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allnatural

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  1. While accounting wise you are obviously correct, the 2 big differences between the 2 is in one case the cash sits on GSEs balance sheets and the Biden admin can't repurpose it for other uses, in the other case the cash in the the treasury's hand to do so with as they please.
  2. New round of PSPA: https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-and-Treasury-Suspending-Certain-Portions-of-the-2021-Preferred-Stock-Purchase-Agreements.aspx Key changes I see: 1) Unshrink some of the business activity Calabria tried to shrink- "The suspended provisions include limits on the Enterprises' cash windows (loans acquired for cash consideration), multifamily lending, loans with higher risk characteristics, and second homes and investment properties" 2) Commitment to keep building capital / no NWS 2.0 - "The Enterprises will continue to build capital under the continuing provisions of the PSPAs. FHFA also continues to direct the Enterprises to operate in a safe and sound manner consistent with their statutory mission" 3) Potential capital requirement rework (presumably to lower it)- "Additionally, FHFA is reviewing the Enterprise Regulatory Capital Framework and expects to announce further action in the near future." Net net 3 small incremental positives, put together and with potential news Calhoun nomination could set these back in motion.
  3. Seems like the people trying to derail it are the progressives more than anyone...
  4. If Calhoun is the pick, its a steal. If his nomination gets derailed, prob not.
  5. Don't think the current capital structure has ever been this out of wack: Jr Pfd market cap: $1.9b ($33b par value) Common market cap (including gov't warrants): $8.5b
  6. Here we go again... Calhoun is pro recap release into utility model + warrant monetization.
  7. FWIW Tim Howard finished listening to the rest of the oral arguments and his conclusion was in line with mine above, that the constitutional takings derivative claim should survive based off oral arguments.
  8. Lamberth is my favorite case as well (and much closer to ultimate resolution than the takings case).. Although i'm very curious to see how the Collins remand plays out based off the last briefing (especially since its back in the en banc hands with all 16 judges who have shown willingness to rule for shareholders already).
  9. That's the opinion yes. Not sure if fairholme argued for direct as well but their focus for now seems to be on the derivative claims where remedy could lead to write down of senior pfds.
  10. The appeal is from the court of federal claims. Shareholders are claiming that the NWS was violation of the 5th amendment for the taking of private property for public use without just compensation (the recent Collins decision affirmed the the NWS action by the FHFA is a government action taken for public benefit). Even if the NWS was allowed under HERA (like Collins ruled), you still have to give compensation for the takings. The original ruling by Judge Sweeney allowed the derivative claims to move forward and dismissed the direct claims. This oral argument was related to the appeal of both of those decisions. Should have a decision in the next 6 months. If shareholders survive the derivative claims we will move to trial.
  11. Keep in mind the only claims we want surviving is Fairholme's derivative claims (where the remedy would flow to the GSEs aka existing shareholders) vs all the other shareholders lawyers were arguing for direct claims (where the remedy would flow to shareholders who owned stock on day of NWS). The judges were very harsh re: direct claims (i think these all get dismissed / affirm Sweeney's ruling), but when it was the governments turn to speak they were tough on the lawyer re: derivative claim as they didn't seem to bite that there wasn't a conflict of interest if only the FHFA could ever sue the FHFA re: derivative claims. Of the 4 derivative claims being argued for, based off oral arguments today, I think the judges will reverse and dismiss all but the first one. • Just Compensation Under the Fifth Amendment for the Taking of Private Property for Public Use • Illegal Exaction Under the Fifth Amendment • Breach of Fiduciary Duty • Breach of Implied-in-Fact Contract Between the United States and the Companies
  12. Don't see any new language/commentary re: exiting conservatorship (or not).
  13. If anyone managed to pick the bottom this week (I was not), they would already be up ~30% in a few days time for FNMAS/FMCKJ. Not bad for dead money.
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