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allnatural

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  1. The calendar gets updated week of, to announce opinion dates. So expect no opinions this week, but nothing to read into for rest of May. June 30th is latest (57 days remaining and counting).
  2. Collins APA = Derivative Collins Constitutional = Derivative Court of Federal Claims Takings = Derivative Lamberth Contractual Claims = Direct
  3. ??? "Mnuchin said that case and other issues must be resolved before Fannie and Freddie could raise capital in private markets,"
  4. Re: Collins you have it backwards. There are 2 scenarios here: 1) Collins case is dropped (as a result of PSPA amendment and/or settlement). Calabria's job would be safe until this issue is re-litigated by Biden back to SCOTUS (probably sometime in 2022 as it would have to make its way through the DC circuit first). 2) Collins case isn't dropped (no PSPA/settlement). Calabria will be removable by Biden as soon as the Collins ruling is released (May-June). As you can see the Admin and Calabria have a large incentive to get rid of the Collins case during the lame duck. Regardless, the ear
  5. Doubtful because if shareholders win the APA claim in SCOTUS, it would be because the judges ruled that NWS violated HERA as it didnt follow the duties of a conservator. A potential 4th amendment does follow HERA as it would be trying to restore the GSEs to safety and soundness (the opposite of the NWS). right. Ackerman is too much of a tool not to be used as a tool by C/Mn. the collins reply brief was due 11/23, filed 11/19. you almost never see an early filing. https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-422/161278/20201119155421721_11-19-20%20Collins%20Merits%20Reply.pdf
  6. It also states that "FHFA plans to finalize the rule in the first quarter of FY 2021." Q1 FY 2021 = Q4 2020 (now)
  7. Assuming the final PSPA is similar to what Phillips had in mind and discussed earlier in the year.
  8. Bloomberg article titled "Fannie-Freddie Plan Could Face Race to Finish After Biden’s Win" this morning reported that a 4th amendment has been in the works for months now. "To avoid that outcome, shareholders’ fervent hope is that Mnuchin and Calabria before Jan. 20 come to terms on an amendment to Fannie’s and Freddie’s bailout agreements that Biden can’t unwind. Such an amendment could reduce the government’s massive stake in the companies, making it easier for shareholders to see a higher value on their own stock. Officials at the FHFA and Treasury Department have been working on such
  9. I think ACG is putting the settlement window out to June simply bc it lines up with the latest SCOTUS has to rule on the Collins case. But you would think if they have conviction of a 4th amendment in Q4, that 4th amendment would decide the final treatment of the snr pfds. Theoretically if a 4th amendment includes writing down the snr pfds and a tax credit for the excess payments, the government doesnt need to engage with or "settle" anything with shareholders. They are simply giving them the remedy shareholder desired and would have the result of making the Collins case irrelevant.
  10. Some HYMC discussion: https://creativedestructionmedia.com/news/markets/2020/07/10/check-in-with-cecchini-cecchinipeter-an-aura-of-treasure-gold-and-an-undiscovered-miner-in-the-nevada-desert-hycroft-mining-hymc/ ~1/3 of HYMC's deposits is Silver.
  11. I like the risk-reward as a flier option. Probably looking at a 1 down 10+ up risk/reward scenario. This specific asset traded at +1x NAV and 3b+ market cap in the last bull gold run. If you want to own a gold hedge, this is probably one of the cheapest ways I found to play it. Size appropriately! Something to keep in mind: $MUDS when deal was announced: - Gold: $1,400 - EV: $550m - P/NAV: 0.28x (comps @ 0.65x) $MUDS / $HYMC today (right after deal closed, not actually today): - Gold: $1,750 - EV: $550m - P/NAV: < 0.2x - GDX/GDXJ: 5 year highs + 1 extra quarter of surpassi
  12. rolg, if they find that CID was ratified, doesnt that mean that the CID action survives? if not why even bother remanding it and just say the CID action is void. the way i read the backwards looking remedy portion is that this all comes down to whether the challenged action (NWS in our case) was ratified or not by the new director. if it wasnt, it gets voided. did calabria ever ratify the NWS, not one sweep was made under his watch.
  13. No because a a pspa amendment converting the current $250b credit line to a catastrophic paid for backstop will act as an explicit backstop. What else would you want to see if you are a credit agency. Doesnt require congress and this option is highlighted in the admin GSE plan from last year. Those whalen arguments indicate that none of this is at it seems. There's no way each one has not been carefully considered by Calabria and Mnuchin, especially Mnuchin, and plans are in place to address them. That said, I'm backing off my opinion of no more govt backing because it doesn't seem pos
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