President-Elect Trump trades

[gfp]

It's not a good idea to be 100% sure of anything.  It helps to think in probabilities and keep an open mind.

 

I started my "investment" career doing all kinds of non-Buffett-Munger things.  I paid my bills for years with iron condor premiums on the cash settled SPX and OEX.  I used to buy commodities!  Little lumps of minerals that just sat there doing nothing!

 

We are all big boys and girls here on this forum.  We can think for ourselves and make our own decisions.  We can roll our eyes or whatever.  This isn't a widows and orphans forum.  

 

Should I nuke the thread?  It says I can nuke the thread

[John Hjorth]

3 minutes ago, Luke said:

I have laid out my argument and strongly disagree: If even highly intelligent and good investors like Li Lu only respond to bitcoin by saying "i dont understand it well enough" then that is problematic because it can give unknowing citizens the impression that the ones who own it and spread the news are very smart and this is a good thing to buy. THAT is not constructive for the investment world and dangerous too. ...

 

@Luke,

 

You gotta be kidding me here, right?

 

Again, who are you, where you're employed right now, to serve who, and with which goals and watermarks, to calculate your bonus compensation just after year end!?, right?

 

One of the eternal topics surfacing in my own personal household is the Lady of House going off-the-rails when somebody [typically over the Internet], has been embezzeled other somebody for some money, to which I ask : 'What has that to do with us?' Then : <No answer> - just silence.

 

The first thing one learns in the education of becoming an advisor actually is : 'You simply can't fix everything.'

 

I don't know anything about Li Lu, and honestly, what he's done etc. does not matter one whit to me. I simply don't care about it.

 

Performance [net] is what it is.

[backtothebeach]

13 minutes ago, gfp said:

Should I nuke the thread?  It says I can nuke the thread

 

I'd say nuke the sh!t out of it, but there is some good posts on the first few pages.
 

Maybe start a new one: Second Trump presidency winners and losers - no cripto

Edited 10 hours ago by backtothebeach

[vakilkp]

11 minutes ago, gfp said:

It's not a good idea to be 100% sure of anything.  It helps to think in probabilities and keep an open mind.

 

I started my "investment" career doing all kinds of non-Buffett-Munger things.  I paid my bills for years with iron condor premiums on the cash settled SPX and OEX.  I used to buy commodities!  Little lumps of minerals that just sat there doing nothing!

 

We are all big boys and girls here on this forum.  We can think for ourselves and make our own decisions.  We can roll our eyes or whatever.  This isn't a widows and orphans forum.  

 

Should I nuke the thread?  It says I can nuke the thread

Nuke

[Xerxes]

[Luke]

36 minutes ago, gfp said:

It's not a good idea to be 100% sure of anything.  It helps to think in probabilities and keep an open mind.

 

I started my "investment" career doing all kinds of non-Buffett-Munger things.  I paid my bills for years with iron condor premiums on the cash settled SPX and OEX.  I used to buy commodities!  Little lumps of minerals that just sat there doing nothing!

 

We are all big boys and girls here on this forum.  We can think for ourselves and make our own decisions.  We can roll our eyes or whatever.  This isn't a widows and orphans forum.  

 

Should I nuke the thread?  It says I can nuke the thread

Dont nuke the thread, the board should be open to discuss this and Crypto apparently is the no.1 trump trade right now looking at coinmarketcap and all these coins doing 100% in a couple of weeks

[cubsfan]

51 minutes ago, gfp said:

It's not a good idea to be 100% sure of anything.  It helps to think in probabilities and keep an open mind.

 

I started my "investment" career doing all kinds of non-Buffett-Munger things.  I paid my bills for years with iron condor premiums on the cash settled SPX and OEX.  I used to buy commodities!  Little lumps of minerals that just sat there doing nothing!

 

We are all big boys and girls here on this forum.  We can think for ourselves and make our own decisions.  We can roll our eyes or whatever.  This isn't a widows and orphans forum.  

 

Should I nuke the thread?  It says I can nuke the thread

 

Bombs away!

[RichardGibbons]

The funny thing about this thread is that Buckeye spent so much time trying to discredit bitcoin and the people who promoted it, and in the end, his Socratic method apparently just came down to:

 

"I like stocks and don't like bitcoin, so bitcoin is a scam."

[james22]

5 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

James [ @james22 ],

 

Take it easy. 

 

Over the years [- now actually many years!, James], I've always enjoyed reading your posts here on CoBF. 

 

And I still do, while I'm personally not able to comprehend your posts about cryptocurrencies. And that's on me, not you. 

 

I appreciate it, John, thank you.

 

And likewise, of course.

[james22]

I say leave it open.

 

If only so I can say "I fucking told you so!" next year.

[cubsfan]

14 minutes ago, james22 said:

I say leave it open.

 

If only so I can say "I fucking told you so!" next year.

 

Hahaha!

[gfp]

18 minutes ago, james22 said:

I say leave it open.

 

If only so I can say "I fucking told you so!" next year.

 

Ha!  I was sort of hesitant because the $1.2m one-day move in a private retirement account is pretty legendary and then not only does it not give it back there's another +5% day or whatever it was.  

[Luke]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@Luke,

 

You gotta be kidding me here, right?

 

Again, who are you, where you're employed right now, to serve who, and with which goals and watermarks, to calculate your bonus compensation just after year end!?, right?

 

One of the eternal topics surfacing in my own personal household is the Lady of House going off-the-rails when somebody [typically over the Internet], has been embezzeled other somebody for some money, to which I ask : 'What has that to do with us?' Then : <No answer> - just silence.

 

The first thing one learns in the education of becoming an advisor actually is : 'You simply can't fix everything.'

 

I don't know anything about Li Lu, and honestly, what he's done etc. does not matter one whit to me. I simply don't care about it.

 

Performance [net] is what it is.

I don't understand the entire text you sent and what you mean by it. Could you just write what you mean instead of analogies on top of analogies where readers have to interpret some meaning into this?

[Buckeye]

1 hour ago, RichardGibbons said:

The funny thing about this thread is that Buckeye spent so much time trying to discredit bitcoin and the people who promoted it, and in the end, his Socratic method apparently just came down to:

 

"I like stocks and don't like bitcoin, so bitcoin is a scam."

That is hilarious Richard. Thank you! 

[Buckeye]

2 hours ago, gfp said:

It's not a good idea to be 100% sure of anything.  It helps to think in probabilities and keep an open mind.

 

I started my "investment" career doing all kinds of non-Buffett-Munger things.  I paid my bills for years with iron condor premiums on the cash settled SPX and OEX.  I used to buy commodities!  Little lumps of minerals that just sat there doing nothing!

 

We are all big boys and girls here on this forum.  We can think for ourselves and make our own decisions.  We can roll our eyes or whatever.  This isn't a widows and orphans forum.  

 

Should I nuke the thread?  It says I can nuke the thread

Thank you for your thoughtful reply Gfp. You have made some good points here that I need to better consider. I appreciate you helping me out.

[james22]

28 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

Thank you for your thoughtful reply Gfp. You have made some good points here that I need to better consider. I appreciate you helping me out.

 

On the off-chance you are sincere . . .

 

And setting aside the insanity of believing me getting anyone here to buy bitcoin would somehow register in my wallet . . .

 

Your blinding assumption that bitcoin has no intrinsic value is your error, Buckeye. It is what leads you to believe there can be no real argument for its adoption. You think me a snake oil salesman because snake oil can only be sold by snake oil salesman. 

 

But I'm not promising investment returns to the unsophisticated (or holding a gun to anyone's head).

 

I'm making the argument that bitcoin has value. And so it'll naturally be adopted as understanding of that value grows (and invest returns will follow from that).

 

You think any of these technologies needed to be "sold"?

 

 

You needn't "sell" a better mousetrap. The world will beat a path to your door.

 

Understand the bitcoin network is a real thing:

 

 

[Buckeye]

James, I was and am completely sincere. Thank you for coming back to the thread.  And sorry to all the other board members for really gumming up this thread. Although Bitcoin has clearly been the best Trump trade of them all, so far, I probably should have taken it over to the Crypto thread.  

 

I understand that I have my biases and I also understand that these biases may be incorrect.  To answer your question, yes I think all of those those technologies had to be sold.  Isn't that what GE, Apple, Ford, Microsoft, Boeing all did?  But I see money coming in and products going out.  I don't see that with Bitcoin. 

 

Ok to try to wrap up on a positive note...Price is what you pay and value is what you get, is what Warren has taught us.  Right now Bitcoin is $88k.  What is it worth, in your opinion? 

Edited 5 hours ago by Buckeye

[John Hjorth]

2 hours ago, james22 said:

I say leave it open.

 

If only so I can say "I fucking told you so!" next year.

 

James [ @james22 ],

 

You're killing us!  - It's all about marketing! 

[Buckeye]

3 hours ago, james22 said:

I say leave it open.

 

If only so I can say "I fucking told you so!" next year.

[Xerxes]

Here is a topic that is actually related to Trump trade: about the new cowboy in charge of national security. 
 

Dude’ wife is VP at TC Energy. Don’t know what it means for that name or South Bow. But just thought about posting. 

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7380755

His other Canadian connection: pipeline business

His wife, Julia Nesheiwat, is a vice president for Calgary-based TC Energy Corp.; it's the energy company formerly known as TransCanada, builder of the ill-fated Keystone XL oil pipeline.

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, gfp said:

 

Ha!  I was sort of hesitant because the $1.2m one-day move in a private retirement account is pretty legendary and then not only does it not give it back there's another +5% day or whatever it was.  

well done @james22

happy it worked out for you. 
 

[hasilp89]

Vivek and Elon to lead Doge.

“The Manhattan project of our time.”
$6.5 trillion budget.

how much can they cut

[John Hjorth]

3 hours ago, Luke said:

I don't understand the entire text you sent and what you mean by it. Could you just write what you mean instead of analogies on top of analogies where readers have to interpret some meaning into this?

 

Luca [ @Luke ],

 

Please don't take it too seriously, what I was posting here [above].

 

You have a personal obligation to your own self to weed out information - at your own discretion - read by you here on CoBF -, that does not provide any value in any way to you.

 

In that perspective, I may to you appear a representative of the past, while you constitute the future here on CoBF.

 

Now please go grab it ! : - The future!

 

To win in this game, you have to stay in the game : Get rid of your margin!  -If you excuse yourself with being young as 'an explanation' to being able to come back after a 'blow up' [because of your use of margin], you still haven't really understood how 'the World' works for a young promising guy like you.

 

Such an event would haunt you the rest of your life, and affect existing and future client relations, thereby your future earnings in your lifetime.

 

- - - o 0 o - - - 

 

Stay cool, man! 

[Buckeye]

Trying to help get this thread back on track with Xerxes…A WSJ article from yesterday’s paper titled: “Rest of World’s Growth Is at Trump’s Mercy” talked about trade policies under Trump. I’ve included the link below. 

 

It talks about the US’s current dominant position in the world, giving Trump many new options, with regards to trade, that he didn’t have under Trump 1.0. 
 

It says that the US’s share of output among the Group of Seven is at its highest point since the 1980’s. It bottomed around 35% in 1995 and has most recently risen from 45% around 2010 to almost 60% now. (Can you imagine where we’d be if Sleepy Joe were awake at the wheel for the past four years? )

 

It goes on to say “It means that the president-elect’s plans, including across the board tariffs, could pack an even greater wallop on other countries than the first round of “America First” economic policy. It also gives Trump much more leverage in negotiations over trade policy.

Sounds to me like a good spot to be in for the US, and for Trump! 
 

In continues…”The changes in the global economy have made America, not China, the premier destination for foreign direct investment, enlarging the exposure that foreign companies have to the U.S. economy and changes in government policy. A booming U.S. stock market has attracted huge flows of investment dollars.” 

“The fact that much of the rest of the world is now struggling to generate demand on its own provides more reason for countries to try to reach some sort of accommodation with Trump,” said Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

 

U.S. influence over Europe’s economy is a case in point. The U.S. has cemented its position as Europe’s largest export market as trans-Atlantic trade surged in recent years and China’s imports from Europe stalled. The U.S. has replaced Russia as Europe’s major source of imported energy. Europe runs big trade surpluses with the U.S. but big trade deficits with China.

 

The result is access to the U.S. market is far more important for Europe than access to European markets for the U.S. That asymmetry will give Trump leverage in trade negotiations with Europe, according to economists.

 

Germany exports around 7% of its entire manufacturing value-added to the U.S., but Germany imports only around 0.8% of value-added in U.S. manufacturing, according to a September paper by researchers at Germany’s Ifo Institute for Economic Research. 

 

“German business is vulnerable to Trump,” said Marcel Fratzscher, president of the Berlin-based economic research institute DIW Berlin. 

 

I thought this was an interesting take. So maybe stay away from Germany? Sorry to the Germans on the forum

 

Regarding oil, it mentions "Since the U.S. now exports more energy than it imports—including millions of barrels of oil each month to China—the nation as a whole benefits when energy prices rise, unlike for net importers such as China and Europe."

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/rest-of-worlds-growth-is-at-trumps-mercy-91a48007

 

Edited 3 hours ago by Buckeye

[Xerxes]

53 minutes ago, hasilp89 said:

Vivek and Elon to lead Doge.

“The Manhattan project of our time.”
$6.5 trillion budget.

how much can they cut

From few years ago … hope he kept it for his sake. 
 

not that any of it makes sense.