Eff You Money

[Luke]

30 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

LOL  You'd know obnoxious.

 

I only reply to bitcoin posts in threads other than the named. I didn't introduce it here.

 

And investors should focus on making (eff you) money, not discussing businesses.

 

They'll miss opportunities otherwise.

LOL, so what will you come up this year then? Send everyone tweets on how your art collecting did 110% a year? Pokemon card collecting? Is that what COBF is about?

[SharperDingaan]

In the spirit of the New Year; some passing comment, before closing down this discussion on BTC.

 

Much as in the Muppet Show; this board has its heckling old geezers in the balcony, through to the many various characters taking turns on the stage. Each with their own reasons for participating, and the end product as an entertaining and educational training tool. Through the magic of technology, and voluntary curation, we're collectively able to create 'magic' ... and we collectively see the benefits of that in the annual performance post.

 

Just as in hockey, everyone has to raise their game, when everyone routinely plays against the best in friendlies. Playing against one Gretzky is one thing, playing against a whole lot of them? ... bring it on! We have a number of posters on this board with very good crypto expertise, and many from the business versus the purely technical side; that is rare, and it behoves one to act on what they post.  

 

Whether one understands it or not; BTC is mainstream, and the globe is in the early stages of rolling it out. BTC as a form of cash equivalent, availability of BTC futures/options on the CME, multiple central banks moving to strategic reserves of BTC, BTC made accessible to the masses via the BTC-ETF, China and Europe retail participation as well as North American, recommended minimum portfolio weightings at 2-5%, regulatory update, easier distribution, etc, etc. BTC/BTC-ETF has become the ultimate momentum 'stock'; the pace of change in the roll out driving the price predictions. We get the astronomical numbers because all this demand falls on a maximum possible supply of 21M BTC token.

 

Earn a 40% before-tax CAGR on BTC for 5 years, and today's $1 turns into tomorrows $5.37; today's small weighting to BTC also takes over the portfolio as it is growing at a much faster pace than the rest of the portfolio. And, as a small amount invested ... grows into more than many might save over an entire working life; the fear is that even if I am ignorant on BTC, I have to be in it .... and it's the South Sea Bubble, Tulip Mania, etc. ... all over again. It's more comforting to deny it, and the more obvious it becomes the more aggressive the push back. It's just people being people.

 

It isn't WEB, within North America we have the greatest wealth transfer in history going on, and some people are going to get very wealthy indeed; hence, all the interest around charitable donation. Sadly, it's also going to destroy a great many families, as unless aware as to how to manage it - wealth at this level is toxic.

 

Entertainment is great, but too much of it is also toxic; everything in moderation.  

 

Happy New Year!

 

SD   

Edited Wednesday at 02:53 PM by SharperDingaan

[james22]

25 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

. . . wealth at this level is toxic.

 

If we could return to the topic, this was what was suggested by the video.

 

I've dealt with hundreds or thousands of investors from all shapes and sizes and once you get past a certain point there's so much stress that comes with the money and you feel like it's a responsibility and you're worried about heirs and family members . . .

 

$10M is from my experience is about the Sweet Spot in terms of being able to be very happy with a large amount of money but not enough money where it's going to cause you other outside stresses.

[ICUMD]

Fact is, for people who chase money, there is no satisfactory level.  Even Jeff Bezos is jealous of Musk. Yet Musk was f u even before he had money.

 

F u is an attitude, not a monetary level. 

[73 Reds]

50 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

In the spirit of the New Year; some passing comment, before closing down this discussion on BTC.

 

Much as in the Muppet Show; this board has its heckling old geezers in the balcony, through to the many various characters taking turns on the stage. Each with their own reasons for participating, and the end product as an entertaining and educational training tool. Through the magic of technology, and voluntary curation, we're collectively able to create 'magic' ... and we collectively see the benefits of that in the annual performance post.

 

Just as in hockey, everyone has to raise their game, when everyone routinely plays against the best in friendlies. Playing against one Gretzky is one thing, playing against a whole lot of them? ... bring it on! We have a number of posters on this board with very good crypto expertise, and many from the business versus the purely technical side; that is rare, and it behoves one to act on what they post.  

 

Whether one understands it or not; BTC is mainstream, and the globe is in the early stages of rolling it out. BTC as a form of cash equivalent, availability of BTC futures/options on the CME, multiple central banks moving to strategic reserves of BTC, BTC made accessible to the masses via the BTC-ETF, China and Europe retail participation as well as North American, recommended minimum portfolio weightings at 2-5%, regulatory update, easier distribution, etc, etc. BTC/BTC-ETF has become the ultimate momentum 'stock'; the pace of change in the roll out driving the price predictions. We get the astronomical numbers because all this demand falls on a maximum possible supply of 21M BTC token.

 

Earn a 40% before-tax CAGR on BTC for 5 years, and today's $1 turns into tomorrows $5.37; today's small weighting to BTC also takes over the portfolio as it is growing at a much faster pace than the rest of the portfolio. And, as a small amount invested ... grows into more than many might save over an entire working life; the fear is that even if I am ignorant on BTC, I have to be in it .... and it's the South Sea Bubble, Tulip Mania, etc. ... all over again. It's more comforting to deny it, and the more obvious it becomes the more aggressive the push back. It's just people being people.

 

It isn't WEB, within North America we have the greatest wealth transfer in history going on, and some people are going to get very wealthy indeed; hence, all the interest around charitable donation. Sadly, it's also going to destroy a great many families, as unless aware as to how to manage it - wealth at this level is toxic.

 

Entertainment is great, but too much of it is also toxic; everything in moderation.  

 

Happy New Year!

 

SD   

@SD, I think you may be mistaking "many" posters on this board with a handful or two of outspoken Crypto supporters.   This old geezer has never before felt the need to invest in momentum stocks and I certainly don't intend to start now.  Happy New Year to you too!

[Milu]

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

@SD, I think you may be mistaking "many" posters on this board with a handful or two of outspoken Crypto supporters.   This old geezer has never before felt the need to invest in momentum stocks and I certainly don't intend to start now.  Happy New Year to you too!

What is a momentum stock anyway, is it just something that goes up a lot, or can a stock that goes down a lot also be called a momentum stock. For example is Nvidia a momentum stock, Amazon, or how about Meta? Genuinely curious as I've always questioned why people bucket stocks into Value, Growth, Momentum and decided to focus or avoid certain buckets.

[james22]

 

[73 Reds]

55 minutes ago, Milu said:

What is a momentum stock anyway, is it just something that goes up a lot, or can a stock that goes down a lot also be called a momentum stock. For example is Nvidia a momentum stock, Amazon, or how about Meta? Genuinely curious as I've always questioned why people bucket stocks into Value, Growth, Momentum and decided to focus or avoid certain buckets.

I'd define a momentum stock (or asset) as one whose movement is based solely on a greater fool's theory.  In other words, pure speculation.

[SharperDingaan]

Investopedia has a fairly useful definition  https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/081501.asp

Momentum is the speed or velocity of  price changes in a stock, security, or trade-able instrument. Momentum shows the rate of change in price movement over a period of time to help investors determine the strength of a trend. Stocks that tend to move with the strength of momentum are called momentum stocks.

 

Beloved of the technical analyst, and the curse of the fundamentalist! Momentum trading is just a different approach; if it results in a whack of additional FU money that one can simply give away, so much the better.

 

SD

[Parsad]

16 hours ago, ICUMD said:

Fact is, for people who chase money, there is no satisfactory level.  Even Jeff Bezos is jealous of Musk. Yet Musk was f u even before he had money.

 

F u is an attitude, not a monetary level. 

 

It's definitely a monetary level.  You can have the attitude, but that won't do you much good if you tell your boss to eff himself and you have only $10K in the bank with a wife and baby waiting at home. 

 

Mortgage/rent needs to be paid...diapers need to be bought...food needs to be in the fridge...heat and light need to be on...water needs to be running...gas needs to be in the tank with payment made if you are financing or leasing.  In that case, F U hits the family not the asshole boss!  Cheers!

[Viking]

On 12/31/2024 at 2:42 PM, Gregmal said:

Bitcoin for its entire existence has been summed up as believers spreading the word because they’ve made a fortune vs non believers making fun of them for not making the fortune “the right way”. 

+1 (bitcoin is in my ‘too hard’ pile.)

Edited Thursday at 08:30 AM by Viking

[Red Lion]

Momentum trading would be a strategy and value stock would be a stock selling below its fair value. 

 

I believe that investors can and have made boatloads of money by momentum trading value stocks.

 

I have recently been dabbling more and more with an approach which has a little hint of momentum bias where one would select a basket of seemingly attractive stocks. Harvest short term losses on the ones that don't work out and reinvest in other seemingly attractive stocks.

 

Don't double down on losers, ever.

 

Consider increasing positions on winners even when it means increasing your cost basis per share and even around all time highs, but only when the business fundamentals are strong and improving, and valuation remains reasonable or even improving.

 

Never Sell? Match gains to tax losses to reinvest in the next best ideas? Sell half the position when a stake doubles, and then let the rest ride for the long term?

 

The selling part is the hard part, and I've certainly left a lot of gains on the table by poor selling discipline or selling too soon. I've significantly improved my returns though by trying to feed the winners and weed the losers. I think very good long term returns will require adding to winners and holding.

 

Sometimes a stock that's beating the market continues to be a great investment. Sometimes a stock will bump against an all time high while the fundamental value keeps increasing. I've seen several of these situations before breakouts with long time compounders.  

[Viking]

14 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

Momentum trading would be a strategy and value stock would be a stock selling below its fair value. 

 

I believe that investors can and have made boatloads of money by momentum trading value stocks.

 

I have recently been dabbling more and more with an approach which has a little hint of momentum bias where one would select a basket of seemingly attractive stocks. Harvest short term losses on the ones that don't work out and reinvest in other seemingly attractive stocks.

 

Don't double down on losers, ever.

 

Consider increasing positions on winners even when it means increasing your cost basis per share and even around all time highs, but only when the business fundamentals are strong and improving, and valuation remains reasonable or even improving.

 

Never Sell? Match gains to tax losses to reinvest in the next best ideas? Sell half the position when a stake doubles, and then let the rest ride for the long term?

 

The selling part is the hard part, and I've certainly left a lot of gains on the table by poor selling discipline or selling too soon. I've significantly improved my returns though by trying to feed the winners and weed the losers. I think very good long term returns will require adding to winners and holding.

 

Sometimes a stock that's beating the market continues to be a great investment. Sometimes a stock will bump against an all time high while the fundamental value keeps increasing. I've seen several of these situations before breakouts with long time compounders.  

@Red Lion, well said. Your post is full of juicy stuff. I agree with much of it. Like Druckenmiller says “be inquisitive and be open minded”. Psychology is a bigger problem than brains for most investors.

 

My favourite part of what you had to say: ”The selling part is the hard part, and I've certainly left a lot of gains on the table by poor selling discipline or selling too soon. I've significantly improved my returns though by trying to feed the winners and weed the losers. I think very good long term returns will require adding to winners and holding.”

Edited Thursday at 09:06 AM by Viking

[james22]

All investing is value investing.

 

Most investments (bitcoin included) begin as speculative.

 

Only as they prove themselves do they become Growth.

 

And as they mature into their market and lose momentum they might become Value.

 

 

[Parsad]

53 minutes ago, james22 said:

All investing is value investing.

 

Most investments (bitcoin included) begin as speculative.

 

Only as they prove themselves do they become Growth.

 

And as they mature into their market and lose momentum they might become Value.

 

 

 

No, that doesn't really work when you're attempting an intrinsic value calculation for gold/commodities, artwork/collectibles or bitcoin/crypto.

 

Even when Buffett was speculating on silver back in the late 90's, he based it on a speculative ratio between gold and silver...that was not investing...nor what most today would call "value" investing.  

 

Crypto would definitely fall into speculative or contrarian...not the typical definition of "value". 

 

I also love this quote by Frank Giustra on crypto..."It's an asset in search of a purpose and has no tangible anything to it." 

 

Cheers!

[Blake Hampton]

56 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

No, that doesn't really work when you're attempting an intrinsic value calculation for gold/commodities, artwork/collectibles or bitcoin/crypto.

 

Even when Buffett was speculating on silver back in the late 90's, he based it on a speculative ratio between gold and silver...that was not investing...nor what most today would call "value" investing.  

 

Crypto would definitely fall into speculative or contrarian...not the typical definition of "value". 

 

I also love this quote by Frank Giustra on crypto..."It's an asset in search of a purpose and has no tangible anything to it." 

 

Cheers!

I wonder just how far someone could go in trying to value an asset such as oil itself. There’s certainly geopolitical factors to understand, but I’ve never heard anyone I deem legit say they could tell where future oil prices would be. I’m assuming the same applies for the other listed assets as well.

Edited Thursday at 10:58 AM by Blake Hampton

[james22]

3 hours ago, Parsad said:

No, that doesn't really work when you're attempting an intrinsic value calculation for gold/commodities, artwork/collectibles or bitcoin/crypto.

 

Gold matured into its recognized "intrinsic" value long ago. Likewise silver, and why Buffett could believe some ratio had been established between the two.

 

The work of living artists is speculated upon, the works of passed artists usually has a consensus-established "intrinsic" value. 

 

Bitcoin/crypto was speculative (you may believe it is still). But as (if) it manages to prove itself, it'll grow into its "intrinsic" value.

 

3 hours ago, Parsad said:

I also love this quote by Frank Giustra on crypto..."It's an asset in search of a purpose and has no tangible anything to it." 

 

I shouldn't take the bait, but . . . 

 

Purpose: protecting economic value

 

Tangible: strongest computer network in the world

 

[james22]

3 hours ago, Parsad said:

Crypto would definitely fall into speculative or contrarian...not the typical definition of "value". 

 

What's your definition of value?

 

The method by which you determine something's future value?

 

That seems a pretty minor point of differentiation from speculators and Growth investors who also believe they invest in things that will be worth more in the future than it is now.

[Blake Hampton]

1 minute ago, james22 said:

 

What's your definition of value?

 

The method by which you determine something's future value?

 

That seems a pretty minor point of differentiation from speculators and Growth investors who also believe they invest in things that will be worth more in the future than it is now.

I would start with a use-case.

 

The price of oil is inherently speculative, but at its base, oil is one of the most important items powering the global economy.

[james22]

5 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

I would start with a use-case.

 

The price of oil is inherently speculative, but at its base, oil is one of the most important items powering the global economy.

 

Sure, the appropriate method differs by case.

 

As a mature (adopted) source of energy, supply/demand (and growth of both) drives most oil valuation.

[Blake Hampton]

9 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Sure, the appropriate method differs by case.

 

As a mature (adopted) source of energy, supply/demand (and growth of both) drives most oil valuation.

I’m not trying to be rude when I ask this, but what honestly is the use for Bitcoin?

[SharperDingaan]

2 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

I’m not trying to be rude when I ask this, but what honestly is the use for Bitcoin?

 

You might want to move this conversation to the crypto thread, where there are numerous posts around this. Valuing BTC is no different to trying to value a relationship, where there ALSO isn't a future cash flow to present value. Inflation protection is the major usage case for BTC, not the trying to pay for something.

 

SD  

[73 Reds]

5 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

You might want to move this conversation to the crypto thread, where there are numerous posts around this. Valuing BTC is no different to trying to value a relationship, where there ALSO isn't a future cash flow to present value. Inflation protection is the major usage case for BTC, not the trying to pay for something.

 

SD  

Who values a relationship in dollar terms?  There are a lot of ways to protect yourself against inflation.  The issue is how and why does BTC uniquely protect you against anything?

Edited Thursday at 02:53 PM by 73 Reds
spelling

[linus_md]

Why don't you move this there? 

Edit: missed @SharperDingaan comment.

 

[Saluki]

7 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

It's definitely a monetary level.  You can have the attitude, but that won't do you much good if you tell your boss to eff himself and you have only $10K in the bank with a wife and baby waiting at home. 

 

Mortgage/rent needs to be paid...diapers need to be bought...food needs to be in the fridge...heat and light need to be on...water needs to be running...gas needs to be in the tank with payment made if you are financing or leasing.  In that case, F U hits the family not the asshole boss!  Cheers!

 

Yes, with no commitments you don't need much eff you money.  When I was in my early 20s I saw a co-worker quit when a terrible boss with a Napoleon/little man complex tried berating him on the sales floor. It was epic.  "Listen. I don't like you. I don't like your people. I don't like the way you run this place, and I don't like the way the you're talking to me."