Fairfax 3.0

[adventurer]

On 3/10/2025 at 9:12 PM, Dazel said:

yes it is.

 

I do not think Fairfax 3.0 remains under $2000 (cdn) to much longer and may never see the price gain in its lifetime. Pretty sure there was a lot of technical selling today as per above. Berkshire and Chubb finished green. Fairfax 3.0 should trade in tandem with those two as a defensive moving forward. There is no one per share that benefits more from this pullback than Fairfax…bonds up big today.

What do you think speaks against the possibility of the stock moving further south? Especially in times of (a tiny bit at least) turmoil? 

[nwoodman]

27 minutes ago, adventurer said:

What do you think speaks against the possibility of the stock moving further south? Especially in times of (a tiny bit at least) turmoil? 

Damn, that voting machine….it get’s me every time. If you are under the age of 25 you get a free pass btw

[Hamburg Investor]

I am just all in (from my perspective) with 43% Fairfax Financial and nearly 2% extra in Fairfax India. Is it a pity, that I can't buy more just right now? Not really. 

For one: Prem buys back shares for me anyhow. So his buybacks are my profits anyway. 

For two:

With what I had, I was able to buy much cheaper. So it was good not to keep ANY ‘dry powder’, but to ALWAYS be all in with the investable budget in FFH within the last years imho.

What is 4 months when investing? I think that's (almost) nothing. But it's only been four months since Fairfax Financial was consistently cheaper to buy then today; and it's only been 4.5 months since Fairfax was 7% cheaper; and before that it was very much cheaper very quickly. So the little bit of growth in intrinsic value in those short 4.5 months (maybe 5% to over 8%?), that was already reflected in the price then, when we compare it to todays situation: Fairfax was as cheap then as it is now relative to IV; and before it was much (much?) cheaper. So anyone having dry powder for over 4,5 months until now and not having invested back then, hasn't done so good in my eyes, but only has had luck - of course only as long as it was clear to that person, that Fairfax was a great investment back then.

But you have to bear in mind the risk of not having been invested during this time. And that's a really high risk imho. If it is true that Fairfax Financial is (very) cheap at the moment (which I believe), then it makes no sense to wait for it to become even cheaper. I don't think a lot of people have been profiting within the last years by trying to time Fairfax. It just went up and always very rare came back and then it's been for a very short time. It's just gone up, up, up sind end of 2022.

A very good investment that you can buy cheaply is like a very stretched rubber band: it is very likely to shoot forwards and this can happen very quickly. It doesn't make much sense to speculate that such a strongly stretched rubber band will become much tighter or could be folded for a long time in that situation. The arm holding it (even if it's Mr. Markets arm) will eventually become limp and will no longer be able to hold the pressure. The comparison is probably moderate, but I hope you get my point. 

Not doing the right thing one is very quickly caught in the trap of constantly waiting for setbacks that never come and all the time the dry powder is lying around instead of compounding.

We all know the stories of Buffett and Munger about the biggest mistakes they ever made: When asked, they keep (kept) citing situations where they didn't buy even though they could see that an investment could be good. Gayner often talks about how he bought his first shares of BRK far too late, and many other value investors tell similar stories. I was able to buy Lotus Bakeries for 400 Euro 10 years ago (or so); now it's 12.000 Euro or so. Since that happened and I was "thumb sucking", I now, what Buffett meant. And each time I drink a coffee and they put this little caramel cake to the coffee, I get remembered.

What else is it then thumb sucking to have dry powder lying unused while having discovered an investment (in my case FFH) that one sees as a once in a lifetime opportunity and isn't going all in, but holding something back? What is one waiting for when looking at a very good or even once-in-a-lifetime investment? What is one waiting for? For an even better investment or an even better price? Really? If the dry powder is investable, then I invest; if it's not investable (but needed for my financial security), then of course it's not to touch (in fact it isn't dry powder then). 

Of course, it's a little bit different if you are constantly expecting new cash flows that you can reinvest (which is not the case for me at the moment). It's totally clear, that one is happy then, buying on the cheap. But Fairfax has been cheap today and all days before within the last years, so I don't see any point "actively waiting" for a cheaper entry - the risk of missing this opportunity is just far too big in my eyes.

[adventurer]

8 minutes ago, Hamburg Investor said:

I am just all in (from my perspective) with 43% Fairfax Financial and nearly 2% extra in Fairfax India. Is it a pity, that I can't buy more just right now? Not really. 

For one: Prem buys back shares for me anyhow. So his buybacks are my profits anyway. 

For two:

With what I had, I was able to buy much cheaper. So it was good not to keep ANY ‘dry powder’, but to ALWAYS be all in with the investable budget in FFH within the last years imho.

What is 4 months when investing? I think that's (almost) nothing. But it's only been four months since Fairfax Financial was consistently cheaper to buy then today; and it's only been 4.5 months since Fairfax was 7% cheaper; and before that it was very much cheaper very quickly. So the little bit of growth in intrinsic value in those short 4.5 months (maybe 5% to over 8%?), that was already reflected in the price then, when we compare it to todays situation: Fairfax was as cheap then as it is now relative to IV; and before it was much (much?) cheaper. So anyone having dry powder for over 4,5 months until now and not having invested back then, hasn't done so good in my eyes, but only has had luck - of course only as long as it was clear to that person, that Fairfax was a great investment back then.

But you have to bear in mind the risk of not having been invested during this time. And that's a really high risk imho. If it is true that Fairfax Financial is (very) cheap at the moment (which I believe), then it makes no sense to wait for it to become even cheaper. I don't think a lot of people have been profiting within the last years by trying to time Fairfax. It just went up and always very rare came back and then it's been for a very short time. It's just gone up, up, up sind end of 2022.

A very good investment that you can buy cheaply is like a very stretched rubber band: it is very likely to shoot forwards and this can happen very quickly. It doesn't make much sense to speculate that such a strongly stretched rubber band will become much tighter or could be folded for a long time in that situation. The arm holding it (even if it's Mr. Markets arm) will eventually become limp and will no longer be able to hold the pressure. The comparison is probably moderate, but I hope you get my point. 

Not doing the right thing one is very quickly caught in the trap of constantly waiting for setbacks that never come and all the time the dry powder is lying around instead of compounding.

We all know the stories of Buffett and Munger about the biggest mistakes they ever made: When asked, they keep (kept) citing situations where they didn't buy even though they could see that an investment could be good. Gayner often talks about how he bought his first shares of BRK far too late, and many other value investors tell similar stories. I was able to buy Lotus Bakeries for 400 Euro 10 years ago (or so); now it's 12.000 Euro or so. Since that happened and I was "thumb sucking", I now, what Buffett meant. And each time I drink a coffee and they put this little caramel cake to the coffee, I get remembered.

What else is it then thumb sucking to have dry powder lying unused while having discovered an investment (in my case FFH) that one sees as a once in a lifetime opportunity and isn't going all in, but holding something back? What is one waiting for when looking at a very good or even once-in-a-lifetime investment? What is one waiting for? For an even better investment or an even better price? Really? If the dry powder is investable, then I invest; if it's not investable (but needed for my financial security), then of course it's not to touch (in fact it isn't dry powder then). 

Of course, it's a little bit different if you are constantly expecting new cash flows that you can reinvest (which is not the case for me at the moment). It's totally clear, that one is happy then, buying on the cheap. But Fairfax has been cheap today and all days before within the last years, so I don't see any point "actively waiting" for a cheaper entry - the risk of missing this opportunity is just far too big in my eyes.

Thank you.

[Cod Liver Oil]

I know they are different animals, but do you guys think FFH or FIH is more attractive at these prices?

[Hsmpanl]

14 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

I know they are different animals, but do you guys think FFH or FIH is more attractive at these prices?

I'm a buyer of both but like FIH better at these prices. More uncertainty but lower base to grow off of. Very conservative marks to market and a discount to book value makes it highly attractive. I own more FFH than FIH and think the near term outlook is bright for it as well.