President-Elect Trump trades

[james22]

11 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

While we're at it why don't we, as BRK shareholders propose that BRK use all its spare cash and buy BTC?  Its a sure thing, right?

 

 

 

[james22]

20 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Why was BTC worth ???% more yesterday than it was the day before?   

 

Remember, you needn't determine the a very exact value for bitcoin, you only need determine that it is worth more than it is being traded at today (by significant margin to make worth the effort).

[73 Reds]

6 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

 

"Widely accepted valuation metrics" is just a fancy way of saying this is what other buyers have recently paid for similar houses in this area, so this is what we think someone might pay for yours.  It is just supply and demand.  Nothing more.  There is no quantifiable "intrinsic" value to a house.   I didn't look at my house and say "look this house has an intrinsic value worth double this", far from it, I thought I overpaid.  I outbid a few other people and paid well over asking.

Its not just supply and demand.  Income property is valued based on an expected return on investment.  Not sure why this concept is so difficult to understand.  If BTC is a currency, the only way to value it is relative to other currencies.  What if BTC traded at $1,000,000 tomorrow?  Would you buy?  Would you sell?  How will you ever know when, or why it is appropriately priced?  

[james22]

15 hours ago, james22 said:

Unless you are convinced there's ZERO chance of bitcoin becoming a recognized asset class, you should invest some time studying it.

 

Because if it does, it will be life-changing.

 

Consider investing in bitcoin like Pascal's Wager.

[rkbabang]

3 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Its not just supply and demand.  Income property is valued based on an expected return on investment.  Not sure why this concept is so difficult to understand.  If BTC is a currency, the only way to value it is relative to other currencies.  What if BTC traded at $1,000,000 tomorrow?  Would you buy?  Would you sell?  How will you ever know when, or why it is appropriately priced?  

 

That's a different market (no one rents out their homes in my town.  If you search for a home to rent in my town of pop 25K people you will not find a single one), but it is still a market.  The rents are driven by supply and demand and that drives what people are willing to pay for the properties.   Why is someone willing to pay $2000/mo for a 1 bedroom apartment today when 10 years ago it would have been half that?   The USD hasn't lost half its buying power in 10 years.  It is supply and demand.  The market.  Prices rise and prices fall. This is why socialism and planned economies don't work.  No agriculture minister can set an appropriate price for grain and no housing minister can set an appropriate price for housing, because there is no such thing as an appropriate price.  It is only what is someone likely to pay today?

[73 Reds]

12 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

1. There'd be no return if valuation where easy, yeah? 

 

2. Maybe this isn't for you and your hammer? 

 

3. How do you think growth investors value companies?

 

4. Consider rate of adoption and catalysts.

 

Extraordinary performance comes only from correct nonconsensus forecasts.

 

If you really want to see information asymmetry, check out the MSTR thread.  Value investors insist on considering NAV alone.

 

1.  Valuation of certain assets are indeed that easy.  2.  Categorically, any price paid has to make sense.  The asset is not what is important, what matters is how it can reasonably be valued.  Supply and demand is simply a cop-out answer that only applies to the last marginal transaction.  3.  I don't distinguish between growth investing and value investing.  There are elements of each in the way I would value any investment.  4.  How do rate of adoption and catalysts for use translate into an ascertainable price today?

 

Again, the issue is not the asset itself but how it can be valued and priced when there is nothing of real substance backing it and it is based primarily on a belief that is not so dissimilar to a passing fancy.   To me, the poster child for the Greater Fool's Theory. 

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

That's a different market (no one rents out their homes in my town.  If you search for a home to rent in my town of pop 25K people you will not find a single one), but it is still a market.  The rents are driven by supply and demand and that drives what people are willing to pay for the properties.   Why is someone willing to pay $2000/mo for a 1 bedroom apartment today when 10 years ago it would have been half that?   The USD hasn't lost half its buying power in 10 years.  It is supply and demand.  The market.  Prices rise and prices fall. This is why socialism and planned economies don't work.  No agriculture minister can set an appropriate price for grain and no housing minister can set an appropriate price for housing, because there is no such thing as an appropriate price.  It is only what is someone likely to pay today?

Location.  And all residential properties have rental value unless renting is otherwise restricted.  

[toughcall]

On 11/11/2024 at 2:54 PM, Buckeye said:

Ok so just to recap Bitcoin...we've now heard from all of the paid advertisements on this thread that...

 

1. Bitcoin is just like gold!....Gold has been around for generations and Bitcoin has been around for 15 years!  Huh, thats interesting, ok.  My 2009 4Runner has been around for 15 years I guess it's like gold too!  

 

2. Bitcoin is just like a currency!...even though most currencies are backed by the full faith of their governments.  Thankfully we have the US Military to protect our interests in the US Dollar.  Bitcoin has the Bitcoin Bros to defend it...you can see it in this thread.

 

3.  Bitcoin is like your friend's and family!...except your friends and family will be there to laugh with you, to cry with you, to support you when you need it, to take you to the doctor, to enjoy a ball game or concert with you.  Please let me know when Bitcoin can do any of that.

 

4.  Bitcoin is just like a Picasso painting!...except a Picasso painting is absolutely gorgeous to look at (if you're into artwork) and they are one of a kind/very limited in quantity.  And before you Bros reply that...see Picasso's are limited in quantity...just like Bitcoin!...the turd that I just flushed down the toilet was one of a kind, but I am pretty sure it doesn't have much value:)  

 

5.  And then the grand daddy of them all...Bitcoin is going to be so valuable when the value of the US Dollar and the entire US financial system collapses!  So your investment thesis rely's upon the collapse of the US financial system?  And you as a owner of Bitcoin now have a vested interest in that collapse. As an American that is super weird to me.

If one is really curious about bitcoin start with -> Proof of work concept. For me it changed everything. I still remember it clearly, i just got it, Bitcoin is encrypted energy. Then I explored more from there. That's a genuine potential life changing recommendation. 


(I get both sides in these kinds of discussions. For the well read Bitcoiner its tiering with very superficial critics popping up everywhere.I used to be that kind of critic myself. For the No read - No-coiner looking in, it's all so stupid, I get it.)

[james22]

Just now, 73 Reds said:

1.  Valuation of certain assets are indeed that easy.

 

Nothing is easier for me to value than bitcoin.

 

I understand it is objectively a better form of money than anything else.

 

21 hours ago, james22 said:

If given the choice of what money to accept, people will accept the money they believe to be of highest long-term value, and not accept what they believe to be of low long-term value. If not given the choice and required to accept all money, good and bad, they will tend to keep the money of greater perceived value in their own possession and pass the bad money to others.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham's_law

 

Unlike any company, I don't need worry about competition. Only speed of adoption.

 

Luckily, there's an opportunity to make money because others don't see its coming adoption.

[Buckeye]

36 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

Yes, that would be the best thing BRK could do with it's cash right now.

Of course you think this RKBA because it personally benefits you and your greed.

Edited November 12 by Buckeye

[changegonnacome]

30 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Coinbase CEO today says "thousands of new coins coming to market...basically every company will have one...and these assets will create trillions of value that will rival the stock exchanges."

 

Everything old is new again! Looks like we might need to relearn an important lesson from a hundred years ago about what happens when you allow your economy to become a casino.

 

Folks would do well to read about blue sky securities of the 1920's............which was the last time we allowed thousands of 'coins' then called shares to come to market with a story attached from snake oil promoters to be sold to the gullible public with near no controls, no registrations and disclosures while providing 100 to 1 leverage to the end purchaser.

 

Out of it of course we got the Great Depression........and then the 1933 act which put controls around the selling of investment contracts to the public and then the 1934 act which created the exchanges, broker-dealers & clearing house infrastructure that created the most robust capital markets in the world.

[james22]

9 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

1.  Valuation of certain assets are indeed that easy. 

 

How does one make money trading an asset with a certain valuation?

 

9 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

2.  Categorically, any price paid has to make sense.  The asset is not what is important, what matters is how it can reasonably be valued.  Supply and demand is simply a cop-out answer that only applies to the last marginal transaction. 

 

Reasonable people can disagree on valuations. That's what makes a market.

 

And supply and demand always apply.

 

9 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

3.  I don't distinguish between growth investing and value investing.  There are elements of each in the way I would value any investment. 

 

You bough into the early Google/Amazon/etc. stories?

 

9 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

4.  How do rate of adoption and catalysts for use translate into an ascertainable price today?

 

That's for you to figure out. That's what investing is.

 

9 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Again, the issue is not the asset itself but how it can be valued and priced when there is nothing of real substance backing it and it is based primarily on a belief that is not so dissimilar to a passing fancy.   To me, the poster child for the Greater Fool's Theory. 

 

The first issue is understanding why you dismiss the explanation that bitcoin is backed by the world's most powerful computer network?

[alxcii]

22 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Its not just supply and demand.  Income property is valued based on an expected return on investment.  Not sure why this concept is so difficult to understand.  If BTC is a currency, the only way to value it is relative to other currencies.  What if BTC traded at $1,000,000 tomorrow?  Would you buy?  Would you sell?  How will you ever know when, or why it is appropriately priced?  

 

I'd like to hear you invert this - At what BTC price will you know you were wrong?

 

1 minute ago, Buckeye said:

Of course you think this RKBA because it personally benefits you and your greed.

 

"Come use shiny yellow rock, is better for everyone"

"No, yellow rock bad because you benefit from me using yellow rock. I stick with seashells."

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, james22 said:

 

How does one make money trading an asset with a certain valuation?

 

 

Reasonable people can disagree on valuations. That's what makes a market.

 

And supply and demand always apply.

 

 

You bough into the early Google/Amazon/etc. stories?

 

 

That's for you to figure out. That's what investing is.

 

 

The first issue is understanding why you dismiss the explanation that bitcoin is backed by the world's most powerful computer network?

"World's most powerful computer network":  Please define.

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, alxcii said:

 

I'd like to hear you invert this - At what BTC price will you know you were wrong?

 

 

"Come use shiny yellow rock, is better for everyone"

"No, yellow rock bad because you benefit from me using yellow rock. I stick with seashells."

Why do you assume I am wrong?  Serious question.

[james22]

2 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

"World's most powerful computer network":  Please define.

 

 

[dealraker]

9 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Everything old is new again! Looks like we might need to relearn an important lesson from a hundred years ago about what happens when you allow your economy to become a casino.

 

Folks would do well to read about blue sky securities of the 1920's............which was the last time we allowed thousands of 'coins' then called shares to come to market with a story attached from snake oil promoters to be sold to the gullible public with near no controls, no registrations and disclosures while providing 100 to 1 leverage to the end purchaser.

 

Out of it of course we got the Great Depression........and then the 1933 act which put controls around the selling of investment contracts to the public and then the 1934 act which created the exchanges, broker-dealers & clearing house infrastructure that created the most robust capital markets in the world.

The dot.com bubble eventually lost 1.7 trillion.  My guess, given the numbers in the link below, that we have quite some time to go on the upside.  In any event assets without earnings rule the roost nowadays and yet again I do enjoy watching.  At some point there is an investor on this COBF forums who I'd put a quarter of my net worth on in a bet that he "outperforms" 95-99% of us over the next 5 years.  He is 50% cash by the way.

 

https://coinmarketcap.com/

Edited November 12 by dealraker

[tnathan]

On 11/9/2024 at 2:58 PM, 73 Reds said:

That's exactly right.  But one can't be for enforcement of laws but only those laws that suit one's own needs. 

Look we all know that Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme until it creates real utility. Crypto / blockchain does have a chance of creating tons of utility at some point. We also know that asset prices move up when demand is more than supply. I don't think we need to make this that much more complicated. If enough people want to own crypto and it keeps making ATHs after multiple cycles, there's a greater and greater chance it is here to stay. There's going to be tons of demand for people / governments to have just a few % of their reserves in this, and that will push BTC price higher. End of story stop arguing about this stuff its dumb

[toughcall]

16 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

So again trying to understand, BTC is backed by folks in very small, oppressed economies with a belief that it is superior to their own currency.  I suppose that is something but I have no idea how that equates to sustaining its current price, or any price for that matter.  If these small economies over time become more prosperous, who then needs BTC, and why?  In other words, BTC has the full faith and credit of what?

150 TWh and now it looks like the most powerful government in the world is game. Do we need more backing?

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, james22 said:

 

 

The speaker classifies computer power as a commodity.  Not sure how or why.  He then concludes without any substantiation whatsoever that the world's computer power today is worth at least 1 trillion dollars.  No one is a buyer of the world's computer power.  The fact that an intangible force creates benefit doesn't mean that the intangible force can be valued, bought or sold for any measurable price.  And computer power benefits all of us in almost every facet of life; we're not quantifying and marketing each such facet as an investable asset.  

[Buckeye]

2 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

The issue for me is that none of your info provides any reasonable, quantifiable way to value BTC.   

Thank you Red for picking up the baton and carrying on the good fight!  Please don't forget that every Tapeworm who owns Bitcoin has a financial incentive to discuss this topic with you as nauseam, trying to change your mind.  Where you and I are working for free

 

I think Blake really helped show us who these Bitcoin Bros (or Ho's?) are.  He talked about how he was really going to miss Buffet and how when he is gone, this country is going to need a financial lighthouse now more than ever. 

 

Well James immediately responded with our solution and has crowned Michael Saylor, one of the biggest pieces of shit in the world, as our next Warren Buffet!!  Phew, thank you James!! Buffet isn't even gone and James has found his replacement.  See how great Bitcoin is? 

 

Warren Buffet, with his decades and decades of thoughtful discussions and writings, on all aspects of life, will be replaced by the Bitcoin Ho's with their King Douchebag Saylor, who said everyone should sell everything they have and buy Bitcoin!  Of course he did, because it benefits him.  Saylor is Captain of the SS Shitstorm and he needs more passengers!!  Grab your oars everyone on COBF!!

 

By the way, did James ever respond to the question about Satoshi writing him checks?  Of course he didn't, and he never will.  Because he has all of the answers (like the rest of them) and as soon as you press him on the details, he disappears. It's the ball under the blanket with this crew.  He'll be back soon with another reason why you should buy Bitcoin.

 

Every 1/2 truth, is compounded by another 1/2 truth and another 1/2 truth.  Their Bitcoin is the solution to everthing, because once you buy it, the only thing left to do is to try to come up with reasons why it's so great, to try to try to entice others into bidding up their share.

 

Scumbags.

Edited November 12 by Buckeye

[Buckeye]

17 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

 

The most powerful computer network!?!   Cue the Conan O'Brien dork voice!  What a douchebag! 

Edited November 12 by Buckeye

[james22]

I'm out.

 

Enjoy being poor.

[rkbabang]

30 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

Of course you think this RKBA because it personally benefits you and your greed.

 

 

Yes, as a BRKB shareholder it would.  I think it would benefit all BRK shareholders and their greed.

[73 Reds]

4 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

Thank you Red for picking up the baton and carrying on the good fight!  Please don't forget that every Tapeworm who owns Bitcoin has a financial incentive to discuss this topic with you, trying to change your mind.  Where you and I are working for free

 

I think Blake really helped show us who these Bitcoin Bros (or Ho's?) are.  He talked about how he was really going to miss Buffet and how when he is gone, this country is going to need a financial lighthouse now more than ever. 

 

Well James immediately responded with our solution and has crowned Michael Saylor, one of the biggest pieces of shit in the world, as our next Warren Buffet!!  Phew, thank you James!! Buffet isn't even gone and James has found his replacement.  See how great Bitcoin is? 

 

Warren Buffet, with his decades and decades of thoughtful discussions and writings, on all aspects of life, will be replaced by the Bitcoin Ho's with their King Douchebag Saylor, who said everyone should sell everything they have and buy Bitcoin!  Of course he did, because it benefits him.  Saylor is Captain of the SS Shitstorm and he needs more passengers!!  Grab your oars everyone on COBF!!

 

By the way, did James every respond to the question about Satoshi writing him checks?  Of course he didn't, and he never will.  Because he has all of the answers (like the rest of them) and as soon as you press him on the details he disappears. It's the ball under the blanket with this crew.

 

Every 1/2 truth, is compounded by another 1/2 truth and another 1/2 truth.  Their Bitcoin is the solution to everthing, because once you buy it, the only thing left to do is to try to come up with reasons why it's so great, to try to try to entice others into bidding up their share.

 

Scumbags.

I am genuinely trying to understand the thought process behind valuing BTC.  There are no standards of valuation known to me that make any sense and "supply and demand" simply endorses the efficient market theory which essentially says that Buffett was simply lucky.