dwy000 Posted February 3 Posted February 3 1 minute ago, wisdom said: Watching this thread over time - even Trumps most ardent supporters can’t justify what he is doing in their name to their allies who stand by US unconditionally- screwing us over in order to do a Putin on us. So they keep changing the reasons or the discussion to rationalize what he is doing in their name to us. Fascinating to observe even the most intelligent people committing mental gymnastics to justify stupidity. If Putin had done the same to a neighbouring country/ally they would have been pontificating on why Russia needs to be stopped. RONALD REAGAN (1988): "We should be aware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends, weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag." When you're too right wing for Reagan, it might be too late.
cubsfan Posted February 3 Posted February 3 1 minute ago, wisdom said: Watching this thread over time - even Trumps most ardent supporters can’t justify what he is doing in their name to their allies who stand by US unconditionally- screwing us over in order to do a Putin on us. So they keep changing the reasons or the discussion to rationalize what he is doing in their name to us. Fascinating to observe even the most intelligent people committing mental gymnastics to justify stupidity. If Putin had done the same to a neighbouring country/ally they would have been pontificating on why Russia needs to be stopped. You're welcome. Continue to take your free ride on defense provided by the USA. Watch the country spend $800B on defense, while Canada spends $8B. No problem at all. And as a big thank you to the US - send us your fentanyl and illegals - knowing you don't want them in your country. Talk about mental gymnastics. You take the cake.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 3 Posted February 3 (edited) 7 minutes ago, wisdom said: Watching this thread over time - even Trumps most ardent supporters can’t justify what he is doing in their name to their allies who stand by US unconditionally- screwing us over in order to do a Putin on us. You're giving his followers too much credit. Remember - they re-elected him after seeing the results of his first 4 years. Facts don't get in the way of their opinions. 7 minutes ago, wisdom said: Fascinating to observe even the most intelligent people committing mental gymnastics to justify stupidity. It really is.... Some of the smartest people I know don't hold Trump to the same intellectual rigor they hold anyone else to. Crazy how politics turns the brain off. 7 minutes ago, wisdom said: If Putin had done the same to a neighbouring country/ally they would have been pontificating on why Russia needs to be stopped. Tribalism trumps rationality - unfortunately Hypocrisy is a hallmark of the evangelical right. They're terrified of "Sharia law", but aim to enforce their own interpretation of the Bible on everyone. It's not about principles or freedom or tolerance - it's about enforcing their way of life ok everyone else. Edited February 3 by TwoCitiesCapital
wisdom Posted February 3 Posted February 3 (edited) Cubs Would recommend learning a bit more. Growing never hurt anyone. A bit of humility never hurt anyone. you are welcome too Edited February 3 by wisdom
sleepydragon Posted February 3 Posted February 3 Can someone explain why bitcoin and ether tanking? What does these have to with tariff?
cubsfan Posted February 3 Posted February 3 5 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: I dunno. S&P earnings free 10.5% annualized. The index itself was 9% annualized. Seems pretty far from hell? Obama's figures far outperformed both Trump's and Bush's. Was that also hell? Or evidence of his obvious cognitive decline.... I don't disagree with you here. Few elections have been so impacted by the highschool dropouts..... I love that you call it "my" party. I've voted right or third party every election of my life....until Trump. A candidate that stands for absolutely NONE of the traditional Republican values. But yes - me and my left wing WSJ friends who believe facts matter and the DJT has already proved himself to be a shit president should create a new party now that DJT has co-opted the right with zero principals to stand on. Family values? Yes - let's ask the guy with three failed marriages who was banging porn stars while married. Balanced budgets? Yes! Let's elect the self described "debt guy" who ran a casino into the ground and ran the largest deficits we've ever seen without a war or recession to blame them on. Small government? Yes! Let's elect the guy who believes in governing via executive order and coming into your classroom, your bedroom, and your boardroom with government politics. So Republican of him. Go ahead - blame it on the uneducated losers in America who voted him in. Good to hear from a RINO, since you hate Trump. Unfortunately Mitt Romney and the other RINOs never did shit for the middle class - so they lost total control to the MAGA movement. I'm sure you can't wait for a repeat of the last 4 years. Unfortunately for you, the rest of us decided to move on - and kick the bums out.
wisdom Posted February 3 Posted February 3 Bitcoin has no value. When the market loses confidence it ends. Ponzi’s only last while liquidity is high and speculators are confident.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 3 Posted February 3 (edited) 4 minutes ago, sleepydragon said: Can someone explain why bitcoin and ether tanking? What does these have to with tariff? They're "risk-on" "pro-growth" assets for the time being. Political/trade uncertainty threatens that. While BTC is uncorrelated from stocks - it still follows the mantra of "in a crisis - correlations go to 1". It dropped dramatically in both 2020 and 2022 Edited February 3 by TwoCitiesCapital
Lazarus Posted February 3 Posted February 3 1 hour ago, enoch01 said: This may be the most exciting thread since the GFC days. And sadly Pasad is going to close it at midnight. With an annoying "Cheers!"
dwy000 Posted February 3 Posted February 3 3 minutes ago, sleepydragon said: Can someone explain why bitcoin and ether tanking? What does these have to with tariff? Risk off.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 3 Posted February 3 1 minute ago, wisdom said: Bitcoin has no value. When the market loses confidence it ends. Ponzi’s only last while liquidity is high and speculators are confident. It didn't end in 2009. Or 2014. Or 2018. Or 2022. Every decline has bottomed higher and every top has topped higher. Why do you believe this time will be different?
cubsfan Posted February 3 Posted February 3 5 minutes ago, wisdom said: Cubs Would recommend learning a bit more. Growing never hurt anyone. A bit of humility never hurt anyone. you are welcome too ???? Whatever you say...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 3 Posted February 3 3 minutes ago, cubsfan said: Go ahead - blame it on the uneducated losers in America who voted him in. I didn't need your permission - but glad I have it.
wisdom Posted February 3 Posted February 3 Just now, TwoCitiesCapital said: It didn't end in 2009. Or 2014. Or 2018. Or 2022. Every decline has bottomed higher and every top has topped higher. Why do you believe this time will be different? Because we were still in QE and free money stage from 2008. Trump may help it end if he takes this far enough. To be seen. Buffett building $300 B plus in cash is a sign things are about to change and have reached an extreme.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 3 Posted February 3 (edited) 3 minutes ago, wisdom said: Because we were still in QE and free money stage from 2008. Trump may help it end if he takes this far enough. To be seen. Buffett building $300 B plus in cash is a sign things are about to change and have reached an extreme. I'm sorry, but QE ended in 2018. Don't you remember the higher rates and the breaking of the overnight repo markets? We had 2-years of QT until COVID hit. Bitcoin didn't go to 0. And we've been in a period of rising rates and falling liquidity for like the last 12-18 months. And BTC went up 4-5x. I think you need to rework your model. Edited February 3 by TwoCitiesCapital
wisdom Posted February 3 Posted February 3 (edited) 3 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: I'm sorry, but QE ended in 2018. We had 2-years of QT until COVID hit. Bitcoin didn't go to 0. And we've been in a period of rising rates and following liquidity for like the last 18 months. And BTC went up 4-5x. I think you need to rework your model. The amount of liquidity injected after Covid is still in the system. We haven’t withdrawn it all but the tariffs could help end it soon. If all the crypto’s and S&P 500 along with talk of US exceptionalism is still on when this happens then I will be wrong. To be seen. Edited February 3 by wisdom
Parsad Posted February 3 Posted February 3 46 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Remember when the guy Biden some of you voted for folded like a cheap suit on dairy and then Trudeau took a few victory laps? This was what? Less than two years ago? Tables have turned I guess I didn't vote for Biden or Trudeau...I also didn't vote for Trump! Cheers!
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 3 Posted February 3 (edited) 3 minutes ago, wisdom said: The amount of liquidity injected after Covid is still in the system. We haven’t withdrawn it all but the tariffs could help end it soon. If all the crypto’s and S&P 500 along with talk of US exceptionalism is still on when this happens then I will be wrong. To be seen. Lets make it more interesting. Let's say BTC falls ~40% to $60k. Are you still wrong on it having no value outside of liquidity? Because it's still at $60k? Or are you right on it having "no value" because it fell significantly but still retained significant value? Edited February 3 by TwoCitiesCapital
wisdom Posted February 3 Posted February 3 (edited) Yes - I would be wrong as I do not believe it has any value to society. I don’t know anyone whose life is better because of bitcoin other than those who own it and want others to buy it. It needs greater fools to continue. Edited February 3 by wisdom
Gregmal Posted February 3 Posted February 3 lol so we re 2% off and its cuz the bubble is popping and clearly Bitcoin is worthless again….oh man I love it!
wisdom Posted February 3 Posted February 3 I am not talking about a day or 2. I am talking about this playing out to the end when we get some decent amount of capital destruction. To be seen.
Parsad Posted February 3 Posted February 3 42 minutes ago, james22 said: Well for one, there's actually a money laundering technique known as the Vancouver Model: The Vancouver Model is the name anti-money laundering experts gave to a unique model observed in Vancouver, Canada. It involves taking illicit cash earned through crime to a casino (often a VIP room), and gambling some of the proceeds. The chips are then cashed out of the casino as clean cash. To further obfuscate the funds in a money laundering process known as layering, the funds are then used to buy assets such as real estate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_laundering_In_Canada Canada has become a safe zone for the world’s most notorious crime groups and threat networks that are harming Canada’s national security and imperiling the security of other nations,” warns a report published in late November by the International Coalition Against Illicit Economies (ICAIE). https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/canada-a-safe-haven-for-transnational-crime-networks-and-their-dirty-money-u-s-report “Greater Vancouver has acted as a laundromat for foreign organized crime, including a Mexican cartel, Iranian and Mainland Chinese organized crime,” the German report said. “The region has acquired an unenviable reputation for serving as a site for money laundering, drug trafficking, and capital flight.” https://financialpost.com/real-estate/billions-in-dirty-cash-helped-fuel-vancouvers-housing-boom The network of an elite Chinese Mafia suspect with significant industrial assets in British Columbia has been implicated “in recent RCMP investigations of CCP police stations in Canada, and other countries,” according to a sweeping new report from a United States anti-corruption NGO. The report cites a collection of stunning cases and statistics to argue that transnational criminal networks with ties to China, Iran and Russia are using Canada to launder tens of billions annually, and related economic and political operations are undermining safety and democracy in the West. https://archive.ph/vJpJO#selection-593.0-615.285 Try using updated information...100 fold decrease in casino money laundering since the government took measures to crackdown on it. Cheers! https://financialcrimeacademy.org/the-vancouver-model-canadian-casinos-and-money-laundering/
wisdom Posted February 3 Posted February 3 (edited) 10 minutes ago, wisdom said: Yes - I would be wrong as I do not believe it has any value to society. I don’t know anyone whose life is better because of bitcoin other than those who own it and want others to buy it. It needs greater fools to continue. I would add it is virtually like religion. That is why hodlers spend so much time convincing and arguing for it as they need more believers and of course it helps them believe even more, the more they repeat their reasons. it is always the same - nothing new. They are in reality trying to convince themselves. Edited February 3 by wisdom
Eng12345 Posted February 3 Posted February 3 (edited) In other comedic news. My wife is not big into finance/money management but she’s been trying to learn more. She’s reading a pretty basic book that’s oriented toward her profession. I opened it up out of curiosity to her marked page and it was the whole section on not to try “market timing”. Thought it was a good piece of irony with tomorrows events . Maybe it’s a hint Edited February 3 by Eng12345
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 3 Posted February 3 11 minutes ago, wisdom said: I don’t know anyone whose life is better because of bitcoin other than those who own it and want others to buy it. It needs greater fools to continue. Sound a lot like the USD
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