President-Elect Trump trades

[Charlie]

13 minutes ago, thowed said:

@dealraker Thanks for the reality check.  In the UK, Brexit is an example - it has been a nightmare finding decent tradespeople for building etc. though arguably this is not because there's been much success in getting rid of immigrants, and possibly more that skilled immigrants find it less attractive being in a country where the economy is stuck e.g. the Poles have been going home where business seems better (also, ironically given 2011, the Greek economy is also pumping!).

 

People don't like immigrants, until they've gone, and people realise what they were doing.

In Germany they call it shortage of skilled workers. It is everywhere.

Polish immigrants are helping a lot in this shortage of labor with home renovations and they are very good.

If you are a skilled worker you can be very choicy. 

God bless skilled workers. 

[cubsfan]

27 minutes ago, thowed said:

People don't like immigrants, until they've gone, and people realise what they were doing.

 

The US has always loved immigrants. What we don't like is crime. We also prefer to see our own troubled, down-on-their luck citizens being taken care of before illegals. Immigration is a wonderful thing if it is measured and meritocratic. IF immigrants refused to assimilate into your culture - you have social division. 

 

It's not all about the money - it's about the American identity and way of life as well.

[Grenville]

3 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

The US has always loved immigrants. What we don't like is crime. We also prefer to see our own troubled, down-on-their luck citizens being taken care of before illegals. Immigration is a wonderful thing if it is measured and meritocratic. IF immigrants refused to assimilate into your culture - you have social division. 

 

It's not all about the money - it's about the American identity and way of life as well.

lol

[Munger_Disciple]

Do you guys think if Trump win + a Republican sweep is good or bad or oil stocks?

[brobro777]

16 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

Do you guys think if Trump win + a Republican sweep is good or bad or oil stocks?

probably neutral/bad, North American supply increase, keep prices low

 

[gfp]

1 hour ago, Munger_Disciple said:

Do you guys think if Trump win + a Republican sweep is good or bad or oil stocks?

 

It seems clear to me that it is good for Natural Gas but Oil I don't think so.  Many producers get uneconomic gas as a byproduct so maybe gas perking up helps "oil companies"

[Munger_Disciple]

Thanks @gfp and @brobro777. I agree that Trump is probably not good/ at best neutral for oil companies.  

[brobro777]

45 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

Thanks @gfp and @brobro777. I agree that Trump is probably not good/ at best neutral for oil companies.  

I mean I'm a moron when it comes to energy or pretty much any other industry except maybe tobacco/cigs so there's a good chance I'll turn out to be wrong but I just think Trump wants low energy prices so companies will be allowed to increase supply...

 

which means some of these cowboys may get stupid ideas about increasing production through massive capital expenditures on new projects and that means little $$$$ for da shareholders

 

Maybe it's different after -$40 per barrel Covid energy crash but I feel like I've watched this episode before...

[Spekulatius]

If you look at the production numbers, you would think that Biden was already drill drill drill.

 

Its all driven by prices and the US production is only a piece of the puzzle.

 

I do agree with energy it’s a bit like with guns - you want democrats for the stocks to do well.

Edited November 8 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

5 hours ago, Munger_Disciple said:

Do you guys think if Trump win + a Republican sweep is good or bad or oil stocks?

 

 

I dont bet on which administration is going to do what. I just continue to bet on the big dog

 

 

 

 

Edited November 8 by Xerxes

[sleepydragon]

1 hour ago, Munger_Disciple said:

Thanks @gfp and @brobro777. I agree that Trump is probably not good/ at best neutral for oil companies.  

there’s also a geo political angle of this. 

[Spekulatius]

TSLA is the perfect stock. A bet on Trump, AI, robots, Self driving cars, energy transition. It’s got everything.

[Munger_Disciple]

If Trump facilitates a deal between Zelensky & Putin, it is good for world oil supplies which will put a downward pressure on oil prices. Trump may also allow new piplelines to be built between Canada & the US, which is also good for oil supplies here. So it is hard to argue Trump is good for oil prices in general. Some say oil companies have "found" fiscal discipline recently but I have my doubts.

[Junior R]

whats with healthcare stocks this week such as jnj , pfe , mrk ? Seems after Trump got elected they stated to dip

Edited November 9 by Junior R

[Munger_Disciple]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

If you look at the production numbers, you would think that Biden was already drill drill drill.

 

That may be a bit misleading due to a lag between actual production and all the permitting processes. So a lot of it might be due to Trump-45. 

[CorpRaider]

On 11/6/2024 at 1:46 PM, KCLarkin said:

Am I delusional or did almost all of the 2016 "trump trades" fail?

 

Going from memory, but IIRC:

Financials

Fannie and Freddie

For-profit prisons

For-profit education?

Manufacturing?

Energy

 

Did any of the 2016 trump trades outperform SPY or QQQ over Trump's term?

Financials worked pretty well for a while until global pandemic but were super cheap.  Probably same thing for value stocks generally.  Should be better for lower basil, steeper curve, more M&A option value.

 

I am tempted to dump O&G exposure.  The regulatory capture/capital scarcity was the feature not a bug.

 

 

Edited November 9 by CorpRaider

[CorpRaider]

21 minutes ago, Junior R said:

whats with healthcare stocks this week such as jnj , pfe , mrk ? Seems after Trump got elected they stated to dip

Probably freakout because might be putting kennedy or his brain worms in charge of FDA.

Edited November 9 by CorpRaider

[brobro777]

I just imagine the scenario where these oil guys commit a bunch of capital to new projects cuz they got all kinda permission from Trump and crude cracks -50% like 2014 to 2016

 

Hoo boy man that's gotta give you the heebie jeebies

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Munger_Disciple said:

 

That may be a bit misleading due to a lag between actual production and all the permitting processes. So a lot of it might be due to Trump-45. 

With shale, the lead in production is pretty short through - maybe 6 month. For an offshore project, that timeframe is longer but that’s not what is driving the production.

 

Drilling on federal land is pretty irrelevant  and that was the case under Trump as well , so the more restriction under a Biden didn’t really matter and was largely symbolic.

[Spekulatius]

4 minutes ago, brobro777 said:

I just imagine the scenario where these oil guys commit a bunch of capital to new projects cuz they got all kinda permission from Trump and crude cracks -50% like 2014 to 2016

 

Hoo boy man that's gotta give you the heebie jeebies

This was more due to the Saudis going fighting for market share than Trump policies.

 

By way, folks here were going bonkers over Biden selling down the strategy oil reserve during the 2022 scare,  but this was absolutely the right decision.

 

I think the crude prices are determined by what happens in China economically.

[sleepydragon]

16 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

This was more due to the Saudis going fighting for market share than Trump policies.

 

By way, folks here were going bonkers over Biden selling down the strategy oil reserve during the 2022 scare,  but this was absolutely the right decision.

 

I think the crude prices are determined by what happens in China economically.

China is hoarding a lot of commodities including crude that they are not using, and they are having a recession. Curious what do you think will happen to oil price and OXY if China invades Taiwan?

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, sleepydragon said:

China is hoarding a lot of commodities including crude that they are not using, and they are having a recession. Curious what do you think will happen to oil price and OXY if China invades Taiwan?

Probably not much unless the US would go for a blockade of Chinese trade flows, which would be the right move, but not sure this would happen.

 

If the blockade were to happen, crude prices would fall a lot , because there would be surplus oil with nowhere to go.

[sleepydragon]

37 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Probably not much unless the US would go for a blockade of Chinese trade flows, which would be the right move, but not sure this would happen.

 

If the blockade were to happen, crude prices would fall a lot , because there would be surplus oil with nowhere to go.

I asked Chat GPT the same question, it says oil price will go up if China invades Taiwan,  

[Munger_Disciple]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

With shale, the lead in production is pretty short through - maybe 6 month. For an offshore project, that timeframe is longer but that’s not what is driving the production.

 

Drilling on federal land is pretty irrelevant  and that was the case under Trump as well , so the more restriction under a Biden didn’t really matter and was largely symbolic.

 

Yes that's a good point about shale which is driving US production. 

[Spekulatius]

7 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

I asked Chat GPT the same question, it says oil price will go up if China invades Taiwan,  

Ask ChatGPT why crude will go up in price. Also ask ChatGPT what will happen if the US blocks maritime trade flows to China, including tankers, or perhaps just tankers and other commodities.