Fairfax 2026

[villainx]

1 hour ago, giulio said:

Having to do 1 post/video a week means DD is going to be shallow

 

I would hard disagree because there should be cumulative knowledge/expertise to rely upon, especially for "sophisticated" investors.

 

But I don't mean to trash too much - end of day, they are entertainment oriented, I guess.

[TG]

20 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Large institutional capital is either passive or has to beat the market in the short term. These days that means owning momentum. For a long time owning quality was good enough and that’s what most active investors own and screen for. Fairfax doesn’t pass their screens. I think it’s that simple. 

What made the market suddenly realize they're amazing at what they're doing post the lost decade? I've only been following FFH for a couple of years so I'd like to understand why all of a sudden the market decided to reward them with an 3x post 2022? I would assume a combination of cheap valuation (below BV) + better investment strategy + higher interest rates + buybacks?

I think pre-2022 the coverage and talk about FFH was even lower than it is today. And while many more people are familiar with the name today (maybe in search of a new BRK) so far that hasn't really have much of an effect. Probably the subdued growth due to softening markets leads to many investors skipping it?

[dartmonkey]

14 minutes ago, villainx said:

I would hard disagree because there should be cumulative knowledge/expertise to rely upon, especially for "sophisticated" investors.

 

But I don't mean to trash too much - end of day, they are entertainment oriented, I guess.

You're maybe going a little too easy on them - if I want entertainment, I would hardly listen to a spiel about a boring insurance company as an investment. And if you are going to do a serious service to investors, you have to at least get some basic facts straight like the ticker, where the major earnings are from, the threats and opportunities, basic details about the big holdings like Eurobank, Poseidon and Sleep Country and, if you have to mention something like Metlen with its P/E of 0.20 (which is actually a P/E of 20), fine, but get it right, especially if you have checked it twice (how do you do that, and still get it wrong?!)

 

As Viking says, it just goes to show that Fairfax is not easy for most retail investors.

 

Here's a much better effort, from Whitney Tilson, today: https://stansberryresearch.com/whitney-tilsons-daily/two-pitches-for-fairfax-financial

 

 

[djokovic1]

Yeah I like Whitney’s daily summaries. And he definitely understands the p&c insurance model ie valuing berkshire very well.
 

He was there at the Italy conference (he co-hosts it), he liked my Fairfax pitch and wanted to share it in his newsletter.

 

 

Edited 8 hours ago by djokovic1

[Duke In Shadows]

1 hour ago, villainx said:

 

I would hard disagree because there should be cumulative knowledge/expertise to rely upon, especially for "sophisticated" investors.

 

But I don't mean to trash too much - end of day, they are entertainment oriented, I guess.

most podcasts/content is entertainment masquerading itself as "research".

 

entertainment is fine just don't lie to yourself. there is a big difference between a book (or self reading financials) vs listening or watching passively to videos/podcast etc. One medium is clearly more entertainment focused. 

 

the gold standard imo for podcasts is Dave Senra (Founders), no Fairfax episode but has done Munger #329, Mark Leonard #246, Li Lu #362, Nick Sleep #365, et al. 40+ hours of reading per episode. my guess is these guys spent under 3 hours in an AI before the episode. 

 

[SafetyinNumbers]

3 hours ago, TG said:

I've only been following FFH for a couple of years so I'd like to understand why all of a sudden the market decided to reward them with an 3x post 2022?

Revenue, earnings, BVPS and price momentum. Interest income momentum slowed Q2 last year, gross premiums had been slowing. That’s when the multiple peaked. It’s unclear where the multiple will bottom during the soft market but there is reason to believe BVPS can grow 15-20%. One would think buyback will also help soak up supply.

[dartmonkey]

4 hours ago, TG said:

What made the market suddenly realize they're amazing at what they're doing post the lost decade? I've only been following FFH for a couple of years so I'd like to understand why all of a sudden the market decided to reward them with an 3x post 2022? I would assume a combination of cheap valuation (below BV) + better investment strategy + higher interest rates + buybacks?

 

Short answer:

 

 

The counterfactual: if the market had not decided to reward them with a 3x, they would now have a P/E multiple under 3. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

1 hour ago, dartmonkey said:

 

Short answer:

 

 

The counterfactual: if the market had not decided to reward them with a 3x, they would now have a P/E multiple under 3. 

The 202 is surprising. The $130 estimate for Q2 an analyst is expecting seems crazy. Anyone know who it is? Definitely set up to miss. Not sure if the market will care.

 

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

On 7/17/2026 at 12:28 PM, Eldad said:

Fairfax leverage is still fairly risky even if it’s float though right? If there is a really bad worldwide catastrophe event Fairfax could easily have its entire book equity taken to zero. BRK with 0.5 float leverage would likely be hurt badly but would immediately be maybe one of the few underwriters writing new business on earth. Am I wrong in thinking this? 

I think what could get FFH into trouble is 2 thing occurring at the same time - a bond and equity market crash and a bad combined ratio due to catastrophes spiking in a year. This happened in 2001/2002 for example.

Edited 3 hours ago by Spekulatius

[SafetyinNumbers]

4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I think what could get FFH into trouble is 2 thing occurring at the same time - a bond and equity market crash and a bad combined ratio due to catastrophes spiking in a year. This happened in 2001/2002 for example.

Balance sheet and reserves weren’t as strong back then were they?

[Txvestor]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

I think what could get FFH into trouble is 2 thing occurring at the same time - a bond and equity market crash and a bad combined ratio due to catastrophes spiking in a year. This happened in 2001/2002 for example.

That would be bad, it might cause a temporary $5-6B hit to equity(mark to market) and might even cause a negative eps year. Other insurers will very likely get hit even harder. 
However I'll ask a couple of Qs.

1) What do you think will be the response of the federal reserve in that scenario? 

2) What do you think will happen to insurance premiums 

3) What will happen to their bond yields/interest earnings once they opportunistically extend duration? 

 

It might get the stock price to fall maybe even get cut in half but I don't think it risks the company. And by the time 1-3 play out the EPS and valuation would be insane. 

[Parsad]

7 hours ago, djokovic1 said:

Yeah I like Whitney’s daily summaries. And he definitely understands the p&c insurance model ie valuing berkshire very well.
 

He was there at the Italy conference (he co-hosts it), he liked my Fairfax pitch and wanted to share it in his newsletter.

 

 

 

The one thing that could get Charlie Munger's eyes rolling was every time Whitney stood up to pose a question at the Berkshire meeting!

 

Also, where was Whitney when Fairfax was being shorted in 2003...who were the managers/journalists he was hanging out with back then?

 

Viking, Bsilly, LotsofCoke and a whole host of people understand insurance far better than Whitney!  No reflection on your Fairfax pitch, I'm sure it was good...but there's a reason he wanted to share it in his newsletter.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I think what could get FFH into trouble is 2 thing occurring at the same time - a bond and equity market crash and a bad combined ratio due to catastrophes spiking in a year. This happened in 2001/2002 for example.

 

1 hour ago, Txvestor said:

That would be bad, it might cause a temporary $5-6B hit to equity(mark to market) and might even cause a negative eps year. Other insurers will very likely get hit even harder. 
However I'll ask a couple of Qs.

1) What do you think will be the response of the federal reserve in that scenario? 

2) What do you think will happen to insurance premiums 

3) What will happen to their bond yields/interest earnings once they opportunistically extend duration? 

 

It might get the stock price to fall maybe even get cut in half but I don't think it risks the company. And by the time 1-3 play out the EPS and valuation would be insane. 

 

Fairfax in past years was built to withstand a Category 5 Hurricane hitting Orlando, an 8.0 Earthquake hitting Los Angeles, and a 50% drop in the S&P500...all happening in the same year!

 

That was years ago...they are in far better financial shape today and their portfolio is more than well-positioned for any such scenario.  

 

The stock would get hit like anything else, but they would make more money at the end of the day as Txvestor alluded to.

 

Right now, intrinsic value increases quarterly just about, and Mr. Market is not taking that into consideration.  Once they recognize it, and it may be a ways off, the surge will be similar to what we saw in the past few years.  Perhaps not quite that dramatic as it was trading at 0.6 times book, but the market will recognize the increase in intrinsic value over the next few years as they continue to compound it!  It's inevitable!  Cheers!