Iran - Israel - Gaza Conflict

[cubsfan]

Hamas barely hanging on:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/10/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-agreement-within-reach/

 

Hamas, in “rough shape” in its underground lair, according to one U.S. official, is said to be low on ammunition and supplies. It’s also facing growing pressure from battered Palestinian civilians, who are increasingly vocal in demanding a truce.

[cubsfan]

First 4 minutes reviews the elimination of Hamas leader, Mohammed Deif and another major Hamas figure.  Hamas top leadership continues to be destroyed.

 

 

[Eldad]

On 7/11/2024 at 2:35 PM, cubsfan said:

Hamas barely hanging on:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/10/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-agreement-within-reach/

 

Hamas, in “rough shape” in its underground lair, according to one U.S. official, is said to be low on ammunition and supplies. It’s also facing growing pressure from battered Palestinian civilians, who are increasingly vocal in demanding a truce.

That’s good news. 
 

Saw where Eisman said if Biden is not already sunk, the kids burning Israli and US flags at the Dem convention will seal the deal.  

[cubsfan]

Hamas rejects latest ceasefire, along with hostage release.

 

Good news is that now that almost all Hamas leadership is dead - Sinwar, the current Hamas leader is a dead man walking.

 

https://saraacarter.com/hamas-rejects-ceasefire-and-hostage-negotiations-amid-disputes-with-israel/

 

Next up: Hezbollah

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Hamas rejects latest ceasefire, along with hostage release.

 

Good news is that now that almost all Hamas leadership is dead - Sinwar, the current Hamas leader is a dead man walking.

 

https://saraacarter.com/hamas-rejects-ceasefire-and-hostage-negotiations-amid-disputes-with-israel/

 

Next up: Hezbollah

I think the big question is how expendable that leadership is. There are plenty others who are willing to start where the past leadership failed or got killed. For example killing Bin Laden did little to reduce terror. It’s a never ending whack a mole.

Edited August 20 by Spekulatius

[lnofeisone]

I've been tracking this one closely. I think Hamas, as an organization, is largely incapacitated. They have the people but they don't have the weapons. Their leader got assassinated on foreign soil, and all they could do was shoot 10 rockets.

 

Israel's control of Philadelphi corridor has cut off all major weapon flows (I love the hypocrisy of not looking at Egypt as a responsible party here). This is why Israel wants to stay at Philadelphi and it probably makes sense. Same with Netzarim. 

 

I do think Hamas brought a lot of pain onto Gazans. The civilians are fatigued and there isn't really an end. Israel won't agree to two-state solution, and two-state solution is a pre-condition to a lot of arab/US support. So an impasse for sure. 

 

As far as Hamas goes, their time is near the end. If Israel keeps its presence at Philadelphi, and Netzarim and moves the border into Gaza, it will be viewed as shameful by the average Gazan. Shame brought by Hamas. Hamas fighters will likely dissolve into the populace and join in with other organizations. The game of whack-a-mole continues. 

 

 

[73 Reds]

12 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Hamas rejects latest ceasefire, along with hostage release.

 

Good news is that now that almost all Hamas leadership is dead - Sinwar, the current Hamas leader is a dead man walking.

 

https://saraacarter.com/hamas-rejects-ceasefire-and-hostage-negotiations-amid-disputes-with-israel/

 

Next up: Hezbollah

Does anyone expect Hamas to act rationally?  The question for everyone who criticizes Israel's objective of completely eliminating Hamas is, what would you propose?

[cubsfan]

11 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I think the big question is how expendable that leadership is. There are plenty others who are willing to start where the past leadership failed or got killed. For example killing Bin Laden did little to reduce terror. It’s a never ending whack a mole.

 

Oh, I agree. They will just keep getting themselves killed now.  Think how paranoid they must be at this point.  A large portion of the population hates them - the leaders are being betrayed while the informants get paid off. Now with Gaza destroyed, Hezbollah has this to look forward too. 

 

Most of the Oct 7th planners are now dead - and the blowhards in Iran know this. You can be sure Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon is doing their own calculus on them ending up like Gaza.

 

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Does anyone expect Hamas to act rationally?  The question for everyone who criticizes Israel's objective of completely eliminating Hamas is, what would you propose?

 

The proposal is on the table basically: unless Gaza wants more of the same - stop fighting, give up the hostages, turn on your Oct 7th planners (what few are left).

 

Nothing much has really changed with these demands, now it will be forced upon them unless they want to continue to live in a war zone. A war that they started.

[Castanza]

12 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I think the big question is how expendable that leadership is. There are plenty others who are willing to start where the past leadership failed or got killed. For example killing Bin Laden did little to reduce terror. It’s a never ending whack a mole.

 

Drunk driving laws have done little to reduce drinking and driving. You cannot just ignore consequences because someone else may take a similar action. At the same time, you cannot expect change from a top down approach. Capital Punishment has pretty much never worked all throughout history. The Middle East is a mess though. The best path forward is probably establishing some type of relations that lift those countries in a positive manner economically and hope they change some of their cultural ways over time organically (if they choose). Straight up conflict certainly doesn't work, nor does forced compliance. Especially between very different cultures. Countries change when the people of those countries have a will to change their ways. Really, it's people in general. 

[73 Reds]

3 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

Drunk driving laws have done little to reduce drinking and driving. You cannot just ignore consequences because someone else may take a similar action. At the same time, you cannot expect change from a top down approach. Capital Punishment has pretty much never worked all throughout history. The Middle East is a mess though. The best path forward is probably establishing some type of relations that lift those countries in a positive manner economically and hope they change some of their cultural ways over time organically (if they choose). Straight up conflict certainly doesn't work, nor does forced compliance. Especially between very different cultures. Countries change when the people of those countries have a will to change their ways. Really, it's people in general. 

With whom among Hamas or any such organization would you establish such relations?  In fact how can a Western thinking culture establish relations with people who elect - by force or otherwise - terrorists to lead and govern them?

[Castanza]

3 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

With whom among Hamas or any such organization would you establish such relations?  In fact how can a Western thinking culture establish relations with people who elect - by force or otherwise - terrorists to lead and govern them?

 

Sorry, comment was more on Middle East as a whole (per Speks Osama comment). I think likely what I said is wishful thinking as the ship has probably sailed. Once these terror groups began popping up we figured out pretty quickly in the GWOT that killing one member creates two more. As I said, the cultures are likely too different (US). You're right there isn't much you can do other than try to root them out at this point. But has that ever worked? No, will it ever work? likely no.....it's a catch-22. You have to play the hand you're dealt (or dealt yourself in the case of the US). The Taliban now runs Afghanistan after a 20 year hiatus. If your goal as a nation of influence is to improve living standards what options do you have? Bomb their infrastructure and continue to kill millions of civilians for another 20 years? Glass it? Or find some ways to negotiate? Pull out entirely and leave it alone indefinitely? 

 

Maybe looking to South America is a slightly better example? The governments there (although massively corrupt) have ever so slightly more professional relationships between the cartel and government in some aspects. This seems to allow the US more operating room economically. We do a significant amount of manufacturing south of the border. Things change very slowly (living standard/culturally), but if history is indication of the "best" ways to change nations, it's almost always by providing positive economic incentives. And all this is really only if you believe the proper path forward is improved living standards at the cost of culture (which is a very western framed view). Remember, during the GWOT, there were a lot of soldiers who would hand out stacks of cash to village elders saying "build schools, build medical facilities" and would be met with nothing but "how about just leave us alone?"

 

Regarding the Hamas, Israel conflict, I hope Israel destroys Hamas. I think they don't have a choice and are justified in their actions. I think their will be a lot of unintended consequences and civilian casualties. Welcome to war...welcome to history. 

 

"Beware the leader who bangs the drums of war in order to whip the citizenry into a patriotic fervor."

William Shakespeare

 

"War is a nations way of eating" - Will Durant

 

 

[Dinar]

1 minute ago, Castanza said:

 

Sorry, comment was more on Middle East as a whole (per Speks Osama comment). I think likely what I said is wishful thinking as the ship has probably sailed. Once these terror groups began popping up we figured out pretty quickly in the GWOT that killing one member creates two more. As I said, the cultures are likely too different (US). You're right there isn't much you can do other than try to root them out at this point. But has that ever worked? No, will it ever work? likely no.....it's a catch-22. You have to play the hand you're dealt (or dealt yourself in the case of the US). The Taliban now runs Afghanistan after a 20 year hiatus. If your goal as a nation of influence is to improve living standards what options do you have? Bomb their infrastructure and continue to kill millions of civilians for another 20 years? Glass it? Or find some ways to negotiate? Pull out entirely and leave it alone indefinitely? 

 

Maybe looking to South America is a slightly better example? The governments there (although massively corrupt) have ever so slightly more professional relationships between the cartel and government in some aspects. This seems to allow the US more operating room economically. We do a significant amount of manufacturing south of the border. Things change very slowly (living standard/culturally), but if history is indication of the "best" ways to change nations, it's almost always by providing positive economic incentives. And all this is really only if you believe the proper path forward is improved living standards at the cost of culture (which is a very western framed view). Remember, during the GWOT, there were a lot of soldiers who would hand out stacks of cash to village elders saying "build schools, build medical facilities" and would be met with nothing but "how about just leave us alone?"

 

Regarding the Hamas, Israel conflict, I hope Israel destroys Hamas. I think they don't have a choice and are justified in their actions. I think their will be a lot of unintended consequences and civilian casualties. Welcome to war...welcome to history. 

 

"Beware the leader who bangs the drums of war in order to whip the citizenry into a patriotic fervor."

William Shakespeare

 

"War is a nations way of eating" - Will Durant

 

 

What you are missing is culture.  Koran explicitly tells Muslims that they must either kill or subjugate all non-Muslims, there is no compromise.  There is nothing in Mexican culture that calls for murder of Americans.   Look at the history of Islam and the Middle East.  Where are the Christians of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, etc?  Where are the Zoroastrians of Iran?  Greeks and Armenians who had lived in what is now Turkey for thousands of years were killed by the millions and expelled by Turks 100 years ago.   Look at Bangladesh - there are attacks on Hindus there right now.  Look at Pakistan - Christians are routinely murdered there.   Islam calls for murder and conquest of all non-Muslims, how do you negotiate with people whose guide to life calls for killing you?  

[cubsfan]

^^ Exactly, there is no negotiation with radical Islam, there is only strength. That's why you target leadership and those foolish enough to follow.

 

Currently, Israel is dealing from a position of strength in Gaza. The Palestinians, useful idiots for Iran, seriously miscalculated on Oct 7th. After their celebration of the massacre, they expected more allies to come to their rescue. Now those allies know what's in store for them.

 

Meanwhile, the happiest Muslims in the region live in Israel - 2 million of them!

They want NO part of this nonsense that their muslim "brothers" started.

[Castanza]

21 minutes ago, Dinar said:

What you are missing is culture.  Koran explicitly tells Muslims that they must either kill or subjugate all non-Muslims, there is no compromise.  There is nothing in Mexican culture that calls for murder of Americans.   Look at the history of Islam and the Middle East.  Where are the Christians of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, etc?  Where are the Zoroastrians of Iran?  Greeks and Armenians who had lived in what is now Turkey for thousands of years were killed by the millions and expelled by Turks 100 years ago.   Look at Bangladesh - there are attacks on Hindus there right now.  Look at Pakistan - Christians are routinely murdered there.   Islam calls for murder and conquest of all non-Muslims, how do you negotiate with people whose guide to life calls for killing you?  

 

Oh I'm not missing it, I agree and understand completely. I would ague the crusades never truly ended (European cities aren't doing great if you ask me).

 

*A better substitution for negotiate would be interact on an economic level.

 

Interact economically, Ignore culturally/economically, War <--- really there are no other options historically and none of them are perfect. The longer you go, the more likely you are to experience them all, especially the greater the cultural difference. Selfishly, I (like most) prefer to live in a country that can swing the biggest stick, has the highest standard of living, and allows me to raise my family in a safe and prosperous environment. The question is, which of the "three traits" do you need to pick in order to achieve that with some consistency over your life?

[Xerxes]

Wow. Silly me.
 

And I thought the multi-decade Israeli-Palestinian conflict was nationalistic one. Not a religious one. 

Learning new things from my fellow North Americans. 
 

If Hamas was a secular entity, would their terrorism be considered less terroristy ? I don’t think so. Was PLO secular or religious … 
 

Half dozen posts today on this thread, and no one dared to call out the current Israeli government what it really is. A racist extremist government. And not much different than most other governments in the Middle East, except that it can be democratically removed. But the fact your North American “programming” prevents you from acknowledging that, speaks volume and undermined most of your collective arguments. 
 

note: I said current. So no one gets excited and accuse me of being against Israel. As they had governments before that were not ran by racists idiots and morons. Warmongering, I can tolerate, racism. No. 

[73 Reds]

3 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Wow. Silly me.
 

And I thought the multi-decade Israeli-Palestinian conflict was nationalistic one. Not a religious one. 

Learning new things from my fellow North Americans. 
 

If Hamas was a secular entity, would their terrorism be considered less terroristy ? I don’t think so. Was PLO secular or religious … 
 

Half dozen posts today on this thread, and no one dared to call out the current Israeli government what it really is. A racist extremist government. And not much different than most other governments in the Middle East, except that it can be democratically removed. But the fact your North American “programming” prevents you from acknowledging that, speaks volume and undermined most of your collective arguments. 
 

note: I said current. So no one gets excited and accuse me of being against Israel. As they had governments before that were not ran by racists idiots and morons. Warmongering, I can tolerate, racism. No. 

Western governments come and go.  One can love or hate Israel's current leadership but at least the populace has an opportunity to effect change, as often as necessary.  My (admittedly naive) hope many years ago was that perhaps technology and social media might effect a widespread change of thinking in the youth living in Gaza, the West Bank and other terrorist-run regions and countries.  Not that it was, or is easily accessible but once the cat is out of the bag so to speak, the hope was they'd at least begin to understand what they are missing and ultimately find a way to choose a better path.    

[cubsfan]

8 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Wow. Silly me.
 

And I thought the multi-decade Israeli-Palestinian conflict was nationalistic one. Not a religious one. 

Learning new things from my fellow North Americans. 
 

If Hamas was a secular entity, would their terrorism be considered less terroristy ? I don’t think so. Was PLO secular or religious … 
 

Half dozen posts today on this thread, and no one dared to call out the current Israeli government what it really is. A racist extremist government. And not much different than most other governments in the Middle East, except that it can be democratically removed. But the fact your North American “programming” prevents you from acknowledging that, speaks volume and undermined most of your collective arguments. 
 

note: I said current. So no one gets excited and accuse me of being against Israel. As they had governments before that were not ran by racists idiots and morons. Warmongering, I can tolerate, racism. No. 

 

 @Xerxes  You're a good man and well respected around here. Consider the arguments carefully. I'd say MOST of us are opposed to RADICAL Islam - that is exactly the problem here. RADICAL.

Don't forget it - and you are not being accused of anything.

 

There are a lot of happy Muslims in Israel - why are they not radicalized? Because they have a good life. 

 

Who has destroyed Gaza - Hamas, the radicals that you, yourself acknowledge.

 

So you hate the Israeli government and Bibi. Your call on that brother.

The nation is in the fight of it's life. In addition to the massacre, there are 100,000 displaced Israelis from the north. There are still hostages. You expect Bibi to take his foot off the throat of Hamas?

 

Seriously @Xerxes --- In North America - NO one celebrates the KKK, and you are not the type that celebrates RADICAL Islam.  So take the criticism for what it is: the only chance for peace is for Muslims to disown Radical Islam. 

 

Racism is not the issue - Fanaticism is the issue.

[cubsfan]

57 minutes ago, Dinar said:

What you are missing is culture.  Koran explicitly tells Muslims that they must either kill or subjugate all non-Muslims, there is no compromise.  There is nothing in Mexican culture that calls for murder of Americans.   Look at the history of Islam and the Middle East.  Where are the Christians of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, etc?  Where are the Zoroastrians of Iran?  Greeks and Armenians who had lived in what is now Turkey for thousands of years were killed by the millions and expelled by Turks 100 years ago.   Look at Bangladesh - there are attacks on Hindus there right now.  Look at Pakistan - Christians are routinely murdered there.   Islam calls for murder and conquest of all non-Muslims, how do you negotiate with people whose guide to life calls for killing you?  

 

And certainly with this post from @Dinar - I'd have to agree with everything, except preface it with radical...

 

Feel free to educate me if I am wrong - but please tell me where Muslims, Jews, and Christians can live side by side in the Middle East - except for Israel.  I know of no other Muslim country as the Jews and Christians have all been driven out or murdered.  Or, as in Lebanon , have formed militias to defend themselves.

 

That radical Islam has taken and destroyed large portions of the Middle East is exactly what the USA, Britain and much of Europe need to fear - because it's coming to their countries as well.

 

Radical Islam has ZERO tolerance for other cultures.

[Castanza]

@Xerxes

 

Who has claim to the land of Israel and why?

 

Nationalism exists everywhere. Some nationalism in some places has much closer ties to religion than others. 
 

In Islamic nations the religion IS the culture and it drives the nationalism. In Western nations religion exists under a culture secondary to nationalism. I think Dinar is trying to highlight the concern with Islam nations. They have a religion that drives culture, policy, and nationalism which if followed does not allow for mutual existence with non Islamic nations long term. Perhaps not a conversation for this forum. You could probably make this same argument for the Judaism as well but I’m less certain on their cohabitation approach. I don’t think the Torah (Old Testament) calls for destruction of everyone else. 

[73 Reds]

3 minutes ago, Castanza said:

@Xerxes

 

Who has claim to the land of Israel and why?

 

Nationalism exists everywhere. Some nationalism in some places has much closer ties to religion than others. 
 

In Islamic nations the religion IS the culture and it drives the nationalism. In Western nations religion exists under a culture secondary to nationalism. I think Dinar is trying to highlight the concern with Islam nations. They have a religion that drives culture, policy, and nationalism which if followed does not allow for mutual existence with non Islamic nations long term. Perhaps not a conversation for this forum. You could probably make this same argument for the Judaism as well but I’m less certain on their cohabitation approach. I don’t think the Torah (Old Testament) calls for destruction of everyone else. 

So to circle back to the original question, what alternative short of complete eradication of Hammas, whether possible or not, does Israel have?  

[cubsfan]

^^^ None.  Israel can not coexist with Hamas. And Hamas has made their position perfectly clear.

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ None.  Israel can not coexist with Hamas. And Hamas has made their position perfectly clear.

So you believe there is no other way to change an ideology?  I'm not trying to put you or anyone on the spot here, just that I don't have an answer and this is an intelligent group where a discussion like this can be had without emotion getting too much in the way (thanks for that!)

[cubsfan]

We are beyond changing the ideology in the case of Israel or Gaza. That is why it has come to war. It has happened over and over in history: Militaristic Japan, Fascist Italy, Nazi Germany

 

One winner, one loser.

 

At this point, you defeat it, you don't tolerate it - and you start over. 

Unfortunately it means the Gaza Palestinians accept regime change and start from ground zero again.

If not - no peace.

 

Ask yourself what might happen if the fanatical KKK ideology made a resurgence in America.

I would hope at some point, American's would destroy the movement as something they could not live with - no compromise.

[Castanza]

30 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

So to circle back to the original question, what alternative short of complete eradication of Hammas, whether possible or not, does Israel have?  

Dual State agreement of some sort. But there would still be violence for sure. Probably would look much like it did pre Oct 7th attack. 
 

Islamic country (x) takes the Palestinians in as refugees 

 

Negotiations/agreement with a third party serving as proxy. US would likely be this party and would likely require security forces or occupation by US troops of some sort. Think Roman 63BCE but with US Marines instead of Roman Legionnaires. 
 

Which one is most favorable?