calabria being fired is a positive, it's nonsensical to have someone in front of the FHFA that does not fit with new admin objectives. I know that the next one could be Zandi (which is worse), but what if Wachter or Calhoun are hired? Market pessimism would shift fast. -Warrants due to expire in 2028, I don't think that this money will be left on the table. -TINA. GSEs are not going anywhere. I know that there is a lot of pessimism post-SCOTUS, and it was a disgrace, but this is not over. Trading at 6 cnts on the dollar any positive news should take us close to 15-20 cents at least.

Understand the frustation, started the journey on dec 2019, I've been holding for less than 2 years so not as burnt as many of you that've been holding for 10 years+ in an endless bull market. IRR on this investment has been awful and with so many headaches on the journey. My base case is that in 8 year timeframe if we reach par/exchange I get market beating returns on my portfolio (+15% IRR). Could be very well wrong and end this will continue to be an endless purgatory, but paying 20 cents on the dollar does not seem demanding. Also SCOTUS could be the catalyst we are waiting to force restructuring.

Thats my rationale. There is only a low possibility that kills me (recievership). This a perpetual option with strike at par when restructuring kicks in and many ways to win through judicial action if admin is not keen to recap the GSES. Willing to handle vol. Know many investors involved that are betting big, not just me (other than Glen Bradford ofc). Having said that huge concentration is risky. Also think that the amount of brain damage and work that this trade requires is not worthy if you don't make this at least 20% of your portfolio.

Added a bit on post Jan dip, this one represent 90% of my portfolio, so have few room to add more. Agree on your arguments, thats my base case right now. This month we will se how this ends.

Last Tim Pagliara interview https://tennesseestar.com/2021/03/24/cap-wealth-managements-tim-pagliara-talks-the-supreme-court-case-of-collins-v-mnunchin/

Another well written piece by Hindes on the path ahead. http://delawarebayllc.com/images/Time_for_a_fresh_look_2.pdf

The CS folk who informed you is wrong. Have all my funds in IB and you have access to all series of jrs FNMA/FMCC, so you shouldn't have any problem. You have to accept some trading permissions to buy OTC, and then you can trade it.

Seems like the Brookings paper is pretty aligned with Biden interests (by Gasparino source), and what was obvious that Calabria is toast posts-scotus.

I didnt see this TV, can you provide link? https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-Authorizes-More-than-$1-Billion-for-Affordable-Housing-Funds.aspx

FHFA is directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to contribute a record high $1.09 billion to the national Housing Trust Fund & Capital Magnet Fund, more than *double* the amount the GSEs contributed last year. The $ is distributed through Treasury & HUD to further affordable housing Still stealing money from the GSEs, the robbery has not ended...

Released https://www.realvision.com/identifying-sound-anti-bubble-trades-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac-live-with-michael-kao-and-tim-pagliara

Did anyone watch this? https://www.realvision.com/shows/live/videos/identifying-sound-anti-bubble-trades-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac-live-with-michael-kao-and-tim-pagliara

We are at 20% of par with Fairholme still digging in. If Supreme Court ruling is adverse and Fairholme decides to sell, we end up in much more "volatile purgatory". Since it is not a class action suit and not the only suit, there is little hope of settlement at this beyond late stage imho from Treasury standpoint. Obviously I'm not a lawyer but as a layperson what I am perceiving is that the NWS "nationalization" was obvious to the Court without any earnings/dividends going to company or shareholders in/after the third amendment, but how will they rule if they feel it was unlawful but not exactly meeting the legal criteria for the claim presented which is not a "takings" case and not even considered ripe anyway? Is 'unscrambling the egg" of NWS part of the Court's job in handling this case? Maybe not, but looking away in writing the verdict when private rights are expropriated doesn't seem the right precedent to set either. What I'm hoping for is that even if they don't reverse NWS to the original contract terms, which I seriously doubt they will, they rule in such a way as to ensure legal rights of private shareholders are protected going forward. This may be enough for market participants to close the gap between price and value. Feeling deeply uncomfortable using hope as an investment strategy here with hard earned money, but holding on. +1 right now hope is part of this investment I guess. What its beyond my understanding is how come Mark Calabria has not said a word since the PSPA was out, ~20 days and counting. Would love to see what are his views on this, even if pessimistic.

Thank you for all your work and help Christian, will take a look at it tomorrow

This last week I've been added some high dividend FMCC pdfs. Interesting R/R. If APA is a win in SCOTUS this could be a steal.

Capwelth Tim Pagliara GSE update

Calabria speaks today if i'm not confused right?