Sale of U.S. Treasuries Risk to FFH

[Spooky]

On 1/23/2026 at 10:39 PM, Txvestor said:

Trump will be gone in 3yrs but the effects of these actions by the Canadian leadership may end up being more long lasting. 

 

You do realize it is because of the actions of the Trump administration that we are doing this? Carney's stance might be too aggressive but he is at least trying to do what needs to get done to diversify and build more trading relationships. The US has weaponized the fact that it buys 75% of Canadian exports. It is a sane policy to enter into more free trade agreements and find new customers for products. If this was a business with such large customer concentration people would view that as too risky. The problem with Canada is that we have been too complacent for too long. We had a good thing going so no need to rock the boat but now the world has changed. It will be painful in the near term but worth it in the long run if we can pull it off.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Trump's position is to weaponise US demand, but then get upset when people recognize the threat of it being weaponized and diversify

 

I guess Trump expected people to thank him for putting a gun to their head instead of seeking ways out of the situation? 

[cwericb]

18 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Trump's position is to weaponise US demand, but then get upset when people recognize the threat of it being weaponized and diversify

 

I guess Trump expected people to thank him for putting a gun to their head instead of seeking ways out of the situation? 

 

It's like a jealous former lover. When going through a divorce years ago my (female) lawyer said to me.

"Don't let her see you with another woman. She may not want you but if she sees you with someone else she will be impossible to bargain with."

 

So in effect, the US is saying we don't to trade with you, but we don't want to see you trade with anyone else. 

[Txvestor]

I don't want to make this a US v Canada discussion. But there's a lot of people in the US not named Trump that believe that that most in the western alliance were freeloading on defense, pharma, finance, innovation and many other areas without doing their part. And then lecturing the US on health policy and so much else so as to rub salt into the wound. 
Anyway, back to the topic at hand, the world is changing and we shall see where the chips fall. I don't think repositioning with a bunch of smaller economies is gonna work out too well. 
as for treasuries, yes demand will fall, and it probably means structurally higher interest rates and a lower dollar. But if there is economic lift from reshoring and automation of industries perhaps it won't be as dramatic? We shall see. 

Edited January 31 by Txvestor

[anxon]

40 minutes ago, Txvestor said:

I don't want to make this a US v Canada discussion. But there's a lot of people in the US not named Trump that believe that that most in the western alliance were freeloading on defense, pharma, finance, innovation and many other areas without doing their part. And then lecturing the US on health policy and so much else so as to rub salt into the wound. 
Anyway, back to the topic at hand, the world is changing and we shall see where the chips fall. I don't think repositioning with a bunch of smaller economies is gonna work out too well. 
as for treasuries, yes demand will fall, and it probably means structurally higher interest rates and a lower dollar. But if there is economic lift from reshoring and automation of industries perhaps it won't be as dramatic? We shall see. 

Not meaning making this geopolitical but seriously.... But I am from a global south nation, from our view for the past 60+ years after WW2, it is mostly a bunch of transatlantic western powers that utilised a mix of economic sanctions or invasions, to bring ruins and deaths all over the world. Most of the times it doesnt even bring any benefit to your populace. These military adventurism or economic wars does't speak an ounce of human rights or freedom, whatever values your nations like to preach about. Just a group of white nations toying and bombing poor nations into ruins, robbing their resources clean, coups and elite captures etc.

The part on US hegemony..to attract alliance partners to help shoulder the cost of empire, the hegemon must demonstrate that it has the capability and the resolve to go it alone with or without allies.

 

The US has just demonstrated that it has neither the capability nor the resolve to maintain its empire and just wants to buck-pass costs onto partners. Partners are pissed because all they signed up for was to free-ride.

“If the correct geopolitical strategy is for the U.S. to not be overextended and overcommitted to establishing a world empire, then this strategy cannot ever even be articulated or the retreat becomes a rout.”
-Peter Thiel

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

10 hours ago, anxon said:

Not meaning making this geopolitical but seriously.... But I am from a global south nation, from our view for the past 60+ years after WW2, it is mostly a bunch of transatlantic western powers that utilised a mix of economic sanctions or invasions, to bring ruins and deaths all over the world. Most of the times it doesnt even bring any benefit to your populace. These military adventurism or economic wars does't speak an ounce of human rights or freedom, whatever values your nations like to preach about. Just a group of white nations toying and bombing poor nations into ruins, robbing their resources clean, coups and elite captures etc.

 

 

+1 

10 hours ago, anxon said:

The US has just demonstrated that it has neither the capability nor the resolve to maintain its empire and just wants to buck-pass costs onto partners. Partners are pissed because all they signed up for was to free-ride.

 

It's funny to me that the US is characterizing it as a free ride. It is the US that prints paper out of thin air and trades it for valuable goods/labor all around the world. 

 

We are given the free ride. And in exchange, we were expected to maintain global trade and enforce a global order for that trade to persist. 

 

Trump doesn't know the first thing about being a reserve currency, the advantages that has provided us, or how to maintain that advantage.

 

And maybe that's for the best for everyone else - because US foreign policy has been problematic for decades, as you've pointed out, and the checks and balances so weakened that another Trump could come alone and do the same things.  So maybe it's time someone else with a bit more wisdom to police the world, the global slowly replaced USD reserves at the margin, and the US can do some reflection and what is necessary internally to fix itself. 

 

[Intelligent_Investor]

Even if it is a free ride, us Americans need to accept that its the price we need to pay for global domination. Perhaps the question needs to be if the strategy of global domination is the right one, but if we believe that is the right strategy than this has to be a price we are willing to pay to extract the benefit.

[Haryana]

On 1/20/2026 at 10:57 AM, Haryana said:

Their well timed ventures in quality mining corps could provide a counterweight. 

I like their idea of getting more gold (ELD) in exchange for copper(FOM).

Copper is also considered undervalued, however, the monetary metal is gold.

As the markets are overextended, a correction would affect copper more than gold.

Major central banks are also diversifying away from treasuries by buying more gold. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

11 hours ago, Haryana said:

I like their idea of getting more gold (ELD) in exchange for copper(FOM).

Copper is also considered undervalued, however, the monetary metal is gold.

As the markets are overextended, a correction would affect copper more than gold.

Major central banks are also diversifying away from treasuries by buying more gold. 

 

Copper is where the secular growth is IMO. 

 

Your bullish on data centers? Cool. You need power/infrastructure. 

 

You're bullish on EVs? Cool. They need power/infrastructure and more copper inside the car. 

 

Your bullish on clean energy sources? Cool. They require copper. 

 

Copper is the secular bull market growth story if ANY of these narratives is true. Let alone all of them. Guys from Altius think copper has to hit $10/lb before you even begin incentivizing new exploration/production and then it takes years for the mines to come online. I want the $10/copper in the meantime. 

[Haryana]

https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/long-game-pays-off-as-gold-surpasses-sp-500-performance-over-30-years/articleshow/125719316.cms

[Marco Van Basten]

4 minutes ago, Haryana said:

https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/long-game-pays-off-as-gold-surpasses-sp-500-performance-over-30-years/articleshow/125719316.cms

This is such garbage.  Gold was at a generational bottom 30 years ago.  Now take a look at a 60 year chart.  I can cherry pick data too:  look at gold from 1979 till today vs S&P 500.  

[Duke In Shadows]

On 3/24/2026 at 10:19 PM, Marco Van Basten said:

This is such garbage.  Gold was at a generational bottom 30 years ago.  Now take a look at a 60 year chart.  I can cherry pick data too:  look at gold from 1979 till today vs S&P 500.  

you couldn't pay me to hold SPY today.