Eff You Money

[73 Reds]

28 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

All of this is addressed, in detail, in the crypto thread.

 

BTC is backed by crowd sourced CPU power, BTC protocol, and a cap on the maximum number of BTU that can be produced. It exists so that central bankers can never take your wealth away from you; whether by confiscation, intentional inflation, currency controls, or a visit to the graveyard. And so good a technological alternative to fiat currency, that central bankers around the world have been forced to add competitive payment alternatives such as Central Bank Digital Currency (ie: eYuan).

 

Back in the day we got around on horse and buggy, then motorcars were invented ....  today, the horse and buggy lives in an outdoor museum. Change.

 

SD 

We agree on the reason it exists - fear.  Precisely the reason I wouldn't buy it.  

[ICUMD]

3 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

And so good a technological alternative to fiat currency, that central bankers around the world have been forced to add competitive payment alternatives such as Central Bank Digital Currency (ie: eYuan).

India has also initiated a digital payment system called UPI.  Settlement is in rupees.  

 

Crypto/ BTC are distinct from digital national currencies.  I do think most countries will migrate towards digital settlement, but in their own digital currency.  

 

Visa/ MasterCard are intermediaries which take fees, but settle in base currency of the card holder. They will need to compete with fee less digital settlement platforms.

 

Now, if there was a central crypto currency legitimately backed by gold, that would be interesting. Say each 'digital coin' was tied to a callable ounce of gold... 

 

[SharperDingaan]

3 hours ago, ICUMD said:

India has also initiated a digital payment system called UPI.  Settlement is in rupees.  

 

Crypto/ BTC are distinct from digital national currencies.  I do think most countries will migrate towards digital settlement, but in their own digital currency.  

 

Visa/ MasterCard are intermediaries which take fees, but settle in base currency of the card holder. They will need to compete with fee less digital settlement platforms.

 

Now, if there was a central crypto currency legitimately backed by gold, that would be interesting. Say each 'digital coin' was tied to a callable ounce of gold... 

 

 

Quite agree, but the big issue for financial services is that without the credit/debit card business, everybody is a lot smaller ... there is a lot less privacy, a lot less financial services employment, and a lot more competition for the remaining business. When everyone has a transaction free account at the central bank; social welfare recipients also no longer need cheque cashing, migrants no longer have to pay high fees to wire money back home, and it's possible to see exactly where money is going .... inclusive of a time and date stamp.  It will come; but nation-wide 'willing adoption' is a real crap-shoot.

 

SD

Edited Friday at 10:16 PM by SharperDingaan

[Parsad]

9 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

All of this is addressed, in detail, in the crypto thread.

 

BTC is backed by crowd sourced CPU power, BTC protocol, and a cap on the maximum number of BTU that can be produced. It exists so that central bankers can never take your wealth away from you; whether by confiscation, intentional inflation, currency controls, or a visit to the graveyard. And so good a technological alternative to fiat currency, that central bankers around the world have been forced to add competitive payment alternatives such as Central Bank Digital Currency (ie: eYuan).

 

Back in the day we got around on horse and buggy, then motorcars were invented ....  today, the horse and buggy lives in an outdoor museum. Change.

 

SD 

 

With global warming, the world may be going back to horse and buggy! 

 

Also, Bitcoin may be the horse and buggy of what is yet to come...and with the speed of change in technology, it may come far faster than the demise of the horse and buggy.

 

Cheers!

[Parsad]

5 hours ago, ICUMD said:

India has also initiated a digital payment system called UPI.  Settlement is in rupees.  

 

Crypto/ BTC are distinct from digital national currencies.  I do think most countries will migrate towards digital settlement, but in their own digital currency.  

 

Visa/ MasterCard are intermediaries which take fees, but settle in base currency of the card holder. They will need to compete with fee less digital settlement platforms.

 

Now, if there was a central crypto currency legitimately backed by gold, that would be interesting. Say each 'digital coin' was tied to a callable ounce of gold... 

 

 

This would be no different than what is happening presently...nation states could still issue unlimited amounts of fiat currency.  It would just be in digital form.  Bitcoin and most crypto are deflationary assets and built around a limited amount of supply.

 

At some point, the world will need a global currency and it obviously cannot be any single fiat currency.  I would imagine at that point some form of crypto would be adopted.  Is it Bitcoin?  Often the first and largest to appear is not what wins and lasts.  On occasion it does.  Only time will tell!  Cheers!

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 1/2/2025 at 12:33 PM, 73 Reds said:

I for one don't know what the number of tokens has to do with the value of something that doesn't generate anything and is not otherwise "interesting".  Independent of a market built purely on speculation, 1 token and 1 billion tokens does precisely the same thing for me (nothing).  

 

If Ferrari produced 14 million vehicles a year instead of 14 thousand - how much do you think they'd be able to charge for each vehicle? 

[ICUMD]

1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

If Ferrari produced 14 million vehicles a year instead of 14 thousand - how much do you think they'd be able to charge for each vehicle? 

I've seen Bitcoin compared to pizza.

Now Ferraris.

 

What about comparing Bitcoin to the emperor's new clothes?  At least both of those are invisible and infinitely divisible, yet perform the same function  

[TwoCitiesCapital]

22 minutes ago, ICUMD said:

I've seen Bitcoin compared to pizza.

Now Ferraris.

 

What about comparing Bitcoin to the emperor's new clothes?  At least both of those are invisible and infinitely divisible, yet perform the same function  

 

 

The real comparison - nearly a decade of absolutely trouncing the performance of one the best performing stocks...

 

 

 

 

Edited Saturday at 02:51 AM by TwoCitiesCapital
edited image

[ICUMD]

@TwoCitiesCapital No doubt it has had exceptional performance to date.

 

At 100k, it's not really a consideration for me since I'm unable to value investor sentiment and enthusiasm in this space.

 

For others, I'm sure they're in it for the million dollar price target.

 

[73 Reds]

12 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

If Ferrari produced 14 million vehicles a year instead of 14 thousand - how much do you think they'd be able to charge for each vehicle? 

Who buys a Ferrari merely for transportation?  We're talking around each other.  There is no way (NONE) to put a "value" on BTC other than a greater fool's theory.  Likewise there is no way I'd buy an "investment" that requires a greater fool's theory for price support.  Human psychology is certainly a "thing", but since it is wholly unnecessary for investment success, why bother?  

[boilermaker75]

On 1/1/2025 at 12:05 PM, james22 said:

 

 

 

 

[james22]

11 hours ago, ICUMD said:

At 100k, it's not really a consideration for me since I'm unable to value investor sentiment and enthusiasm in this space.

 

If it were easy to value, there'd be no opportunity.

 

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

There is no way (NONE) to put a "value" on BTC other than a greater fool's theory.

 

1. One can look at the size of the gold market and assume a superior substitute will grow to at least equal that size.

 

2. One can look at the size of the ESG market and assume Blackrock can sell a superior product to at least equal that size.

 

3. One can look at digital/tech adoption curves and assume it'll grow to be worth more.

 

4. One can bet that 15 years of momentum won't end this year (of catalysts) and it'll return you more than your best idea.

 

5. One can bet that investor sentiment and enthusiasm in this space has room to run.

 

Etc, etc.

 

Again, the opportunity exists because it's not so easily recognized by traditional valuation tools.

 

There's a reason Buffett missed all the great digital transformation companies. 

 

(You don't believe Value investing is easy just because you've the tools, do you?)

[TwoCitiesCapital]

13 hours ago, ICUMD said:

@TwoCitiesCapital No doubt it has had exceptional performance to date.

 

At 100k, it's not really a consideration for me since I'm unable to value investor sentiment and enthusiasm in this space.

 

For others, I'm sure they're in it for the million dollar price target.

 

 

So you were buying it at $20k in 2022? Or at $5k in 2020? Because I'm going to guess the sentiment was similar then even at those local lows and I'm going to guess the sentiment will be the same when it's at $250k. But I'd be happy for you to prove me wrong. 

 

3 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Who buys a Ferrari merely for transportation?  We're talking around each other.  There is no way (NONE) to put a "value" on BTC other than a greater fool's theory.  Likewise there is no way I'd buy an "investment" that requires a greater fool's theory for price support.  Human psychology is certainly a "thing", but since it is wholly unnecessary for investment success, why bother?  

 

We aren't talking about transportation? Your comment was that you didn't understand how limiting to 21 million coins has anything to do with value. It seems you understand the concept of scarcity as it relates to Ferrari and their relative values, but won't apply the same concept to monies and their relative values? 

Edited Saturday at 05:46 PM by TwoCitiesCapital

[73 Reds]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

 

If it were easy to value, there'd be no opportunity.

 

 

1. One can look at the size of the gold market and assume a superior substitute will grow to at least equal that size.

 

2. One can look at the size of the ESG market and assume Blackrock can sell a superior product to at least equal that size.

 

3. One can look at digital/tech adoption curves and assume it'll grow to be worth more.

 

4. One can bet that 15 years of momentum won't end this year (of catalysts) and it'll return you more than your best idea.

 

5. One can bet that investor sentiment and enthusiasm in this space has room to run.

 

Etc, etc.

 

Again, the opportunity exists because it's not so easily recognized by traditional valuation tools.

 

There's a reason Buffett missed all the great digital transformation companies. 

 

(You don't believe Value investing is easy just because you've the tools, do you?)

The only "bet" or "assumption" needed for investment success is cash flow and profits.  You're betting on greater fools.  

[73 Reds]

13 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

So you were buying it at $20k in 2022? Or at $5k in 2020? Because I'm going to guess the sentiment was similar then even at those local lows and I'm going to guess the sentiment will be the same when it's at $250k. But I'd be happy for you to prove me wrong. 

 

 

We aren't talking about transportation? Your comment was that you didn't understand how limiting to 21 million coins has anything to do with value. It seems you understand the concept of scarcity as it relates to Ferrari and their relative values, but won't apply the same concept to monies and their relative values? 

No, folks who appreciate a car for more than a vehicle buy Ferraris.  They are willing to pay up.  (Doesn't mean I'd buy a Ferrari unless I appreciated the uniqueness.)  Same with anything else that can be uniquely appreciated.  BTC possesses no unique quality other than a substitute for what already exists and there is nothing there for most people to appreciate other than a frenzy that will eventually die out just like every other frenzy.  The fact that Wall Street is marketing BTC says more about Wall Street than it does about BTC.

[james22]

23 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

The only "bet" or "assumption" needed for investment success is cash flow and profits.  You're betting on greater fools.  

 

By the time most Growth stocks have cash flow and earnings, the greatest opportunity is long past.

 

21 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

BTC possesses no unique quality other than a substitute for what already exists and there is nothing there for most people to appreciate other than a frenzy that will eventually die out just like every other frenzy. The fact that Wall Street is marketing BTC says more about Wall Street than it does about BTC.

 

It certainly has the unique quality of upsetting value investors like no other growth opportunity.

[james22]

 

[73 Reds]

7 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

By the time most Growth stocks have cash flow and earnings, the greatest opportunity is long past.

 

 

It certainly has the unique quality of upsetting value investors like no other growth opportunity.

@James, that's just completely wrong.  I am never early to invest in anything (at least that I didn't create).  First share of BRK was 1983.  First share of MSFT 1989.  Early 1990s for HD.  AAPL and WMT long after these were household names.  Even Fairfax was 2021.  I'm no investment genius.  Just requires discipline and patience.      

Edited Saturday at 06:41 PM by 73 Reds
spelling

[james22]

 

[james22]

10 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

@James, that's just completely wrong. 

 

Tell that to every venture capitalist and angel investor.

[james22]

30 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Just requires discipline and patience.      

 

You can do well Value investing, of course.

 

I'm not even arguing Growth investing is superior (necessarily).

 

I'm only arguing that insisting on viewing all opportunities thru a value lens excludes many with the highest potential.

 

Amazon wasn't a Ponzi! for the 10 years before it showed a profit.

[73 Reds]

2 hours ago, james22 said:

 

You can do well Value investing, of course.

 

I'm not even arguing Growth investing is superior (necessarily).

 

I'm only arguing that insisting on viewing all opportunities thru a value lens excludes many with the highest potential.

 

Amazon wasn't a Ponzi! for the 10 years before it showed a profit.

But its not just "value investing", not even sure what that means, exactly.  Appealing equity investments have elements of both value and growth.  The proportion of these elements in any given stock may change over time but the real challenge is not believing that any such change is a bad thing.  Pretty much everything I've learned about investing came from Buffett/Munger:  The goal of buying stocks that ideally never have to be sold; avoiding too much decision-making; the leverage of deferred capital gains and avoidance of unnecessary capital gains taxes; the value of a moat and the importance of dominance of your competitors; thinking about stocks as real businesses and not pieces of paper; and yes, the importance of intrinsic value.   These principles are timeless.  I apply them to my own businesses and private investment holdings.  They don't require greater fools for success because when you begin with an intended "forever" time horizon, the price at any time thereafter is irrelevant.  All that matters are desirable operational results and distributions from those holdings which pay them.   

[james22]

39 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

They don't require greater fools for success . . .

 

Did Amazon rely on greater fools for success?

[TwoCitiesCapital]

4 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

No, folks who appreciate a car for more than a vehicle buy Ferraris.  They are willing to pay up.  (Doesn't mean I'd buy a Ferrari unless I appreciated the uniqueness.)  Same with anything else that can be uniquely appreciated.  BTC possesses no unique quality other than a substitute for what already exists and there is nothing there for most people to appreciate other than a frenzy that will eventually die out just like every other frenzy.  The fact that Wall Street is marketing BTC says more about Wall Street than it does about BTC.

 

This is precisely where you're wrong. 

 

Never before has there been a monetary asset with a perfectly inelastic supply that can't be manipulated by politicians

Never before has is been so easy to send that wealth anywhere in the world with settlement times of ~10 minutes for less than the cost of a bank wire

Never before has there been such an easy/cheap way to secure such a large portion of wealth

 

Bitcoin has plenty of unique qualities that no other "money" currently has. 

 

4 hours ago, james22 said:

It certainly has the unique quality of upsetting value investors like no other growth opportunity.

 

Lol

[ICUMD]

@james22 @TwoCitiesCapital nothing wrong with seeing BTC and crypto as opportunity.  That's what makes a free market.

 

After making a series of mistakes, I've come to understand the a key tenant of investing is understanding valuation and your entitlement to future cash flows of a business. This strategy has worked extremely well for me over the last 5 yrs.

 

Bitcoin is none of the above.

Myself, @73 Reds Buffet and many others see it as a collectible since it fails the above criteria.  But as a collectible, it's value is directly tied to what another person will pay for it. 

 

And if owning 1/21 million (or fraction there of) exclusive binary code gets your mojo going, power to you.  You are definitely in good company and maybe it doubles again in 2025.  Or maybe it will redistribute money to the crypto whales who decide to 'cash' out. 

 

I'm ok sitting on the sidelines watching my old fashioned dividends come in.  In the collectible category, I'd rather own a manual Porsche or rare Rolex. At least I can see and use them.