President-Elect Trump trades

[Blake Hampton]

8 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Lmfao, the 1-5 year column? Add it up?

 

What Is Intermediate or Medium-Term Debt?

Medium-term (also referred to as intermediate) debt is a type of bond or other fixed-income security that has a maturity date set for between two and 10 years. Bonds and other fixed-income products tend to be classified by their maturity dates, as it is the most important variable in the yield calculations.

 

Once again, how is this short duration?

[Blake Hampton]

Does Bitcoin also count as short duration?

[Gregmal]

And see this is the thing, this shouldn’t be construed as insulting, it should be taken as educational. Less time on macro and more time studying and getting familiar with specific businesses and industries…an insurance company having a large allocation to investment grade debt instruments with 5 or less years to maturity is hardly noteworthy, and definitely would never be one’s primary stated reason for immediately writing one off. It’s like insurance investing 101.
 

Instead you roundaboutly state that all you need to see is “half bonds”, and that because you believe inflation will be crazy(it won’t be btw) and that in your previous experience in 2022, bonds did terrible with inflation(except inflation happened pre 2022), it’s immediately a no go. Pretty much all these armchair conclusions are wrong and simple novice level mistakes that a little bit of effort can fix and make you a better investor. No need to get mad unless you’re married to your emotional investment in that outlook.

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

What Is Intermediate or Medium-Term Debt?

Medium-term (also referred to as intermediate) debt is a type of bond or other fixed-income security that has a maturity date set for between two and 10 years. Bonds and other fixed-income products tend to be classified by their maturity dates, as it is the most important variable in the yield calculations.

 

Once again, how is this short duration?

See the above. Quoting investopedia or whatever almost certainly just proved my point. More time on industry specific investing will fix this. 

[Malmqky]

Why exactly is the issue @Blake Hampton with the bond portfolio? What are you thinking could happen/what worries you?

[Malmqky]

Why exactly is the issue @Blake Hampton with the bond portfolio? What are you thinking could happen/what worries you?

 

EDIT: apologies for "why" instead of "what" and the double-post which I apparently can't delete.

Edited 21 hours ago by Malmqky

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, Malmqky said:

Why exactly is the issue @Blake Hampton with the bond portfolio? What are you thinking could happen/what worries you?

He doesn’t understand how a 5 year bond would trade and thinks they’d tank like the headlines said bonds did in 2022. Also thinking cash would be a safe haven even though the underlying thesis he has is that inflation will ramp, which….is terrible for cash lol

[Blake Hampton]

20 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

And see this is the thing, this shouldn’t be construed as insulting, it should be taken as educational. Less time on macro and more time studying and getting familiar with specific businesses and industries…an insurance company having a large allocation to investment grade debt instruments with 5 or less years to maturity is hardly noteworthy, and definitely would never be one’s primary stated reason for immediately writing one off. It’s like insurance investing 101.
 

Instead you roundaboutly state that all you need to see is “half bonds”, and that because you believe inflation will be crazy(it won’t be btw) and that in your previous experience in 2022, bonds did terrible with inflation(except inflation happened pre 2022), it’s immediately a no go. Pretty much all these armchair conclusions are wrong and simple novice level mistakes that a little bit of effort can fix and make you a better investor. No need to get mad unless you’re married to your emotional investment in that outlook.

I do respect the advice. I think that you have a great mindset when it comes to putting in the work, but I also think that you are largely discounting the current risks in the system.

 

The Treasury market literally failed in 2020 and no one batted an eye. Now we're in a period where the fiscal problem is dramatically worse, we have a felon as our president, markets generally are the most overvalued they've ever been, and once again, no one seems to understand or even care.

Edited 21 hours ago by Blake Hampton

[Blake Hampton]

Warren Buffett has a Master's in economics and has a better understanding of this stuff than probably every single Congress person. I would make a large bet that he's quite worried as well.

 

But he's also 94, so maybe not too worried.

Edited 21 hours ago by Blake Hampton

[Gregmal]

7 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

I do respect the advice. I think that you have a great mindset when it comes to putting in the work, but I also think that you are largely discounting the current risks in the system.

 

The Treasury market literally failed in 2020, and no one batted an eye. Now we're in a period where the fiscal problem is dramatically worse, we have a felon as our president, markets generally are the most overvalued they've ever been, and once again, no one seems to understand or even care.

Yea but they’re trapped. For reasons that take too much time to get into at the moment, the market is not able to dislocate from where it should ultimately settle out. Higher than pre COVID, lower than peak rate fear. Fed might have a mandate, but they CANT raise beyond a certain point. The economy also in its current state, can’t heat up to the point where we have extreme inflation. That’s kinda the biggest fear imo. Some kinda stuckflation, which isn’t necessarily the same as stagflation. Think of it as a straddle in options terms. 

Edited 21 hours ago by Gregmal

[james22]

2 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

The Treasury market literally failed in 2020, and no one batted an eye. Now we're in a period where the fiscal problem is dramatically worse, we have a felon as our president, markets generally are the most overvalued they've ever been, and once again, no one seems to understand or even care.

 

Do you know how I know you've not been reading Hussman investing long?

 

 

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Warren Buffett has a Master's in economics and has a better understanding of this stuff than probably every single Congress person. I would make a large bet that he's quite worried as well.

 

But he's also 94, so maybe not too worried.

And he also has both operating businesses that benefit from pretty much anything macro that will happen, and he also has float. Not many of us do. 

[Blake Hampton]

10 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Do you know how I know you've not been reading Hussman investing long?

 

 

You're the Bitcoin guy. Isn't Bitcoin supposed to be some escape from this madness happening at the top? Do you not carry the same view?

Edited 21 hours ago by Blake Hampton

[whatstheofficerproblem]

17 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Looking forward to revisit this topic after 4 years from now, however, I might by then already then have left CofB&F, dead, calling it all a day.

 

Shut up John, you have a long time ahead of you. We're all in this shitty world together, we aren't letting you leave before us, let's suffer together.

 

Anyways, enough about the Giant Douche vs. Turd Sandwich debate. Can we go back to discussing actual trades?

[Castanza]

@Blake Hampton You might enjoy Morgan Housel’s new book “Same as Ever”.

[james22]

1 hour ago, Blake Hampton said:

You're the Bitcoin guy. Isn't Bitcoin supposed to be some escape from this madness happening at the top? Do you not carry the same view?

 

It always appears mad, Blake.

 

Same as ever.

[adesigar]

What is the view for Oil Services companies like SLB, HAL, BKR ? I thought Drill Baby Drill meant they would be higher. All are down for the year and unchanged from the election. The had a pop after the election but gave it all back.

[Blake Hampton]

25 minutes ago, Castanza said:

@Blake Hampton You might enjoy Morgan Housel’s new book “Same as Ever”.

Just read the first 20 pages and ordered it on Amazon, it's very good. Thanks for the recommendation

[Whensthepaintdry?]

Buffett has also been buying Chubb. Maybe compare their bond portfolio to Fairfax. 

[Blake Hampton]

10 minutes ago, Whensthepaintdry? said:

Buffett has also been buying Chubb. Maybe compare their bond portfolio to Fairfax. 

 

 

Same bond exposure at a little less than half their total assets.

Edited 19 hours ago by Blake Hampton

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

@Blake Hampton You might enjoy Morgan Housel’s new book “Same as Ever”.

 

44 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Just read the first 20 pages and ordered it on Amazon, it's very good. Thanks for the recommendation

 

Yeah, @Castanza

 

It is actually a very good book.

 

Blake [ @Blake Hampton ],

 

Please also remember to share your thoughts about the book by posting about your thoughts of the book after finishing the read of it, in the Book Forum here on CofB&F. The book has it's own separate topic there. 

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, Whensthepaintdry? said:

Buffett has also been buying Chubb. Maybe compare their bond portfolio to Fairfax. 

Chubb lost its shirt in 2022 betting on fixed income, I think 30% of book value was vaporized!  Did not stop Buffett though, but who is he compared to the great Blake Hampton?

[cubsfan]

4 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

I give detailed evidence why I'm cautious right now, and the only response some of you can muster is an insult.

 

Don't take it personally Blake. Greg is a bottom up guy, always has been. Comes up with some pretty amazing picks if you take the time to listen. He's giving you the other side of the coin: if you are skilled and opportunistic - macro opinions are distractions that cause you to miss opportunities.

[Gregmal]

31 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Don't take it personally Blake. Greg is a bottom up guy, always has been. Comes up with some pretty amazing picks if you take the time to listen. He's giving you the other side of the coin: if you are skilled and opportunistic - macro opinions are distractions that cause you to miss opportunities.

Exactly. Blake is young and clearly both intelligent and hardworking. What’s plaguing him, he’s being diagnosed with early, and it’s very curable. Being super macro oriented and bearish is a toxic combo. It is incredibly hard to compound with all the noise, for 2-4 decades which is what a young person must do. 
 

You don’t want to outright ignore stuff, but you need to learn to discount a lot of it. In your 20s and 30s you should be growing your worth by 30-50% a year and most of that isn’t even coming from investing it’s coming from saving. So accumulate and seek out good assets. As bearish as you may be, if you buy something like Berkshire today, and DCF for the next decade or few, it won’t matter how overvalued you thought it was today. Just let the compounding start working and then focus on accumulation rather than preservation.

Edited 16 hours ago by Gregmal

[Gregmal]

32 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Don't take it personally Blake. Greg is a bottom up guy, always has been. Comes up with some pretty amazing picks if you take the time to listen. He's giving you the other side of the coin: if you are skilled and opportunistic - macro opinions are distractions that cause you to miss opportunities.

Exactly. Blake is young and clearly both intelligent and hardworking. What’s plaguing him, he’s being diagnosed with early, and it’s very curable. Being super macro oriented and bearish is a toxic combo. It is incredibly hard to compound with all the noise, for 2-4 decades which is what a young person must do. 
 

You don’t want to outright ignore stuff, but you need to learn to discount a lot of it. In your 20s and 30s you should be growing your worth by 30-50% a year and most of that isn’t even coming from investing it’s coming from saving. So accumulate and seek out good assets. As bearish as you may be, if you buy something like Berkshire today, and DCF for the next decade or few, it won’t matter how overvalued you thought it was today. Just let the compounding start working and then focus on accumulation rather than preservation.

Edited 16 hours ago by Gregmal